저자: Kevin · 외국인
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영상은 주요 언론의 인플레이션·경기침체 공포 보도가 과장됐다고 주장한다. P&G, 킴벌리클라크, 펩시, 네슬레, 3M, 노르웨이지안크루즈, 코스트코, 포드 등 실적발표 발언을 근거로 가격 인상 효과가 전년 대비 기저효과로 사라지고 있다고 설명한다. 연준은 1년 기대인플레이션이 낮아지면 금리를 인하할 수 있으며, 그 시점을 대략 9월 전후로 본다. 주식은 '나이키 스우시' 회복 패턴으로 완만히 회복될 것이며 성장주·AI 관련주가 유망하다고 주장한다. 강의 홍보 및 가격 인상 안내가 포함돼 있다.
다듬은 글
the mainstream media will tell you that companies that make your favorite Brands and products like Pepsi Kit Kat tied Gillette and even toilet paper companies or Huggies and Pampers or raising prices so much that inflation is going to spiral out of control and we are going to go into a stagflationary depression the mainstream media is doing this all while selling you doom gloom and fear after all they say Pepsi raised prices Nespresso KitKat nine percent diapers 10 toilet paper 10 everyone's raising prices and obviously once the inflation Genie is out of the bottle there's no way you could put it back in and quite frankly the only way out is a deep dark recession or depression and it all starts with the banking crisis so the best way to protect yourself is obviously to just buy gold buy silver Buy tons and ammo because we're screwed but wait is that really what's going on or is this just what the mainstream media is spinning to us is it possible that the mainstream media is blatantly lying to us well yes but are they about inflation and financial news or could companies like Bloomberg potentially purposely be misleading the truth to sell more news after all if it bleeds it leads right well here's at these companies one two what the FED is actually doing and three how to position ourselves in this video I'm going to reveal to you what I just uncovered by the way congrats to all of those of you who appreciated what I last uncovered when it came to the fundamentals of Open Door which back on April 19th and 20th and for the last few weeks was actually selling for below Book value if you actually understood the balance sheet and when we talked in our course member live stream about this stock potentially going to two or three dollars well let's just say it started even though I hate Open Door the fundamentals had shown that Open Door became substantially oversold here's a clip from my course member live stream when I talked about it this could become a three dollar stock as quickly as the next earnings cycle so it's pretty wild companies up over 51 at the time of this recording over two dollars again bill.com another one we did a course member fundamental analysis on before earnings uh Ai and and and autonomy with recessionary pricing power and technicals that put it within 13 of the bottom in my opinion just pretty juicy up 34 so if you want my fundamental analysis for Life get in before May 10th there's a massive price increase coming of over 120 dollars especially after we add massive lectures on productivity with artificial intelligence in the new program email us for bundle coupons at Kevin meet kevin.com and keep in mind this is the elite Hustlers course that's now rebranded and all of the AI lectures will be coming out on June 1st and then we'll keep them updated as well that's the beauty you get lifetime access to all the updates the content the course member live streams you name it so let's get into the content first what's really happening well the best way to understand what's really happening is to actually look at earnings calls which is what CEOs and CFOs so chief executive officers and Chief Financial officers are actually telling us that their companies are doing and planning on doing and and usually these companies tend to be optimistic in their earnings calls so if they're being pessimistic you should believe them it's actually potentially worse in other words if a company says yeah we could raise prices 10 great that's optimistic and that would be dangerous for inflation but if companies like maybe we'll be able to raise prices three percent that's a sign that they probably won't and that disinflation is coming so what are companies telling us well let's start with Procter Gamble who makes daily Goods like Oral B Dental products tide Olay Pampers Gillette razors Old Spice deodorant Vicks Crest toothpaste gain Swiffer you name it well what are they saying quote they see price stabilization and pricing either neutral or negative and that pricing will actually end up becoming a negative headwind coming up wait a minute what does that mean in English what does it mean to have a negative headwind for pricing well when you listen to these Finance people it sounds complicated but there's a really easy way to picture this so let me show you here you go I drew this chart out and on the top you could see 2022 so let's say it's January it's the beginning of 2022 and we have a product that we sell for a hundred dollars and now in say April or in the second quarter so say these are all quarters right q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 say in the second quarter we raise prices ten dollars well now we have a 10 quarter over quarter increase and now in the next month we maintain pricing or next quarter we maintain pricing at 110 okay still ten percent increase compared to the year before right 110 the next quarter still 10 increase compared to the prior year 110 is the first quarter of 2023 well comparing back to the prior year where prices were 100 that still shows a 10 increase and what just happened folks January March or January to March was quarter one January February March that was quarter one and