저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 레포 시장 급등으로 유동성 스트레스 우려 제기. 기업 자사주 매입 둔화, 노동시장 참여율·장기실업 증가, 블랙프라이데이 소비 둔화 등을 경기침체 신호로 꼽음. 다만 본인은 50/50 시나리오로 보고 저점 매수 중이라 밝힘. 12월 연준 금리인하는 가능성이 높지만 매파적 인하가 될 것으로 전망. 빅테크 밸류에이션은 낮아졌다고 봄. 엔비디아는 일부 매도 중이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
Well, as usual, when the Federal Reserve's repo facility starts popping off, people get nervous about recession fears again. So, you can see on the right side of this chart, we've got the repo facility popping off again towards month end here. The same thing that we saw in October with the highest spike in repos since CO over here on October 31st.
And the reason this is concerning is because this facility never gets tapped for utility in normal functioning markets. And so at the same time as you've got the repo market popping off again suggesting liquidity stress, you have people coming in saying that, hey, the setup that we have of people throwing 401k retirement money into private equity is going to lead to a massive disaster, a financial crisis that taxpayers are going to have to bail out.
So, what I thought we'd do is why not reconcile all of the risks that we face for recession right now so we can keep an eye on them and we know what data to watch. Now, you know that you could go to meet Kevin.com/data and you can see my bull bear scale. My bull bear scale right now is pointedly in the middle.
We're on the teeter totter because of the issues that we face. Now, that doesn't mean I'm not buying. In fact, we were just buying the dip during the crisis that we recently saw. And of course, you can get all those trade alerts and the new reinvest course at meetc.com, Black Friday sales now, but more on that later.
Let's instead focus on some of these recessionary catalysts that we face. And so what we looked at is we looked at the city research macro think tank piece and they had some interesting arguments here. First, they suggest that AI investments right now still have more room to grow and that hopefully we could start seeing some of these productivity gains materialize next year.
And that's what we're looking for is a materialization of artificial intelligence spend because we know spend has been pretty wild on it. In fact, it's been one of the reasons why I think Bank of America is arguing we're seeing some diversifying from tech. In fact, tech indicating some of the weakest inflows, in fact, rather net outflows.
more big tech outflows now at quote multi-year extremes with tech seeing the biggest outflows for the sixth week and these tech flows at now record lows now the lowest level of tech flows since June of 2021 so what's going on here my assumption some form of profit taking going on in tech and I think it's one of the reasons why we're seeing valuations for some of those mag names pretty dang low right now.
I personally look at stocks like for example Meta and I'm like my goodness like some of these valuations are really low. Meta's trading for a 1.25 peg. It's remarkably low right now. And you see other institutions are starting to talk about this as well suggesting hey like this this seems odd. Why all of a sudden are we seeing some of these individual names sell so cheaply?
Here, for example, you have Franklin and Templeton making the argument that Nvidia smashed earnings. Yet, Nvidia is selling for a lower PE ratio than Walmart is. And Franklin and Templeton is essentially making the argument that there's this odd indiscriminate selling happening in tech right now. And it's unclear, is this happening because of people's fears regarding a potential recession, or is this just what I call smart diversifying?
I think that people might have become very overweight in technology. And so what you're seeing here, according to Bank of America, is single stock outflows, but large ETF inflows. So you're seeing money go into ETFs, 3.2 billion in the fourth week with fourth week of outflows for sorry, fourth week of outflows at 3.2 billion for single stocks.
But ETFs saw inflows, sixth week of inflows, $4.8 8 billion in my opinion suggesting people are building up resilience in their portfolio, diversifying away from some of those single stock names and getting baskets. It's somewhat kind of like like I had this like 1600% return on my Nvidia position, multi-million dollar Nvidia position, which is great, but I over the last few weeks I've been selling my Nvidia position.
I I send out alerts every time I sell it. You I think my average sell was probably somewhere around like 192 on Nvidia. I sold some over 200, some under 200, right? Plus or minus. And Nvidia keeps selling down right now, which is unfortunate because its valuation is actually low as long as growth continues, right?
As long as the PEG ratio for Nvidia goes, it's a $300 stock if that growth ratio continues. But people are profit taking. They're also profit taking on Google. They're diversifying away into other baskets. And so we have a basket, for example, of 10 stocks to buy for the next 10 years. we talk about in the alpha report all the time.
