저자: Kevin · 외국인
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블루 아울 캐피털이 사모신용 펀드 환매를 동결하며 2007년 BNP 파리바 사태와 유사한 유동성 충격 신호가 나타난다고 주장. 상장 펀드는 약 30% 할인 거래 중이며, 내부자 매도와 UBS·IMF 경고(AI발 사모신용 디폴트 위험, 대형은행의 사모신용 노출)를 근거로 제시. 다만 즉각적인 폭락은 아니라고 선을 그음. 영상은 강좌·앱 홍보 목적이 섞여 있음.
다듬은 글
and Silus, this was also the fund that we already had some controversy around across all of uh different forms of private credit. 2007 is calling and we might be experiencing a liquidity shock or a margin call on all assets. At least those are the words of Kevin Wsh. Yeah, the same Kevin Walsh who in April of 2008 said exactly those words, quoting Shakespeare, "What's past is prologue, what's to come in yours and my discharge." I have no freaking idea what the hell that means, but I do know that Kevin Walsh wrote this piece talking about the sleepy complacency of a bygone era seemed rudely interrupted by a liquidity shock last August.
a glob global margin call on virtually all leveraged positions began. And what do you know it? But something very ironically similar seems to be happening right now. In case you haven't heard, Blue Owl Capital just froze redemptions on all of their private credit funds. And it is eerily similar to Kevin Walsh's reference of August 9th, 2007 when BNP Parabus froze three funds due to a lack of liquidity.
This, by the way, came just 4 months after New Century filed for bankruptcy. Back then considered it to be a small issue, but now considered to be one of the first dominoes. And what's eerily similar is that about four months ago we had the collapse of Bur Brands and other smaller entities like Renovo Home Loans, private equity rollup or sa homes you name.
Now maybe they all deserve to go bankrupt but what's fascinating fascinating about today's blue owl capital freeze of redemptions is that things are starting to sound eerily similar. Now, in this video, I'm not going to go through doom and gloom here. That's that's not the purpose of this. The real purpose of this video is to remind you about the coupon code expiring for the courses on building your wealth tomorrow.
And you can see the $300,000 of stuff we just bought. Okay? No, the real purpose of this video is uh well, that let's just be real. That's my job. But also to educate you on what's actually similar and different here. So, let's be real about this because my goal is to be very neutral, but give you my opinion where it belongs and not just cause doom and gloom, but just educate you.
So, BMP Parabus in 2007 was an issue of what we call price discovery failure. Really, BNP Paradise failed in that we couldn't calculate the value of subprime mortgages anymore. And as a result of that, BNP Parabus said, "Hey, you know what? We're just going to we're just going to stop trying to let people get their money out of these subprime mortgage funds because we have no idea what they're actually worth anymore.
That could be because the rating agencies failed. It could be because there was fraud. It could be because there was 10 to 30x leverage in the real estate market back then on subprime mortgages with no income, no job, no asset loans. Anything is possible. And back then it was deemed that we basically had a full-on market seizure.
this subprime contagion led to this rapid unwind and so you had this uh indefinite freeze on people being able to unwind. Now that freeze actually put a bandage on the market for a period of time. Remember we didn't actually have Lehman Brothers until 13 months after that moment. So when we start seeing these early warning signs, don't think that oh we're falling off the cliff tomorrow, sell everything, buy gold.
Honestly, buying gold right now, you're probably buying at the top. We're not falling off the cliff tomorrow. But we're starting to see these breadcrumbs that if we were in the future, you know, we'd probably be looking back on if we were reading the chapter book like we know what's coming in the next chapter.
The problem is we don't know which page it's coming on. But I also want to be realistic that yeah, there is a possibility that these this sort of rhyming and people trying to say this time is different, everything's fine might also be wrong. This could be a real issue. What do we have right now with Blue Owl Capital?
Well, Blue Capital just argued that they need to freeze all redemptions on their fund because they want to give investors a fair and equal pro- ROA opportunity to liquidate the fund. Reuters just reported that Blue Owl halts redemptions at one of its funds, deepening the selloff in private equity shares.
Now, the fund where they held withdrawals is not public. On a public fund, you could just swipe up and sell. The problem with F or Blue Owl Technologies, for example, one of the Blue Owl funds, is that this particular one, well, it's been crashing ever since they went public from a high of 20 bucks down to now just $12 as low as $11.73.