companies are talking about and bragging about all this extra 10 of pricing benefits they were able to take but they didn't actually take that pricing in q1 they took that pricing last year when we had a lot of inflationary issues and a war that just started in Ukraine and now if you raise pricing in let's say April or May like today another two dollars technically you've still raised pricing but what just happened you hit something known as a lap when you lap in finance this is really important when you lap the year-over-year numbers your pricing benefit goes away see for an entire year you're able to say uh yeah we've raised prices by ten percent yeah buddy we've raised prices 10 because people love our product no you raise prices once and then you gloated about it for a year now your next price increase is only two dollars which on top of the last one is actually only a 1.8 increase that is way lower than 10 percent yet the mainstream news is bragging about this 10 price increase for these greedy corporations right here where the yellow Mark is basically at the end of their party to be able to brag about it and they're doing that to sell you fear or gold in other words look at this chart this shows it to you a little bit more when you look at this closely so picture the the Orange Line pricing the Orange Line in 2022 will follow it here with the little red laser okay we raise prices in Q2 2022 oh 10 inflation brag brag brag brag brag for an entire year we lap to the next year 2023 still got that 10 increase over the last year right and then what happens oh now we're gonna lap so now we're going to only raise price to say 1.2 or call it 1.8 percent which is what we had above now your year-over-year inflation actually drops to about that 1.8 percent let's fix that over here make that one point eight percent there we go uh and now all of a sudden you don't have that much to brag about anymore for the rest of the year huh interesting and is that what companies are actually saying I mean so far I've only given you an example of Procter and Gamble right so this would be really useful to understand what other companies are talking about because now that we know the price lap phenomenon it makes sense that maybe the news could potentially blatantly lie to us and say that pricing is actually higher year over year well that would be true if they actually told us it was year over year but that's not what they're doing in fact take a look at this here's an article where Bloomberg just today was talking about how sticky inflation is and how much inflation there is and why you should be fearful and they literally wrote this I can't make this up case in point they're case in point folks this is the Crux of Bloomberg's article in terms of why you should be fearful and if you like what I'm about to tell you I encourage you to like the video because nobody else is talking about this you ready for this case in point Kimberly Clark okay they make Huggies and Kleenex and toilet paper right Dallas maker of these things raised this is their quote quote raised prices by 10 across all its categories last quarter wrong they did not raise pricing by 10 last quarter they raised pricing last year and they are realizing that now and they're cheering about that now because year over year yes it looks like pricing year over year is higher but they didn't tell you that in that article because that would defeat the purpose of that article that article is supposed to make you fearful the pricing is still Rising but no the party is about to end well let's look at the earnings call for Kimberly Clark and let's see what the CEO of Kimberly Clark literally just said in their earnings call quote we don't expect that pricing strength to remain and those pricing gains to remain in fact considering pricing inclusive of you know volume and pricing growth they think they're only going to grow revenues by three percent at the midpoint going forward in fact they think that pricing will become a quote headwind as they lap higher pricing they expect quote pricing to subside which means fall it won't be a benefit anymore and instead of raising prices more guess what Kimberly Clark wants to do when it comes to Huggies diapers and toilet paper they want to invest in quote Innovation and advertising because they have a new strategy and that strategy is called the high road strategy the high road strategy is one rather than just cutting prices we're going to stand behind our brand and tell people we'll shove the value of our product down people's throats and they'll love our toilet paper and diapers because we won't drop prices we'll just advertise and innovate more so you literally have the CEO of Kimberly Clark going a bath tissue is highly Innovative and high quality really you have a diaper and paper company telling you they're going to focus on innovation for their toilet paper and then they're going to advertise more guess what's going to happen when their High Road strategy fails folks when Kimberly Clark fails to innovate toilet paper and diapers prices are going to drop like a rock because they won't have any pricing power these Consumer Staples like those on screen are selling you fake PP it is faux PP at its best fake PP that's the best case scenario worst case scenario it's a lie of a peepee they're lying to you about the size of their PV think about this these staples are massively overvalued and I personally expect when these companies realize they're going to have to massively cut prices then you're going to see