We just added our eighth and I've got nine and 10 coming up likely before the end of the year. But anyway, I'm really going from like that one stock concentration to 10. And I think that's kind of what you're seeing here in the Bank of America data as well. If I had to try to put an explanation on this, I think people are saying, "Look, I've made good money on some of these plays.
Yes, stocks could keep going up, but I'm going to diversify." Now, so far you're seeing private clients, so essentially retail at Bank of America leading institutions in dip buying. Uh so that is continuing. Uh however, you're seeing some more uh you know institutional buying. But the problem that you're getting right now is corporate buybacks are slowing down.
Now that's a potential one of the potential red flags for a recession. Now we don't, you know, only want to hang our hats on a recession thesis. I'm 50/50, right? I I plan for both scenarios. Oh my gosh, it's Taylor Rig. OH, I MISSED IT. They had this closeup of Taylor Riggs on FA Fox. I'm sorry, I got distracted there for a second.
But anyway, leading into a recession, you have um uh non-financial corporate buybacks. I want you to look at this. Corporate buybacks peaked out in about 1999. So about one year before the stock market bottomed and about or topped and about two years before recession. That happened again in 2006. Corporate buybacks peaked in 2006, about one year before the stock market topped and about two years before the 2008 recession.
Now, this is going back to 2001.com bubble and 2008. But what's really interesting is Bank of America is talking about this. Look at this. Bank of America says corporate client buybacks accelerated uh for a uh a third week to an 8week high, but the trailing 52- week of buybacks as a percentage of market cap has been declining since March to their lowest level since March of 2024, which is not great.
A potential weakness into 2026 would be weakness in corporate buybacks. So that'll be something else that we pay attention to. Now, if we go back to this city piece over here, we wrote down some red flags for recession. Okay, so um you know, they do talk about Fed Williams popping up the odds of a Fed rate cut.
Remember, we predicted that on ADP jobs day. We said, listen, we got a 43% chance of the Fed cutting rates in December. All you need right now is the Fed to come out before the Fed's blackout window starts today. Today is when the Fed's blackout window starts on Black Friday. So, they'll be silent until the Fed meeting December 10th.
And all you need is the Fed to talk it up. Williams talked it up. We're at an 83% chance of a cut right now. So, we're pretty much going to get it. So, what are the red flags? Okay, so the red flags of recession, we've got them enumerated. Well, they're not enumerated here, but we've got them listed here.
Red flags of recession. We know layoffs rising are a red flag, but the participation rate rising for the labor market is also an issue and city is paying attention to it as well. So outside of layoffs, I rate this is probably the second big flag red flag. Labor force participation can rise when the K-shaped economy keeps suffering.
So if we get weak Black Friday sales data, we'll see. I mean, so far we're kicking. Thank you, by the way. I think a lot of people are investing in Reinvest AI, the lifetime membership or the lifetime membership for the the you know meet Kevin membership uh all the trade alerts 9 course and everything.
They're taking advantage of the Black Friday sale. But I think that's different from consumers. You know consumers are are getting you know screwed by high prices and the K-shaped recovery. But I think people are still willing to invest in in their education and their future. But if we miss on Black Friday sales like the economy broadly, then people like this guy who are shilling that you're going to have this massive beat are going to look like clowns, but it's probably also going to be bad for stons.
Like listen to this guy how confident he is. Affordability crisis, whatever, what jobs, whatever people talk, retail sales have held up all year and they continue to be strong. And all the data that you can see now, we don't have government data for this month or recent dimes, but we have credit card data, other data.
It all shows big increases like 5% or even 6% gains year-over-year. You know, it's it's impossible to give you a precise point estimate, but I say at least a 5% year-over-year gain in retail sales during the holiday period. It could be more. At least the 5% could be more. Now, that doesn't jive with all estimates, mind you.
Estimates are a little all over the place on this. National Retail Foundation is forecasting a 3.7 to 4.2% rise. Uh you've got PWC in Deote though, the accounting firm seeing a potential 5 to 10% decline. If we get a 5% or 10% decline in Black Friday sales, people are going to SH9 bricks in the stock market.
And remember, the stock market selling off can be a recession cause itself. So not good. If we see a miss, that's why people are going to be paying attention to this. This could be a catalyst. Hopefully not. You know, Bloomberg saying shoppers are underwhelmed by deals and crowds on Black Friday. I mean, I have v like fond memories uh in like the early 2000s of going Black Friday shopping with my dad.
I actually talked about it yesterday with my dad. Like I told him, I miss going to Black Friday sales with you like at the mall. And he's like, Devin, I remember you waking me up at midnight. And then guess what he says next? You're gonna love what he says next. Go to meekke.com. Sign up for No, he doesn't say that.