And we just had another 2.5% selloff today as we hear about this freezing or gating of redemptions for a different Blue Owl fund. Now, the private Blue Owl Fund in that Reuters article does argue that they were able to sell off some of their portfolio. They're selling off $1.4 billion in assets from three of its credit funds so they can return capital to the investors who want their money out and they can pay down debt.
Now, Blackstone had what was called a B REIT or Blackstone real estate investment trust that also withheld at one point or gated redemptions because they were hitting max. And the hope was that eventually they could sell some assets and stop the bleeding. But you usually don't see a recovery on these funds once the bleeding begins.
People are just grateful to get their money out and the bleeding just keeps going. It's kind of what you saw in 2007. doesn't mean you're falling off a cliff tomorrow, but it means the bleeding has begun, right? The patient is sick. Now, Blue Owl does something that's really interesting. Blue Owl goes on to say that they ended up selling some of these loans while the whole financial sector was down a lot today, you know, and including yesterday, right?
Other private equity firms dragged down with Blue Owl. Apollo was down nearly 6%. Aries was down. Blackstone was down. Both more than 6%. KKR down 4%. Carile skidded more than 5%. Right? So, we saw a lot of aggressiveness in some of these falls. But Blue Owl is actually trying to tell us, guys, don't worry, everything is okay.
Now, that could be because Blue Owl is actually trying to argue, hey, everything is fine. Or maybe it's just because the founders leveraged a lot of their ownership in these companies to go buy a hockey team. Maybe. And maybe, just maybe, they're a little incentivized not to tell us the truth. So, let's take that jade and understand what they're arguing.
They are arguing that they are receiving 99.7% of par value on their loans. Now, keep that in mind. I'm going to explain everything what that means in just a moment. But what they're basically branding to you is that, hey, we're getting 99 cents on the dollar here. There's nothing to worry about. Why would you be worried?
We are literally selling $1.4 billion of loans at 99.7 to 98 or 99.8 cents on the dollar across 128 different companies in 27 industries. Our loans are great. they're really trying to brand that hey other institutions are buying this like pension funds or insurance companies. And so obviously some there's some market liquidity available.
But what has a lot of people questioning their head or scratching their head, making them wonder, is this actually what's going on is that the public funds for Blue Owl are trading at about a 30% discount. And they just had a merger that totally failed, which is also really interesting. See, Blue Owl tried to merge one of their business development corporations in November of last year, but that failed because investors realized they would have had to have taken a haircut.
People didn't want to take a haircut on their actual ownership. So, that failed and you actually saw more of a sell-off in some of the public versions of these funds because people are nervous. They want their money out. And this is leading some people to say, "hm, what if the market is actually sussing something out?
What if when this company, Blue Owl, who did the $27 billion data center deal for Meta, so Meta can hide that debt off balance sheet and Blue Owl fund holders can hold the bag on that Meta data centers, you know, for Blackwells or H100s or whatever?" What if when Blue Owl says, "Hey guys, look, the loans were hundred cents on the dollar when we issued them.
We're selling them for basically par value. Everything's good." What if the market is actually sussing out that there's a reason to apply a discount here? That maybe these blue owl funds are actually a lot riskier than we think. Why could that be? And could that signal contagion to the banking industry and affect the entire global financial system?
Again, deja vu like 2007. Well, this is where we get to the whiteboard. Let's say you borrowed $100 million from Blue Owl and you couldn't make the payment for the last 3 years because interest rates have gone up. And all of a sudden, you actually own $100 million par value on the loan plus so the original value, right?
Plus $20 million of back interest or acrruel. We won't actually know what that number is for a few months, if at all. It depends what we actually get in disclosures to be determined. that some folks are appropriately applying some jadedness to this and they're saying, "Hey, if there's a bunch of payment in kind acrruel back here, this is not actually a $und00 million loan.
This is actually $120 million loan." Which means if you're buying this $120 million package essentially that you could collect on for 99.5 on the dollar on the original dollar, you're actually getting more like a 20% discount over here. But what's more than that is beyond this 20% discount and not knowing about this, some people are also arguing that Blue Owl Capital may have cherrypicked the best quality loans to try to mask riskier exposure.
Now, they suggest that they sold slices of everything, but we don't know exactly what they sold. We don't have all the detail. So, we don't know if we're being told a story or being sold a story. We don't know. But the point is, there's always creativity in finance. And if you're selling your best loans during a bank run, then it could make it seem like everything's actually okay.
