저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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1960년대식 인플레이션 우려가 제기되는 가운데, 연준의 긴축 가능성과 디레버리징(부채축소) 공포가 시장을 압박한다고 주장. 숏 포지션 수익 확대와 함께 암호화폐 대규모 청산, 거래소 출금 장애가 발생했으며, 이더리움·비트코인·도지의 지지선 하락 시나리오를 제시. 마진 대신 옵션 보유를 권하는 의견도 포함.
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the market's in crisis mode right now here's what's happening people are fearful that 1960s style inflation is back in case you're not familiar with that here's a very quick primer when the korean war ended in the early 1950s and korean war-related spending came to a halt we saw war-related inflation which wars lead to shortages and spikes in prices remember guns and butter and this is the original definition of guns and butter not the definition of guns and butter that we use when we talk in stocks and psychology of money because we've redefined it to something that relates to us on a daily basis obviously those of you with the programs know more importantly though back in the early 1950s you did have inflation because we were it was wartime wartime shortages leads to temporary inflation great that temporary inflation proved to be temporary and inflation levels fell to low levels that we've actually seen over the last decade now we have seen inflation bouncing around 1.3 1.4 1.5 percent guess what inflation was bouncing around between 1951 and about 1965.
1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 percent you had very very very low inflation during the post uh war sort of boom in in the 50s to the mid 60s now unfortunately starting in the mid 60s we started having a lot of social spending which sounds very very similar to the covid relief packages followed by this 4 trillion dollar biden infrastructure plan now initially economists have said well wait a minute in the 1960s like in 1965 we had wage price controls we had uh supply you know just regular price control so we had price controls on general prices and uh price or limits on on wages and so it was sort of as away in the 60s in the mid 60s of actually caging inflation like literally think about think about jpal going um we're literally just going to make it so prices can't go up which makes shortages even worse and eventually the free market takes over and breaks out of the cage well that's what happened starting in 1967 to 1968.
these artificial price limits which right now we don't have we don't have price limits we have supply chain constraints which are pushing prices up but prices are free to go up they're going up look at lumber look at wheat look at coffee uh you know look at me it's all going up and they fluctuate obviously in the short term but commodities are through the roof prices are through the roof wages are are going up uh bank of america just yesterday talked about how now their minimum pay is going to be 25 an hour because they can't attract workers anymore mcdonald's is paying people 50 just to show up for an interview some mcdonald's are paying people 18 an hour apparently it's nuts and so economists initially said look the 2020 recovery is different from 1965 because this time was different never heard that one before uh because the covet spending was one time in 1965 we had this recurring spencer at the same time in the late 19 mid 1960s late 1960s you had a federal reserve that was really nonchalant about everything they're like yeah we don't need to do anything like literally that that was their attitude now you have a very different fed you have a fed that's we're prepared to act if we need to we got the tools aka interest rates are going to go up we'll act if we need to you got the market expecting that the fed is going to act and raise rates sooner than expected you do still have federal reserve chairman jerome powell kind of doing the look i i've been telling you all i want 2 inflation now we're starting to see inflation and you're freaking out this is what i want so you have a little bit of an uh of some differences here so it's you know uh what do they say it's it's not exactly the same but history tends to rhyme uh doesn't necessarily repeat itself but it can rhyme anyway so late 1960s 67 68 you start getting this inflation because wage and price controls limits on prices going up start getting removed uh and so this leads inflation to start going up four five six seven percent going into the 70s then at the same time as you start seeing these inflationary pressures we we decide let's just leave the gold standard and literally make our dollar backed by nothing but the belief which is what it is now our money is just backed by the belief that it has value so anyway that obviously led to the hyperinflation that we saw in the 70s which was you know 10 to 15 percent inflation interest rates you know 10 15 ranges uh mortgages double digits which uh led to uh what year was it volker saturday night saturday night volcker saturday night volcker saturday night was 1979.
