저자: JessicaInskeep · 외국인
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연준 금리인하 기대(확률 35%→80%)와 AI 버블 우려 속 기술주 조정. 알파벳은 Gemini 3, TPU-Meta 딜 등 AI 수익원 확대로 매력적이라 평가, 눌림 시 매수 제시. 엔비디아는 CUDA 등 소프트웨어 해자로 TPU 경쟁 영향이 제한적이라 판단, 185~188 저항 회복 여부가 관건. 오라클은 5년 비취소 계약 기반 선투자 구조로 리스크는 크나 상승 여력 여전히 긍정적, 180~189 지지 확인 중요. Rick은 엔비디아 헤드앤숄더 넥라인(177) 이탈 가능성과 하방 지지 165를 언급.
다듬은 글
It's time now for the big three. We've got three stocks, three charts. Rick Ducat, of course, joining us to take us through the charts and here to take us through the picks for today, Jessica Insk. Thank you so much both of you for being here. Jessica, I we've got a big tech pick today. Just tech across the board.
I'm watching the tech draw down on the NASDAQ lower on the day. We're seeing a bit of a sell-off here. You know, your first pick is one I was just talking about with our previous guest, Alphabet. you know, walk us through this pick for Google and and how much of it's tied to their recent move to the upside and some of these headlines we're seeing.
Yeah, absolutely. And I think a lot of this has to do with the broader market view of how the market really is favoring having Fed interest rate cuts on the table. Last week, if we looked at Fed funds futures on Thursday, it was about a 35% chance of a rate cut. Now, we're up to about 80%. But that feeds into the reason why I want to bring that up first is the massive debt cycles that we're seeing with these hyperscalers and with these tech plays and that goes into the commentary that Michael Bur has made with just these concerns of AI bubble that's floating around that's really causing part parts of this tech selloff and then the competition is heating up as we see Google emerge with their release of Gemini 3.
So Google I I want to pay attention to this for a couple of reasons. one, we see their primary revenue driver as ad revenue and also search results. Something we've been watching for. Their search results have been really great and that's fantastic. But something that we've been talking about more recently is TPUs.
Those TPUs are not necessarily new. They have been around for a while. However, this integration and deal with Meta, that is something that is new. But that says to me as Google is expanding their revenue streams and leaning more into AI and it's really woken up that AI trade if you will. Even though we have a selloff because of the the market cap weight that there is in Nvidia, I still think even we're hitting all-time highs with Google, the investments that they're making, the free cash flow that they have, and now the deals that are emerging with this TPUs make it still a great pick.
Even though we're at all-time highs, I wouldn't maybe if we watch for pullbacks, add it to your portfolio. But it's just interesting to see how this AI narrative is really playing out. Very interesting to see how it's playing out too on an individual company basis as well. Because as we see some move to the upside, we see others pulled heavily down, you know, Rick, as we look at the technicals here for Alphabet, we can see this massive move to the upside that they've been experiencing, you know, in the last several months here.
But what are the technicals telling us? Yes. Uh just kind of exhibiting that stairstep type of pattern where we see sharp rallies, consolidative phases and then the pattern sort of repeats. We we seem to be still uh not really hitting that consolidative phase just yet here. So now we have two uh areas to consider here.
To the upside, we are in relatively uncharted territory, no pun intended, but 328.883 was our area that we've uh hit our highs at so far. We'll talk more about the highs a little bit later, but low points to consider, uh 30642 was our high point before we had our gap to the upside. So around, you know, 306 perhaps, uh you might be looking for to fill that gap and consider uh uh that to be a pullback opportunity.
But beyond that too, we had this area here near 291 and this area here near 295 giving us the boundaries of this brief uh sideways range here before price broke to the upside out of this uh rising wedge type shape here. We had an upside breakout from uh a pattern that was uh uh you know showing uh price appreciation here.