the gains of companies like Kimberly Clark and Pepsi evaporate and these staples the people who are investing in them for a flight to safety will actually end up rotating to growth companies unfortunately in the meantime people are fearful because they read the news headlines reading headlines is extremely dangerous you should know that if you're on YouTube now what does Pepsi tell us because maybe Pepsi is going to tell us something different and what is Ford saying because maybe these companies are going to tell us something different what about Norwegian Cruise Lines or Costco I'll tell you exactly what all of those companies are saying right now but I want to shout out garyvee he's the hustle man right what did Hustle Man just say your duty is he says your duty is to make sure that artificial intelligence does not replace you if you are not using AI tools every day of your life you're making a huge mistake you've got to start training whether you need it or not is irrelevant you're gonna need it this train has left the station and there's nothing stopping it and yesterday a course member thanked me for helping prevent him from losing his job in that course and this is why I remind you to check out the bundle coupon codes by either going to meet kevin.com go to the link down below or email us at kevin.com we have already set the for 11 59 pm on Wednesday the price will go up under 20 dollars which is a pretty sizable increase if you jump in now you'll guarantee the lowest price forever use that link down below but keep in mind this is a very very high quality course with custom live streams all focused on making you more money whether you are an individual employee or you're a business owner doesn't matter employee business owner doesn't matter we want to make you more productive make sure you can make more money and you get through this difficult economic time in the safest way possible link down below so what is Pepsi telling us well Pepsi is telling us quote we're seeing a deceleration of inflation and quote the majority of pricing is already done in fact quote we have mostly taken the pricing this year that we needed to to cover our costs now they don't quantify exactly how much pricing they're taking this year because it's probably embarrassingly low say it's 1.8 percent you're still technically raising prices but it's nothing to phone home about it's no 10 increase anymore so Pepsi isn't bragging about big numbers because they don't have big numbers anymore they're cheering about last year's pricing in the news but that's all going to fade what makes a consumer staple like uh 3M talk about pricing well price declines see 3M manufactures products like tapes filters bandages Post-it notes along with a ton of other things like 60 000 products and what do they see quote inflation in the low single digits in fact that's the average guide for the year in English barely no inflation what about Nestle you know they were just in the news for raising prices on Nespresso and kitkats by nine percent nine percent inflation oh my God these Nespresso pods getting so much more expensive well what are they actually saying in their earnings calls here you go quote we're not taking broad-based price increases much of the pricing that will apply in 2023 is pricing that has already been effectuated from the second half of last year the consumer is after all being more sensitive they say interesting what about Norwegian Cruise Lines I mean come on man Kevin you can't just pull out uh Pepsi and Procter Gamble and Kimberly Clark and Nestle and say these companies aren't seeing inflation what about travel all right Norwegian Cruise Lines they say it makes sense to hold pricing so they can focus on occupancy in other words if they keep raising prices they're not going to have a full boat and everybody knows that if you're gonna be sailing a ship you may as well be sailing at 100 occupancy even if you have to give away the rooms because if you don't fill the ship you got less people buying drinks and stuff on the ship unless people buying art or whatever from their stores what about Costco Costco that's a big deal right I mean consumer stable everybody's been fleeing to Costco stock well Costco says not only are prices for TVs falling duh but what about for all of their inventory what do they expect for potentially lifo credits I'll explain that in a moment well they say they expect lifo credits to be flat okay little complicated I'm gonna make it very very simple lifo stands for last in first out I learned all about that when I was working at Jamba Juice some things are fifo some things are lifo first in first out last in first out depends what system you use well if you use the lifo system that means you have a bunch of stuff on the shelf and so you add new stuff to the front of the shelf and then you sell the new stuff at the front of the Shelf you don't do that with like perishables obviously but on some things you do and then you kind of leave some stuff back in the back of the shelves well the stuff at the back the shelves you have to take an inventory adjustment on which basically means you can adjust the value of your existing assets based on how much you're raising or reducing prices on your first out products well now they're expecting that to be flat in other words no more of increasing our balance sheet because we're not raising prices anymore in other words in plain English Costco is like dude pricing flat man like no we're not raising prices in fact we want to quite frankly see