No. Oh, he's like, "I remember you waking me up at midnight and dragging me to GameStop for the midnight sales." Dude, I wanted a job at GameStop so badly when I was a kid. GameStop, by the way, up 4%. Shout out to GameStop. Great balance sheet, by the way. Great, great balance sheet. I love what's going on at GameStop right now.
And the sales lately have been good. And as long as Bitcoin holds up, we won't have to take too much of a negative on on the quarterly earnings there due to Bitcoin write downs. &; Yeah, exactly. Uh but we have to also look at some of these other issues. Labor force participation is starting to rise now.
It could start rising because at if Black Friday sales miss and people get laid off, older people and families might have to go back to work. early retirees. There are two and a half million excess early retirees. If they go back to work or just more people have to participate, a single inome household has to turn into a dual income household because it's harder to get a job.
Participation rate goes up. The unemployment rate skyrockets. That's bad. So, ironically, the participation rate rising is not only a sign of economic stress, but a big move up in the unemployment rate. And it just started moving up. So layoffs rising, unemployment rate goes up. Participation rate rising, unemployment rate goes up.
The level of 27 weeks unemployed people. This is your longterm unemployed bunch of people, right? You could just Google it. St. Louis, Fred, 27 weeks unemployed. You want to pay attention to that. It is a leading sort of harbinger of a recession. And if you just look, zoom in over here, 2001 skyrockets.
2008 skyrockets. COVID, obviously. What's happening on the right, bouncing up again. But it's not just the 27we unemployed level. It's also black. Yes, the color the color of skin. Black unemployment rising is another harbinger. Uh this is seen right here. And I don't know if it's as much of a leading indicator as it is a coincident indicator.
But if you look at every recession 82 80 90 uh 2001 2008 co black unemployment rising is a harbinger of the unemployment rate rising. They may happen at the same time but as you can see right now there's a bit of a disconnect and with some of the missing data that we have black unemployment suddenly skyrocketing on the right.
Uh, some people are saying that and and you know this this is just like I'm going to try to be as neutral and observant here as possible because some people are going, "Oh my god, that's racist." But some people are making the argument that black individuals may be more likely to be exposed to being replaced by artificial intelligence.
I don't know if that's true. I've seen the argument though. Is it possible? I I don't know. But that's what some people are arguing. So maybe maybe there's a I I don't know. It historically hasn't been true, but historically we haven't had AI, right? So, I don't know. Uh then you also of course have this risk that the Federal Reserve exacerbates being too late because they look at uh still elevated core CPI levels because of inflation.
Of course, you have . But I'll tell you, you have to balance out this private credit concern with what happened with private credit and um oh, what was that company called? We just had a $300 million uh uh subprime mortgage money raise and I was absolutely blown away by this. By the way, you had like a 200 or $399 million money raise for a subprime uh uh credit Pagaya Pakaya the private credit issuer Pagaya $399 million subprime debt deal and they actually raised it.
Now, they had to increase the yield to justify, but still, man, what the hell? How is private credit and subprime auto in this environment still raising $399 million? Kind of not very recessionary, if you ask me. This is why the data is kind of like I don't know, man. Like, I don't know. Keep buying the dips.
Been winning. You know, every dip so far that's been bought this year has been a winner. You know what else is a winner is Reinvest AI. A ton of you signing up for this, by the way. I'd say probably at like a, you know, if I had to average it out, we're probably three people buying a Meet Kevin membership right now.
Uh, so if you go to meet Kevin.com, you get the Black Friday sale on the Meet Kevin membership, which gets the new course, by the way, that's coming out as well. That'll be great. And all of the other ones, mind you, gets everything, which is cool. Uh, but um, but there probably three people buying this for every seven of you buying the lifetime access to Reinvest AI.
And of course, some of you are bundling it up as well. If you join like the BKE membership, you get the bundle coupon. Um, but anyway, so um, yeah, this is really interesting. So, and of course, you have the Japanese carry trade, which is another risk factor, but that's more of an issue if we see a sudden reversal in some, you know, something going on with the USD to the yen, right?
Uh, there was a little bit of I I think people are once bitten, twice shy, so I see it as less of an issue. I think people are more likely to frontr run and rebalance. I think that's why we're seeing some of the single stock selling ETF buying because people are minimizing their margin. They're paying off some debts and it actually builds stability going into 2026 which is good.
