저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
플랫폼 기업(Zomato, Swiggy 등)의 높은 밸류에이션을 비판하며, 현금흐름 없는 고평가 기업은 지속되기 어렵다고 주장. 장기적으로 현금창출력 중심의 전통 우량주(Nestle, Asian Paints 등)를 선호. 일부 IPO는 성공하지만 다수는 실패할 것이라 봄. 밸류에이션 이탈 시점 판단의 중요성 강조.
다듬은 글
two lessons first lesson in life is what I buy is very very important and what price I buy is most important right good luck Val 9,000 cles and let Tesla be 6 billi 6 trillion but I not going to buy these stocks and these valuations right and second thing is we always overrate change especially this teis change comes but much slower than anti P without so much focus on valuation I believe to great company what you need is an opportunity frugality corporate governance technology the ability to change and if the race is not ending tomorrow I have learned it's always the to the so I wish the startups G more Focus to building a business model which produces cash rather than you know taking following L money and l 1 billion 2 trillion that is not not it's not capital V build great companies in the world who build Zara who build Walmart right so it's capital is not so important timate it's your business model and I don't like companies who I tell all my investing companies I not interested in Val I I'm interested in my business and skill I'm making a business model a cash flow model and the variations have to follow variations cannot you know be more important than my business model and sustainability and I think people are being far far far too optimistic about how fast these companies will produce cash kind of money you know the all these entrepreneurs money is Like Oxygen if they need four you give them you give them six then dream will go 5,000 times right and just because some have succeeded me everybody's going to succeed so my attitude is they're contributing greatly to this country to this world I admire and love the way space and the efficiency they do things but they are being misguided by the focus on valuations and the and the focus of all these valuations are because of kind of money some of these investors have made in Chinese and other companies and this is ACC to Madness these are railroads this is like the T boom in my opinion the right to be wrong and I don't have to go to every party in town here I don't want India's top 25 performing companies right yeah P light maybe Asian pain maybe Nestle maybe Titan right which have given return Generations at least two generations see they're all valued between 30 and 35% cash FL I will explain this they are not they are not valued on the basis of the earning they valued on the basis of cash flow that P may but the ratio of cash flow is always three three and a half times now please hear me out for 2 minutes and you can't believe the return is given I mean 100 put 1,000 rupees put in Nestle 9 87 will be 10 lakhs today right so now the question is today you value zato at 1 lakh cres now when is zato going to get 3,000 CR of cash flow I want to know that and not invest a checks and history flight from the Boom in the railroads and those tulips all this valuations happened but never sustained never remember always remember the stock market is it's important how long it gets it's more important how long it lasts so this EMP the tech I'm tell you admire do this emphasis on the tech world of valuation cannot last you want a piece of stand paper I can tell you two years 2 years 3 years four years 5 years this you know and the biggest bloody badmash in this is a sofman character so I personally feel that you know fair enough maybe maybe the grapes are s because I didn't participate in B at that valuation I wish I had but now this kind of Madness and this emphasis on valuation see I invested in a kpo I put 30 cres of rupes in 2009 I have an offer of 4 and half th000 cres of my right but there is sustained cash flow no the question is I think the world is giving too much value to change and what can Capital allow you it can allow you domination which you already have also what it can allow you give further discounts how far how fast can you lost the pr pricing so that's my feeling ier the right to be wrong but I'm personally quite sure I won't be wrong I have I put up I put up a slide can you see can you also see the slide because this a question which raakesh has also articulated and I think you know when you answer his question you based on their Capital value he has priority liquidity preference if the company so get the money first so I don't measure I measure returns which are sustainable so remember how long it gets so I personally feel Ian will be great compies you know let me let me let me add to what Rakesh said of course he's right in a way let me add to that now these companies don't have cash flow I totally agree but I want to make a point that if you look at these companies they're growing in three years what an ordinary company will grow Z zata sale for 2020 21 is lower than 201920 what are they grow a bad see the first 10 people explain to me the best market for them was the co and the turnover was lower mathematics science is not an art here no no let let let me give my view you know they see they spending spending money today in marketing in getting customers at a fast phas compared to what any other company would do and when they and they got a fixed cost model fixed cost model means they spend a lot of money right now to get customers they got positive contribution hopefully and then once they come to a particular size uh you know the entire money goes to the bottom line because the fixed price Model using by digital technology enables that that is the Hope but let me agree with Rakesh on one thing there could be 100 IPOs in this big boom maybe 10 will do extremely well maybe 20 will give recent good decent money many will fail and the reason is very simple are part of this creative process where you create companies you destroy companies and money is made by smart people in creating and destroying the company for example for example the global this is not bu you at 20 million what is the risk reward ratio to justify valuation of 1 lak CR in zato which is the best valuation of companies you return over decades is 4,000 crores before tax his turnover is to R Clos today he has to earn 4,000 cres before tax to justify the validation of Hindustan lier Nest fight Asian pain some Maro so you know this is the kind of money make to sustain valuations I Grand my son are we wait we'll wait and see but I think my my view is my view is one but the risk ratios are not enough I agree Rakesh I agree with you I'm not justifying any valuation I'm just talking about the movement I'm telling you that owner of Carl which is a Titan sub personal friend of mine two people of his employee have left they made a three page business plan they already have commitment of $15 million yeah yeah is a left off left down feeling and maybe all my because grap I have seen this happening before You' seen it happen many times that's what I'm saying yeah you know I must tell you have you read the story of a man who broke the bank of England bank of England yeah Amer Britain and Germany as a part of to EUR they set a me the between the lmar and the town should be 1 to 1.20 yeah EMS right now j s said the America the Germans don't believe in the in God but they believe in the mondas bank yeah and to have a mechanism of currency valuation you got to align monetary and fiscal policy right he knew that will never happen but he did not sell on the mechanism he sold three four times again they marketed against him he squar up but when he realize now the time has come billion soing import you realize that zato in my opinion is abely value doesn't mean I go and sell today it would be better to sell at 40,000 market cap because there still 40,000 right rather than sell it today so time say timing importance you understand certain things you will know when you will if you watch the market closely by Price M I tell you whe there is weakness
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