저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인 급락 속에서도 장기 보유(HODL)를 권하며, 비트코인은 주식보다 상승 여력이 크다고 주장. 주장 1: 비트코인 상승 수익은 소수의 최고 수익일에 집중됨. 최고 10일을 제외하면 연간 수익이 크게 떨어지며, 작년에도 10일을 빼면 상승률이 100%에 그쳤다고 설명(1600% 상승의 대부분이 소수 날짜에 집중). 주장 2: 시장 타이밍을 피하고 최고 수익일을 놓치지 않으려면 계속 보유해야 한다는 논리. S&P500은 1954년 이후 이 패턴이 일관적이었고, 비트코인도 매년 같은 패턴이 나타났다고 주장. 리스크 인정: 비트코인의 존속 가능성에 대한 실존적 질문이 남아 있으며, 보유 중 최악의 10일을 맞으면 손실이 커질 수 있음. 시장 심리: 암호화폐 시장 분위기는 현재 매우 나쁘고, 장기 보유자들은 큰 수익을 낸 뒤 가격 하락을 우려하고 있음. 고통지수는 약 28 수준으로 낮아 추가 하락 가능성을 시사. 다만 2014년 같은 대형 유동성 충격은 없어 여전히 강세장으로 판단. 기관 전망: 선물, 잠재적 ETF 등을 통해 기관 자금 유입 통로가 구축되고 있으며, 규제 측면에서 가장 명확한 자산이라 기관 진입 시 비트코인이 첫 번째 수혜처가 될 것으로 봄. 현재는 기관들이 비트코인을 연구하는 좋은 시기라고 평가. 비교 발언: 1990년대 무선 애널리스트 시절 셀룰러가 과소평가됐던 것에 비유하며 기관 관심 확대를 강조. 신규 자금을 비트코인과 S&P500 중 고르라는 질문에 비트코인이 훨씬 상승 여력이 크다고 답했으나, 주식에도 강세 견해 유지.
다듬은 글
despite the wreckage one of Wall Street's biggest crypto bowls has a message for investors keep calm and Hodel on the Tom Lea fun star joins us now Tom great to have you with us yeah thanks Ronny you know when we put out there on Twitter that you're gonna come on we got a little bit of flack out there because you just come on and say buy Bitcoin keep lowly keep holding keep holding or Hotaling whatever you want to call it but your premise of buying it and holding it is backed up you say by numbers by data yes so it's a simple exercise you know people have done it for equities for a long time but if you take out the ten best days for Bitcoin every year based on percentage change bitcoins fallen 25 percent a year so in other words the gains in Bitcoin occur in a very short number of days and even last year for instance if you exclude the ten best days Bitcoin was only up to hundred percent so in other words that whole sixteen hundred percent move was actually concentrated in a handful of days how confident are you that historical data holds for an asset like Bitcoin when the liquidity has changed so dramatically over the course of this many years and I mean it's a fair question you know this idea of avoiding market timing really that's why you want to make sure you capture the ten best days is really worked in it in a lot of liquid markets for years right for S&P it's really been since nineteen fifty four and a Bitcoin there's consistency so it's not as if when you look at the history of Bitcoin that there's a few years where this is the case it's really occurred in every single year but Tom if I was holding an S&P a spider or something you know I want to not miss I want to just be there for the ride I think one of the concerns here is that Bitcoin you know if even if you're in those days you have to believe you're going to have those days again obviously there's still a very existential question about bitcoins viability maybe maybe not crypto is an asset class but is Bitcoin the player I mean we don't know that and and that's for guys that are in this asset this pain you know is is is something that says by staying in it I could make I could be in the ten worst days of 2018 and be much worse off yeah well I mean the mood in crypto is terrible right now so I mean I think longtime holder they're worried because they have big gains and they're worried about falling prices but bitcoin is a great store value it works really well it's kind of boring because it's not like the latest and most exciting project but it also is one of the most liquid ways to get exposure to crypto I mean there's a lot of ramps being built from you know futures and I think potential ETFs and it's probably the clearest from a regulatory perspective so I think when institutions start to really get involved in and they aren't in a big way bitcoins gonna be one of the first places they start the price of Bitcoin sugg started sideways ish is your misery index UNMISS arising in other words as we go sideways are people feeling a little bit better about things which implies you could see another move lower if that's the case yeah so the the misery index is still low it's around 28 which is a level of misery you guys have better graphics again on that so I don't think anyone who owns crypto should feel confident but you know we you know we still think bitcoins in a bull market so I don't think we have the conditions that took place in 2014 which is a huge liquidity shock right and you had the largest exchange announced a massive hack I mean that that's not the type of seismic events taking place in crypto today is is crypto is this call and your calls around Bitcoin these is are they the hardest to defend out there I mean you've done a lot of good work on stocks you've been a strategist on the street well-known well-regarded and here you are talking about Bitcoin in what has been a terrible market for Bitcoin it really like the yeah when we talk about in institutions coming in you know this harming that move or what you see coming it's uh so it's kind of a mixed blessing one it reminds me a lot of my work when I was a wireless analyst in the 90s you know where people thought it was all about long distance and plain old telephone service and people that cellular was this crappy little capital intensive business which now is bigger than everything but you know we're doing a lot of calls and meetings with traditional managers they're taking this chance for what bitcoins consolidating and they're seeing the case for this real store value there's real plumbing being built to get educated so I think this is actually a great timing because it doesn't force investors to jump in and then learn later it's giving a chance to really study this so I as bad as it feels now I think it's actually the kind of environment you want glass quick question right here right now fresh money into Bitcoin or the S&P 500 if it's between now and your end yes it's easily Bitcoin but we are bullish on equities it's just I think Bitcoin has a lot more upside okay good to see you thank you thanks guys
Comments 0