So extra uh strength even that we see in this breakout. So, when we also look at our moving averages here, our yellow 21-day EMA still kind of within the boundaries of that range that I just discussed, that's our closest short-term moving average near about 287. When we look at RSI, our measure of momentum, we can see that Alphabet has been in the overbought area many times here during the past uh 6 months or so.
Uh so, we can see that even as that was happening, we were having a bit of a downward trajectory in the RSI. Now it seems like we are making new relative highs and breaking above the trend line and also uh breaking back into the overbought area all at once. So uh many traders would typically view that as being more of a bullish development here.
So when we uh think about volume, our nearest volume node lines up very closely with our moving average and our plus one standard deviation channel for potential support near about 285. So that's the uh uh heavy trading area. We can see that that's uh pretty obvious. The only uh time we uh place we spent any time recently here was that sideways range here.
But to the upside, our plus two standard deviation channel comes in here near about 324 325. So that could be a short-term uh speed bump to consider as we go forward. All right. And taking a look at Alphabet right now trading at 32080. They'd have to move a little bit more than 4% to the upside to hit that $4 trillion market cap that everyone seems to have their eyes on today.
But Jessica, your next pick here is the name that's been in conversation alongside of Alphabet with some of their recent headlines, Nvidia. You know, shares under pressure. We're down about 5% right now, but my last guest said that he doesn't really think any of these recent Google headlines, these potential Google Meta deal really is going to have a major impact on Nvidia.
He actually called it a small negative. You know, what's your thought on Nvidia? I completely agree. So when we're looking at TPUs versus GPUs and the competition that's heating up with Nvidia, it is competitive in terms of hardware, not software. Nvidia is more than just GPUs and they've created a moat with the software aspect.
So we're talking about CUDA and other aspects that Nvidia offers. So we have these GPUs. Yes, that's the hardware. GPUs are more general. We started as a graphics card. Now they've been utilized as AI. whereas TPUs are a little more focused on AI, hence why the enhancement. But that makes me really go back to what happened with DeepSeek when we had a selloff on Nvidia.
When all in all reality, there's a huge ham for all of artificial intelligence and a lot of room for everyone at the table. But from a competition perspective, we cannot we cannot forget the software and the mo that is happening around Nvidia. And the pipeline is still very large, especially with Blackwell and there's still a lot of spending that's happening.
So I don't think that this is a direct competition more broadly. It's just in one component of Nvidia because of the software you need it to train the models. It's a replacing your entire stack is just such a big lift. I don't see how that would shift all the way to Google. Google's TPUs are going to be more of an enhancement whereas you still need to rely a lot on Nvidia because of the mode that they've created because of the software capabilities.
All right, Rick. And as we look at Nvidia and as we've talked about Nvidia on a near daily basis in terms of the technicals we're seeing, you know, the last month has been a bit of a rough go for Nvidia, a lot of choppiness. They're down more than 7%. You know, but year-to- date still up close to 30%.
When you look at the technicals of how it's been affected by some of this AI bubble talk and these recent headlines, you know, what are they showing us? So, like our last chart, we had more of a rising wedge type pattern here, but the main difference is that this one is much uh less steep here. This was a much more gradual ascension here rather than alphabets a very sharp rally.
So in this case what we had was a sideways range you could identify here between about 165 and 185. Then after some uh fluctuations we had our highs here near 212. And uh another thing too that you could consider is it looks like a a head and shoulders type setup was developing here. You can see our shoulders and our head and this was our neckline which is the breakdown point there near 177.
So, we bounced off that area several times, including yesterday. Now, it's seeming like perhaps we could be moving more toward the downside here. So, if you were to to look for further support going lower, 165, as I said, our our low point from our range stands out as a potential supportive area uh for a pullback if we do start to uh break more to the downside here.
So, uh now if you consider the momentum picture here, RSI once again looks extremely different. We can see that our downward trend line is being broken though. Uh but not really getting a corresponding push back above that 50 midline here. So a bit of a flop so far, but uh the day is still young. We'll have to see what happens here in this name.