prices reduce so we can sell more stuff yeah that's Costco for you okay well what about Ford uh Ford says they're gonna keep their prices high and they're telling their investors they're not going to pull a Tesla because they're not going to cut prices because cutting prices you know just to get volumes is is a bad idea and Elon Musk is dumb in so many words that's what they're saying meanwhile they're putting a mile of extra cabling into their cars because they don't know how to manufacture and their margins at best case last year for electric vehicles was negative 40 last quarter it was negative 100 and uh their best case scenario is maybe they'll break even on electric vehicles by 2025 best case scenario so but wait a minute Kevin but they say they're going to keep prices stable and they're not going to cut prices Ford is different from Tesla Ford like Legacy Autos use the dealership model the dealership model guess what allows you to keep MSRP High while funneling money to the dealers so they can negotiate a lower price with you so in other words let's say Ford has a beach to sell you in Arizona well they might say the cost of that is sixty thousand dollars and as everybody else is cutting prices Ford might say our beach is so desirable we don't have to reduce prices meanwhile they're going up to people going hey man um Ford up there uh you know they say this cost 60 Grand but what if I could get it to you for you know 50 Grand I'll get you 10 grand off and the person giving you the 10 grand off is the dealer okay well where does the dealer get that money from from Ford's marketing budget yeah Ford can literally as incentives distribute money to all of the dealers and basically say we'll keep the MSRP high but we'll hand money out to the dealers then the dealers give that to you as a discount and where does that show up on the Ford's income statement advertising so now one of the Ford Executives do when they go on their next earnings call yeah we spent more money on Advertising our ads and our brand value are so strong that we were able to maintain prices while increasing our ad spent to pump up volume we didn't have to reduce prices at all it's a freaking scam it's a scam they're lying that's what it is it's fake PP faux PP that's a lie it's also you could tell shareholders pricing is stable while just advertising more and handing it out of the back end and the mainstream media is eating it up so what is the Fed actually doing well let's be blunt Here If the Fed told you they were going to cut rates in September I guarantee you your mom and my dad all together would go out on margin and YOLO stocks that would cause the market to Skyrocket again people would feel rich again and euphoric again they'd spend money in inflation with Skyrocket instead the FED is playing 40 chess or if you're actually paying attention to the chess board they're just playing regular chess they gave us the exact formula of what they are doing yeah they gave you a formula did you catch it no did I catch it until now no I went back and rewatched it I'm like oh my God here it is the formulas link down below no I'm just kidding I I had to I had to I'm sorry I'm sorry play the flat we have the luxury we've raised 500 basis points I think that policy is tight I think real rates are probably that you can calculate them many different ways but one way is to look at the nominal rate and then subtract a reasonable estimate of of let's say one year inflation which might be three percent so you've got two percent real rates that's meaningfully above what most people would many people anyway would would assess as uh you know the neutral rate so policy is tight and you see that in interest intersensitive um activities and you also begin to see it more and more in in other activities and if you if you put the um you put the credit tightening on top of that and the QT that's that's ongoing I think I think you feel like you know we're we may not be far off or possibly even at that level so what does this mean folks it's obvious as long as one year inflation expectations out continue to fall the FED will probably be willing to cut rates so they won't forecast that until they're ready to do so because then they would unwind what they're hoping for now no guarantees if inflation expectations don't come down they won't cut it's simple if inflation expectations go up they won't cut if they stay stable they probably won't cut we need expectations to come down and inflation prove to come down but let's do a little uh chart here because right now average one-year inflation expectations are about three percent there's some measures that are a little higher like e have to watch that it's been a little volatile last month it popped up into the four plus range like four point six percent range that's not good that's bad but the fed's preferred measure of inflation expectations came out today and it came in at 2.9 so let's call it three percent rates are at five percent that means real yields are about two percent okay that's what Jerome Powell just talked about now if we show that graphically what does that mean for the future of rates well let's take a look at it here on the left side you see Fed rate five percent inflation expectations one year out or three percent real yield two percent okay well what if I now told you the inflation expectations end up falling to two percent you know towards like September of this year and the FED still wants to keep real yields at two percent okay well if inflation expectations are two