But the reality is you're really just buying time. You're telling everybody at the gate, "Don't worry, the ship isn't sinking. Everything's fine. Stay calm and go back to your stateateroom. you'll be just fine. Meanwhile, the suits on the deck are jumping onto the lifeboats, which I hate to say it, but is a little bit what I think Robin Hood is doing with their new Robin Hood Ventures Fund.
I think a lot of venture capital funds have money tied up in private equity and companies are refusing to IPO because it's not the best IPO market right now. Look at what Wealthfront or CLA have done. CLA's down like 75% from IPO. Wealthfront fell like 50% from IPO. Figma is down like 80% from IPO. Yeah, some of these have bounced over the last couple days, but man, did you want to buy it at IPO?
Whoever bought it at IPO was just exit liquidity. And this is why some people think really what's happening is they're trying to keep everyone calm to make you think everything is fine when the reality is the patient is bleeding out. Now, the CEO, these aren't even my words, the CEO of Blue Owl, one of the co-CEOs, they say, quote, "The point being like somehow just by talking about this enough, people have worked themselves into this imaginary world where there's some big or potential credit problem." Yeah, that is a quote from the co-CEOs of Blue Owl.
And I tweeted on November 24th, quote, I guess he's ignoring theirricolor failure, the first brand's collapse, UBS's two private credit funds closing, Black Rock's Renovo Homes being written off as 100% loss, the Five-Star Development bankruptcy, the SER Hotel Group bankruptcy, and again, maybe some of these companies deserve to go bankrupt and fine, they're gone.
But could this all be a warning sign of something bigger coming? UBS thinks so. Just a few weeks ago, UBS warned that artificial intelligence could trigger private credit defaults of 13% due to AI disruption. Now, that might not sound like a lot, but 13% in private credit disruption would be a massive selloff on loan balance sheets, which could unfortunately trigger a big flight to the exits.
And some of that flight to the exits is exactly what we're seeing in public markets now. So either public markets are overreacting to warnings from companies like UBS or they're snuffing out that something is actually wrong. Now again, I don't want to be Mr. Doom and Gloom. I make it clear every morning in my alpha report.
This is where I am on the bare bull scale. Here's my logical fundamental analysis of where there are deals to be bought and where not. I remember buying Nvidia at the bottom in 2022 when I made millions of dollars on that trade and I like buying when things are in pain. I've got a list of stocks I really like and we just put 300K into those stocks and I've got lots of exposure to these stocks.
I love them. But in fairness, I'm also being cautious. And so if you want to learn more about exactly what we're doing on either trading or short-term, medium-term, or long-term strategies, consider joining the membership over at meet.com. You pay once, you get lifetime access. Current coupon is baby comeback and expires Friday night.
Uh that's uh tomorrow, but I guess it depends on when you're watching this video. It expires Friday night at 11:59 p.m. Haven't had a price increase in about 3 and a half weeks. So, we'll be having another price increase. So, check that out over at me.com. But again, look at this. Blue Owl, currently trading for $121 with a net asset value per its disclosure on December 31st of $17.33 per share indicates they are trading for a 30.7% discount right now.
Now, part of this could be because of the fact that they IPOed and people who are insiders are now able to dump. They started well currently as of February 19th 47% of insiders have been able to sell shares and for the next few months we're going to see an additional 10.6% unlock all the way until June 12th 2026.
So maybe between now and the summer when all the insiders have fully exited their positions so to speak if they are really dumping which does also raise the question of why are all the insiders dumping. It kind of makes you think maybe this is just an a liquidity issue. Maybe new IPOs are just chasing for fewer dollars that aren't available and people are getting scared that they were promised a yield and liquidity.
And what a surprise that illusion has been shattered much like the illusion of the subprime mortgage crisis that subprime loans because they were backed by people's homes would always be able to sell like cash. This, by the way, is the exact same kind of promise that, in my opinion, you're hearing from the co-CEOs in their earnings call.
In their last earnings call at Blue Owl, they said they see green flags, not yellow flags, not red flags. Management says everything is pristine at Blue Owl Capital. Again, though, the market doesn't seem convinced. And so this has some people wondering, is it possible that you guys are lying after y'all y'all just got sued and the company representatives claimed that there was no meaningful pressure on redemptions, yet their redemptions are up 20% year-over-year and now they're shutting down redemptions?
Is it possible that they're lying? And why would they lie? Oh, I don't know. Is it possible that in October of 2024, the co-CEOs of Blue Owl bought a majority stake in the National Hockey League, well the NHL's Tampa Bay Lightning for $1.8 billion, which happens to be roughly around the time that they took out a pledge or a margin loan against Blue Owl stock.