If we were to move to the upside, short-term resistance here at these repeated lows near 177 stand out. Uh so look for momentum to push above 50 in tandem with that development there. Uh so we can also see here that we have our moving averages lining up with our linear regression line as well as the 185 level is also quite close.
So 185 to 188 that would be the uh resistance point and that would also mark the point where we start to move out of this big volume node here. So that's the heavy volume area. That's where the bulls would want to clear in order to resume some kind of uptrend here. really very little uh in terms of heavy trading activity until all the way down here near 155 with our moving average our 252day EMA.
Yeah, and Nvidia right now trading at 17398 down a little bit more than 4 and a half% today. Now Jessica, your last pick, another big AI tech name here, but Oracle has been just punished this last month, trading down more than 30%. Lots of people we've spoken to argue that it's not fair its treatment over the last month.
You walk us through your pick here on Oracle and are we bearish or bullish here? I'm still bullish on Oracle and it's definitely been punished because of this AI narrative of repeat capital and the leverage that's going into the AI trade. And if we looked purely from a number basis and the mega cap securities who have the most leverage, Oracle will absolutely pop up.
However, it's the structure that I argue is really important. If we think about the first debt securities that they issued back in September of about 18 billion that was very o overs subscribed which tells me that there was a lot of c consumer confidence or investor confidence at that time frame. So then we got into that second round where we saw these sell off within the credit market and there was less confidence but that also coincides with some of the Michael Bur statements of what's happening with depreciating assets.
So then that makes me want to go into the actual structure of what's happening. Now, I like the way that Oracle has structured this. When they are financing, it's based off of, yes, a high upfront investment, but it's also contracts that they already have in place. So, they're not financing waiting or hoping for revenue.
It's for contracts that are basically giving them revenue. So, they're five-year contracts. They're non-canc they you cannot cancel them, which gives them pricing power, but gives them more predictable revenue streams. And it also removes this GPU refresh and the depreciation the and alleviates that concern that's really going around the market and that narrative.
So because it's punished so much yes it is a high upfront investment and because there is high debt associated with this I absolutely agree that is a risk but higher risk comes higher reward. If it does pan out and there this investment does lead over to revenue and we start increasing positive free cash flow again then that's going to be really really good for Oracle.
And it seems like management has a clear path to profitability and that is extremely important especially as we have these comparisons to circular capital what happened in the dot bubble the one thing that was lacking was clear path of profitability. So I want to make sure that we see clear path of profitability and I do see that with Oracle.
All right Rick so with high risk comes high reward. You can see a lot of gaps in this chart here. You know take us through the technicals. Yeah for sure. That's uh one of these inflection points here that we are at uh pretty close to at least right now. 180 to 189 are two green lines here. You can see just several times that was an important boundary and high point uh kind of for two sets of price activity.
It was also where we had this big gap here. So now we have touched that level. We haven't quite filled the gap but we have touched on the uh low point from where price activity began after the gap up. So uh 180 uh 189 uh 180 those are the two levels that stick out in the near term to the downside. Uh 217 to the upside high points and subsequent low points low points here and then a breakdown point here as well.
We are uh near uh some possible conclusion one way or the other to our falling wedge type shape here. But that doesn't mean a breakout's coming. It could just go sideways here. But I'm just saying we're running out of time in this pattern for uh uh one way or the other to uh uh see some kind of a push for directionality here.
The bulls would obviously hope for an upside breakout that would uh recapture this area here where we have our moving averages coinciding our short-term 9-day. Our long-term purple 250 2-day RSI also still quite oversold here. So, uh should be an interesting uh week for this particular stock in this short holiday week.
All right. All right. And I did mention, you know, down more than 30% for Oracle in the past month, but year-to- date, it is still up 17%. So, you know, performing in line with the broader market. Jessica, I want to thank you for being with us today for Big Three. That's Jessica Inscott from stockbrokers.com and of course Rick Dukat, our lead market technician for breaking down all of the technicals.
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