percent and real yields are two percent then guess what interest rate you need four percent if inflation expectations stay at three percent you stay at five percent see where we're going with this if inflation expectations fall to two percent and the FED wants real yields to be two percent they can cut interest rates one percent now what if the FED says Hey inflation's fell to two percent but not only did inflation expectations fall to two percent we're willing to let real yields be one percent oh well simple math would tell you that the interest rate for the Federal Reserve that you need now is only three percent in other words two percentage points of cuts 200 BP of cuts there's the map for you literally the formula I literally just gave you the formula for when the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates and all you have to do is pay attention to expectations for inflation that's it that's all you have to do it's simple expectations for inflation are relatively stable right now and we look at the five-year Break Even chart what we see on the five-year Break Even is actually a slow and steady kind of decline dare I say it's a Nike Swoosh in Reverse now the five-year break-even inflation rate is the bonds Market expectation of inflation it's very important and I think when we look at it graphically you can see this is something that does require patience and this is why the FED isn't talking about rate Cuts yet because again a would ruin what they're trying to accomplish because then people would just front run it and B we need to see this fall even more look at the five-year break-even inflation rate on screen now see on the right side how it's been declining we want to see that Trend continue and we add a little bit of an oopsy-doopsy there briefly right after the January numbers came out but we really want to see this trend continue but beyond continuing look at the last time the FED really talked about pausing it was right about there right around 1.6 on the five year break even so watch this chart because we're basically at lows of last year and if this drops a little bit more a couple more Banks fail we'll be right at that territory by September where the fed's willing to suddenly U-turn so what's the best investing strategy going forward not Financial advice ETF I've got amazing courses on building your wealth email us at kevin.com for the bundle price increase of 120 bucks is already set for Wednesday yeah we delayed that a little bit because I couldn't get back to all the emails I think Monday morning McKay got in he's like what why are there like 200 emails it's been a lot of interest in getting in before Wednesday but anyway what's the strategy in my opinion Staples bad it's tough to short right now though because I think if you short you're gonna get screwed you have to be careful because everything real Rising tide lifts All Ships what's the strategy slow Nike Swoosh people think I'm crazy for saying this but I've been saying it for six months one of my staff asked this morning great question why six months ago did you come up with the Nike Swoosh recovery and my answer was very simple psychology it's why I sell a course stocks on the psychology of money I believe that people are not going to be convinced that inflation is transitory like an on and off switch they're going to slowly realize all right inflation's coming down and as they slowly realize that they will slowly reallocate back to stocks which is super unpopular right now stocks are pretty bearishly positioned there's a lot of excess Capital that should flow into stocks and it will I expect that I could be wrong I don't have a crystal ball I didn't even buy one on Amazon to say I have a crystal ball I don't think it's going to be stables and defensives it's gonna be growth and stocks that benefit from artificial intelligence which is again why you should focus on artificial intelligence because that is going to set up the next decade for some of the most insane productivity gains ever and if you're not part of it you're going to get left behind I guarantee you you will get left behind you don't want to get left behind I will hand it all to you on a silver platter everything we're doing to make sure all of my businesses are as efficient as possible whether it's in finance in real estate uh you know housing Property Management content creation accounting sales marketing doesn't matter what business you're in doesn't matter if you're an employee or an employer doesn't matter ai's going to be very critical so the Nike Swoosh is all about psychology and I think we're going to continue to see the Nike switch happen it will be volatile because there's always going to be BS going on like uh you know what's going on with um the debt ceiling and all this nonsense uh and that is a real risk but let's just be real when we actually look at what's been going on when it comes to the Nike Swoosh so far all year long it's been correct and we're already on the fifth month of the year I think it's going to take a while to hit those new all-time highs but when the fed and this is what blows my mind people are like a bit cabin when the FED starts cutting when the FED starts cutting rates this Nike Swoosh well let's just say we've talked about it many times before check out my videos on meet Kevin fed pivot and learn all about it on YouTube if you found this video helpful share this video subscribe like comment thank you so much and we'll see you next time
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