Best Semiconductor Stocks: Taiwan Semiconductor Stock vs. ASML Stock | TSM Stock vs. ASML Stock

요약 보기

TSMC와 ASML 비교 분석. TSMC는 매출·영업이익률·현금흐름 우위, ASML은 2025년 매출 회복 기대와 ROIC 상승. 밸류에이션은 비슷(TSMC 선행PER 21, ASML 24)하며 지정학 리스크는 TSMC가 더 큼. 두 종목 모두 매수 등급이나 근소하게 ASML 선호.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. semiconductor stock investors are pleased in 2024 as major indexes covering semiconductor stocks are up significantly in 2024 of course Nvidia is driving that growth its phenomenal increases in revenue and the increa create creating booming demand for Semiconductor chips worldwide interestingly Nvidia outsources its manufacturing which also sources some of its Machinery from asml so it's an interesting comparison or asml semiconductor stocks on revenue on operating margin n valuation and looking ahead to their 5-year forecast uy today tarting with Revenue you can see Taiwan semiconductor has exploded Revenue in the last two years or so 76 billion in trailing 12- month Revenue that's up from around 40 billion in 2021 and up from closer to 20 billion in 2015 Taiwan semiconductors gained significant market share in the recent decade it works with companies like Nvidia AMD and of course Apple to manufacture some of the highest Tech manufacturing of semiconductor chips in the world meanwhile asml Revenue has been negative in 2024 management said that 2025 will be a much better year than 2024 and it's investing accordingly preparing to have the latest generation technology available for companies like TSM and Samsung and Intel and Micron which are upgrading to the latest generation technology with smaller and smaller transistors to meet this Rising demand for Semiconductor chips from the AI industry asml has one of the strongest competitive advantages in the highest node in the highest Tech regions areas of semiconductors and so companies like TSM Intel Micron that I mentioned earlier it's pretty much the only place to go if you want to get that euv technology so its competitive position is very strong in its character now you look atter at this metric than asml 42% in the most recent update compared to 31% for asml and it's been this way for a decade where Taiwan semiconductors operating margin is about 10 percentage points better than asml similarly the cash flow from operations to sales metric highlights Taiwan semiconductors advantage in this metric 61% which is remarkably strong for TSM compared to 20% for asml I highlighted that the last year or so has been difficult for asml but looking ahead its prospects are very strong management set starting 2025 there's going to be a big Rebound in sales and profitability and you've noticed that tick up already but it's not really going to pick up until next year according to asml management and this company is excellent with forecast because it knows well ahead of time what its sales are going to be its machines that it sells are very expensive 1002 200 million milon each and so when it gets an order it knows well in advance with its few customers that it has it has relatively few customers that can afford a price tag that large so it's in constant communication with its customers so it knows what sales are going to be like for next year and probably the year after that and so management knowing that told investors 2025 is going to be strong looking ahead o increase earnings per share by about 22% for the next 5 years each year and remember these are estimates uh counted for by Yahoo finance bringing together so these are just estimates and take it for what it is interestingly the analysts that are following asml stock expect similar earnings per share growth for it over the next 5 years the difference being just five uh percentage points right uh asml is 25.5 five% while Taiwan semiconductor is 25.5% so very close in earnings per share expectations for the next 5 years for asml and Taiwan semiconductor and it makes sense because they're serving similar end markets they're serving similar end market demand so iill be similar for the next 5 years now now when we look at the return on invested Capital asml has shown significant Improvement in the last 3 to four years taking a big lead over Taiwan semiconductor this measures how good a company is at taking investor capital and turning it into profits asml at 38.6% is far ahead of Taiwan semiconductor at 21% but this is coming off a big burst here from asml prior to this burst Taiwan semiconductor was ahead of asml in this metric so I'm not certain that asml will hold disadvantage from TSM for the long term or if this was just a brief uptick for asml and you can already see this metric coming back downward it'll be interesting to see but given that management expects robust growth over the next couple of years it could be that as sml's profitability and its return on invest Capital have had a step higher given this change changing Dynamic of artificial intelligence and the booming demand created from artificial intelligence all right finally let's compare these two on valuati1 while asml is trading at a forward price to earnings of 24 similar valuations now one thing we haven't discussed is the geopolitical risk factor which is is strong for Taiwan semiconductor it's also evident in asml as it's getting restricted from selling its products to certain and markets that are deemed to be unfriendly to the United States and of course United States hold some sway in terms of directing where its allies allow for sales of this technology that's now becoming more and more strategically important Taiwan semiconductors is based in Taiwan which is a disputed C disputed country with China which claims that it should be part of China and has threatened to take it back and by force if necessary so there is that heightened geopolitical risk for each of these two but more so for Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing given all of these factors I've considered it's a very close call between these two in my decision I'll let you know that it was very close it wasn't a no-brainer where I said for sure this one is better than the other one so it's a close call even though if I had would pick asml today I would pick asml today but I wouldn't be surprised if you know two weeks from now that situation was reversed given changes in the price changes in the valuation changes in expectations so they're very close in terms of attractiveness as an investment I have each of these two stocks rated as a buy and I like asml just a little bit more than I like Taiwan semiconductor right n