저자: JosephGrundfest · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 아직 규제가 정비되지 않은 '와일드 웨스트' 단계이며, 선물 상장 등 시장 확대 속도가 규제 인프라를 앞서고 있다. 규제 체계 쟁점: 비트코인 자체는 P2P 거래라 대부분의 규제기관이 직접 통제하기 어렵다. 선물은 CFTC 규제 대상이지만, 중개기관의 규제 방식과 비트코인의 증권/상품 분류는 아직 열려 있다. 국가별로 접근이 다를 수 있다. 선물 상장 우려: 거래소 간 선물 주도권 경쟁이 과열을 부르고, 극심한 변동성 속에서 가격 제한 도달 속도, 청산거래소의 금융 안정성 문제가 제기된다. 선물시장은 제로섬 구조라 누가 숏/롱을 잡을지도 불투명하다. 기관 노출: 비트코인에 관여하지 않으려던 대형 금융기관도 선물 상장으로 실질 노출이 생길 수 있다. 비트코인은 거래소 기준 1.7만 달러 아래로 급락한 상태다. ICO 문제: 대다수 ICO는 증권의 전통적 정의에 해당하며 SEC 등록 의무가 있다. 상당수는 명백한 사기이며, SEC가 이를 제재하는 데 왜 시간이 걸리는지 의문이다. 출연자 전망: 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없고, 규제 공백과 시장 과열에 대한 경고가 중심이다.
다듬은 글
let's stick with Bitcoin here though joining us now is joke run fast he's a professor at Stanford Law School and a former SCC commissioner professor good to have you here with us what role just from a big-picture perspective what role does the SEC and other regulators have in this market when Bitcoin we can't even necessarily define it as a security these industrial cone offerings not all of them purport to be ownership stakes and companies so where does a regulator start it's a great question and the answer is really quite complicated there are many financial instruments that are evolved over here Bob was just talking about the situation involving the futures on Bitcoin clearly the futures on Bitcoin are going to be regulated by the CFTC Bitcoin itself is a different story you've got Bitcoin which in effect is trading on a peer-to-peer exchange that at a certain level is beyond the regulatory reach of just about any regulatory agency in the world on the other hand you have these intermediaries that sit between investors in Bitcoin and the actual Bitcoin market itself and that's an area that's still open to discussion in terms of whether Bitcoin will at one point be considered a security will it just be considered a commodity who is going to regulate it and the other possibility is that different countries will take different approaches to the regulation of these intermediaries as well professor grandfather I wonder if the regulation piece of this is making sort of people out there think that it may be actually safer to buy Bitcoin or trade in it or do whatever they want with it because the regulator's are coming in when as Bob Pisani was just telling us it's still very very unclear as to what's even gonna happen next week when you can suddenly trade futures yeah you know from my perspective we're still in the Wild West phase over here and the technology is several steps ahead of where the regulatory infrastructure is I'm not entirely persuaded that all of the regulator's really understand everything that's happening in this market we're about to embark on a very remarkable experiment of beginning next week with the trading of the futures there are many many questions about how this trading is going to look who's gonna step into this market who's gonna want to short it who's gonna want to go long futures markets are naturally zero-sum processes where are the natural logs were the natural sorts with this level of volatility in the market how quickly are the limits going to be hit and as mr.
Sahni pointed out there are questions with regard to financial stability of many of these clearing exchanges and you've got many large financial institutions that don't want to have anything to do with Bitcoin but now as a practical matter they're gonna have Bitcoin exposure because of the introduction of these writers markets on Bitcoin even as we're talking professor Bitcoin on coin base is now below 17 K which is obviously a dramatic drop even from a few moments ago do you think the exchanges that are introducing futures are doing it too soon what's the rush well everybody involved in these markets is involved for one reason and it's not complicated it's to make money and we know as a practical matter the way futures markets operate there tends to be one dominant market for each underlying and here we've got competition among the various futures markets to try to own the futures markets in Bitcoin and you can therefore imagine various forms of races trying to become the dominant market and different markets are willing to take different levels of risk in order to try to become the dominant market for Bitcoin futures now when it comes to these initial coin offerings obviously a lot of opportunists out there either creating their own kind of bespoke coins or just essentially trying to rebrand themselves as a blockchain or bit Bitcoin play is that an area that the SEC or other regulators should become more active in right now or is it just hey it's buyer beware this is just like beanie babies well number one it's not just like beanie babies number two let's remember what happened with beanie babies a lot of people lost money over there number three this is a more straightforward situation a very very large percentage of these initial point off all squarely within the traditional definition of what a security is these point offerings are not registered with the SEC as a legal matter they're required to be registered with the SEC and the interesting question from my perspective is what's taking the Securities Exchange Commission so long in terms of initiating actions to shut down many of these icos many of which are pretty blatant fraud
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