They literally own or have pledged more than 106 million units shares of their stock. It's about 6.6% 6% of the entire company outstanding, which roughly works out to about half of their holdings, they've margined up. And so people are wondering, wait a sec, if you guys are that margined, are you guys incentivized to tell us the truth?
Because again, they pledged quote more than half of their Blue Owl stakes to get loans. We don't exactly know where that is. That's per Bloomberg. We don't know exactly where that debt went, but we do know that they made their pledge and then all of a sudden managed to buy a majority stake, so more than 50% in Tampa Bay Lightning.
Kind of interesting. Does make you scratch your head a little bit. So then we get to the question of contagion. What happens if something like this blows up? Well, JP Morgan has done some stress tests and they argue that if we get an increase in default rates that start compounding and compounding compounding in the worst case scenario of software credit default, so just the software sector, 75% default rate, 10% recovery rate, we would see massive losses for companies about 67% losses in private credit software loans would get written down to zero.
if this blows up. Now, this is JP Morgan's stress test, and a lot of people, including the International Monetary Fund, actually warn us about stress tests. In fact, take a look at these pages from the International Monetary Fund's global stability report, literally called shifting ground beneath the calm.
Hm, interesting. And here you'll find that banks lend banks have lent to a variety of non-bank financial intermediary companies including mortgage companies, investment funds like private credit funds and otherwise. And a lot of people are like, Kevin, who cares about private credit? It's just a $3 trillion market.
It's grown to about three. It's expected to grow to about $3.2 trillion soon. Uh but anyway, you know, at the time of this writing, it was deemed to be about $2.6 trillion. And so a lot of people are like, "Huh, Kevin, like does this really matter?" And the IMF tells us, "Yeah, it might." Quote, "While large banks serve as the primary lenders to non-bank financial intermediaries, accounting for 90% of all lending, exposure concentration is more severe amongst large regional banks and those with assets under hundred billion.
In other words, the smaller banks could get hit even harder than the large banks. But keep in mind, large banks account for 90% of non-bank financial intermediary lending. So, what does that mean? That means private credit funds are getting a lot of their money from the big banks. So, even though the big banks are telling us, "Hey guys, we're not really lending directly to the private credit funds." Oh, wait.
They actually just flipped their script on that even though they have been telling us we're not we don't have direct exposure to private credit. The IMF says they actually have like a 90% exposure to private credit because they're the ones funding the very companies lending to all of the individual companies that are taking on private credit.
But now because they have FOMO, they're actually going directly into private credit themselves. They're missing out on the FOMO of the runup that has happened over the few last few years. Now, Bank of America is committing $25 billion to private credit deals, directly lending to private credit. JP Morgan has also led Bank of America to this.
So, now you've got the actual banking industry doubling down on private credit, which the IMF has been warning about. Now, what does the IMF actually say could happen? Well, they say banks could face liquidity pressures and may need to use less liquid assets to cover potential outflows from private credit and liquidity lines.
Sensitivity analysis shows that if NBFI borrowers were to fully draw these lines, 4% of US banks would lack enough liquid assets to meet the outflows. In other words, you would have a bank run right away. That number of banks under severe liquidity stress would actually rise to 5% of banks in Europe and 14% of banks in the United States, not including bankruptcies.
They literally write right here, we didn't even consider if there's a second order effect of bankruptcies that follow up after that. So in other words, this bleeding is a real issue and we have the International Monetary Fund directly telling us losses are going to be much more meaningful for North American and European banks.
And so sensitivity directly to private credit from big banks exists. And this is all why I say like this isn't doom and gloom. This is just a fact of I think people are fleeing for the exits. Here's one that says, "A bond with an equity kicker. What could go wrong? Blue Owl length structured note is now worth just 47 cents on the dollar." Well, folks, what could go wrong is another global financial crisis that now instead of being banks lending to homeowners, it's banks lending to private credit funds, lending to software companies and AI companies.
So, I think we would be blind not to pay attention to these issues and at least keep our finger on the pulse. So, if you want to keep your finger on the pulse, subscribe to the channel. Not only we're going to post more videos on this as we get more information on this and deep dive this over and over and over again as new information comes out obviously, but we're also going to be making our investing plan and revising our investment plan as we move through this crisis or not.
Ready or not, here we come. in the course member live streams with trade alerts and all the lectures on building your wealth. Go check those out over at meetke.com. Small note, if you want a quick sample of what our reinvest AI looks like, take a look on screen here. We found a deal that just went under contract that was listed for $2 million.
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