volcker saturday night was was his anti-inflation movement really really big day in history where basically you had this decade of now inflation from like 70 or 67 where it started to 79 and volcker's like that's it we're going to go through the bloody disastrous pull down that we need to do which turns into the ray dalio style great d leveraging where you get a painful crash in markets people get rid of debt one of the reasons i've been talking about deleveraging for the last six months on this channel and nobody wanted to hear it uh this is also why i'm like i'm gonna get rid of my margin and i'm gonna buy long options not because those options can't go down 99 but because at least they'll still have value left over when the market recovers whereas margin you get liquidated on a margin call you don't you you got nothing left you know it's just gone that's the danger of margin versus options uh a lot of margin obviously but anyway so so now volcker raises interest rates substantially you get a sell-off you get a d leveraging which is stuff that we have been warned about uh ray dalio's been talking about this great deleveraging coming that maybe the night the 2020s are going to be more like a a decade of de-leveraging where people like that's it i don't want that anymore i want to pay down debt maybe you get what i've been calling a frugal decade happening where people you know we get this initial surge in spending people going back to disney people traveling again or whatever and then you get folks uh deciding you know what um i just i'm good spending i'm just gonna focus on my financial house i don't want to spend as much as i'm used to spending and then really what what happens is this fear of that sort of 1960s 1970s style progress is leading to a lot of shorts in the market we've seen short shorting in the market go parabolic in the last two three months and it's because it's been very very profitable anybody shorting tech and certain consumer discretionaries especially online has been very very profitable over the last three months the shorts are winning uh and the shorts really started by hedging their long positions okay you're long on tesla you hedge with shorts you make lots of money on the shorts maybe you hedge a little more and then that spreads like wildfire through the hedging and shorting and weenie baby community uh and they're they're winning right now fairness the winnie b the weenie baby shorters are we winning right now so so you get the lever or the shorts winning then we've we've been talking about this we look at the crypto market what has not sold off yet because once when short sellers make money when they make a lot of money shorting the market in one area of the market what do they want to do folks they want to make more money so they start looking around going well what else can we short oh ethereum doubles in 30 days oh that sounds a little juicy bitcoin up uh you know what forty fifty thousand dollars in the last six months hmm you know seriously that simple institutions can short crypto we don't have easy access to shorting crypto so the institutions who make up the majority of crypto traders now they've replaced us retail traders can set up all their shorts and watch all of us get squeezed out of the market especially if you've taken on leverage which now we're seeing mass liquidations four billion dollars of liquidations within the last hour eight billion dollars worth of liquidations in the last 12 hours or reports we're seeing coinbase is shut down well oops at least partially halting ethereum withdrawals you got binance saying leverage tokens redemptions for leverage tokens are not available so you got crazy liquidations happening you got coinbase block fi and binance all down to some degree which is very reminiscent of the concerns that we've been talking about on this channel that what happens if we have mass oh here we go kraken says ethereum uh and uh erc20 token deposits and withdrawals are currently delayed can't it you can't take your money out you just can't take your money out this was the big fear we've been talking about on this channel and and this i'm worried this is i want it to end okay like you don't get me wrong i do not want to see this this crypto nightmare continue because all it does is is hurt the retail folks who are just getting started with investing it's not like my interest in buying the dip is not greater than than my love for people not getting screwed like i don't want to see people getting screwed uh and and margin is screwing people here this is why we're seeing these liquidations but the problem is it's not just people's margins it's how much leverage is in the crypto system i don't know i mean so far we're stable okay like let's look at the sticks so far we have fallen to the levels that we thought things might fall to we briefly fell lower but we're in that low 2000s range in ethereum these were where we've had longer term supports bitcoin has had longer support between 32 and 34.
it's actually bouncing around 35 so it's doing a little better than expected uh at least worth bouncing right now and it's bouncing around that 35 000 right now doge does have a support line there's i didn't just draw that line today that line has been there for a very long period of time uh dosh has had this you know support around and it's rubber bands around here uh oh we got another update here from coinbase intermittent downtime on coinbase platform we're currently investigating the issue trying to implement fixes uh but anyway uh crypto you know the next levels of support i i don't even know that i want to look at them we'll do it but folks this is tough i mean look at this for doge i mean low 20s is the low to mid 20s is the next level of support for doge if if we get a continued sell-off and then after that i don't even want to talk about that because literally if we break through the low to mid 20s folks there's nothing between the low to mid 20s and and five cents nothing and even five cents didn't last that long ethereum uh red candle sticking obviously this is on the day chart here so this is what we were talking about prior longer term supports right here but if we fall past this if we break we start breaking 21 consistently i don't know what do we got can i get let me get if i could get a week that'd be nice i don't think i can though uh yeah okay yeah 1900 ma maybe maybe a temporary shelf around that 1400 level maybe and i don't want to go past that bitcoin and i don't think we need to i mean this this was good uh you know otherwise we did have a a little bit of a shelf here at 18 19.
i i don't i don't see that happening the only way this happens in my opinion okay the only way we go to 18 000 bitcoin the only and just don't trade off this advice okay like you lose money it's your problem it's not my fault but just my uneducated opinion here is but the only way we go to ethereum 1300 bitcoin 18 19 000 is if this if we get this continued uh platform unavailable crap at all the different crypto platforms all of a sudden you get more and more leveraged fears of oh my gosh maybe the system is over leveraged more and more people dumping uh leading to more and more liquidations that is the over leverage in the system is the big concern at the same time anything crypto related is selling off dramatically dramatic sell downs and anything crypto related uh marathon big digital riot voyager hud 8 uh all these guys down 10 12 amc momentum stocks down 10 here on amc coinbase down 9.4 percent uh very good food company down 7.5 wow quantum scape down five uh 5.4 tesla's down 420 percent you know like 4.2 percent a square is down at 195.
a lot of pain not a lot of green only thing really doing well today is end phase solar edge and target otherwise you're either flat or you're losing today it's pretty rough and it's all coming off these uh leveraged fears great deleveraging fears and inflation fears so that's uh that's a summary as to what's happening in the market right now a lot relating to those 60s to 70s fears especially with fed president bullard coming out this morning literally this morning he goes don't worry we will act if necessary in response to the madness that's happening you know i think jerome powell is sitting there with a cigar right now going folks i've been telling you for a long time two percent inflation was coming now you're freaking out we might be seeing two percent inflation you know like that's that's like i feel like jerome's like you know got somebody fiddling right now you know like i told you this was coming but uh uh but uh to him it's all according to plan uh that this is just gonna be a temporary a lot of pain until we actually adjust to getting two percent inflation i don't know folks we'll keep tabs on what's going on but this is the summary of what's happening in the market if uh you want to join me in the private live streams uh i uh we will be going live in the private live streams i might honestly if this madness continues we might even do a couple private livestreams today i don't know we'll see but uh if you want my perspectives uh in private you want to ask questions do link down below you can check out the other courses as well you get the live stream access as well so if you prefer real estate investing whatever use that coupon code expiring soon link down below probably friday thank you so very much for being here folks we will see you in the next one
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