So all of this is so far very 50/50 on data. I also think this Bur depreciation cycle is overblown. I think the Bur depreciation cycle is a postrecession issue, not a leading recession issue. That's my opinion with with the Bur cycle like it will be an issue but it'll happen in the future. We also uh you know they say here uh Croup reiterates that five stocks within the MAX 7 are trading at materially lower pees not including uh Tesla obviously materially lower forward pees relative to the start of the year.
This means we've seen more growth and more earnings at these mag five like Meta being part of them and they're actually becoming cheaper on a valuation basis while companies uh you know while all of a sudden people are worried and maybe diversifying away from them. I don't know but the valuations are not high on those.
Anyway, uh they say the Santa rally has not been kind to investors. What we really need to keep going to be bullish towards the end of the year is a bullish Fed. Bullish bullish Fed. Somebody says, "What is Reinvest AI?" Just go look it up. Look up the housing disaster video and you'll see it. So just go to YouTube really quick, type in Meet Kevin Housing Disaster.
Okay, meet Kevin Housing Disaster. And if you type that in, watch uh where is Oh, this one. This one right here. I just really effed up housing disaster. If you watch this video where I got the little light on my head, that's the video you want to watch to learn about the uh reinvest AI. It's it's house hacks AI product.
Uh and we're doing a Black Friday sale on it. It launches in December. You you lock in lifetime access. It's I think it's a killer deal, but if you watch that, you'll learn more about it. Uh okay. So anyway, so where was I? This Oh, yeah. this idea about the Fed going dovish in December. Bro, you can't you got to be kidding me.
They're not going to have data to be dovish on that. Uh, you know, it's ridiculous. Uh, so what you really have to Somebody says, "Did you watch Coffeezilla's video on Nvidia?" I'm sure he watched my analysis on Nvidia. Uh, but yeah. No, like like I we reviewed this in the yesterday Thanksgiving video.
Like he didn't really tell us anything new. We knew that. This is sort of a summary for uh the the the younger cohort. Uh but anyway, no, what you got to pay attention here to here is the Fed is not going to be dovish in December. I think Kevin prediction. Okay, you're going to and this is why I say the bullishness could temporarily end.
Uh D9 D9 bullish trend may end. Why? because at D10 we're going to get a hawkish cut. Uh so it'll be bullish that we get the cut, but you're going to get a hawkish cut and that's going to be bearish. Uh unfortunately, that's my take. So I I don't think that City is going to see a dovish Fed in the December meeting.
There's no way. You'll get the cut, but no way. What else do we have here? Uh we have uh Taylor Riggs. There's Taylor Riggs. Uh then over here you have the story. What do we have here? We've got late October, the real uh factor shock here. This is uh this is Goldman Sachs. Basically, they're talking about decing, you know, and breath has finally started to heal, which is bullish.
This means more stocks moving up versus down. You see this in the consumer names as well. Dave and Busters has had one hell of a rally uh from the bottom. You're also seeing Circle come back, by the way. Circle has gone full circle, fully retraced, 100% retracement. Flow's turning a little bit more positive.
That's great. Magga schism, expect the stimulus checks, they think so they could buy the house. That's fine. Uh and then we saw the Franklin Templeton piece. But yeah, I mean, if you look at some of the sticks, uh going into the close here, uh you you got you got a little bit of a push there on the cues.
Take a look at this here. Look at that. That's nice. Wow. That's nice. Finally broke off 6 uh 617. This has been our goal all day long was getting 619 to or 617 to break and we finally launched. This is great because it's a sign of institutional flows into broader ETFs at the close of the day. So that means holding 617 broadly bullish.
Good. I still maintain that we could get 627 by December 9th. So uh 627 by December 9th, but that's when the catalysts start getting a little harder. It means we don't necessarily go to a full retrace. It means we get the cues that go back up to about 627, not all-time high 637, but then we get a hawkish Fed and and then it's going to become, you know, we're going to be going back to uh the good old
data dependent. And that's of course where we decide are we going recessionary or not. So that's a bit of the data set for today. If we look at, you know, the economist, the economy talks about margin squeezes that could lead to people getting fired. Big deal. We already know that. I mean, people losing their jobs suck, but it's old news.
Uh, Axios has a piece saying that the only social media platform that's down since 2021 is X. So, they're arguing that people are uh fleeing X. You've got a clock tower for sale that went under contract, which is kind of cool, in the Tribeca region of Manhattan for like $19 million, which is really awesome.
It looks really cool. I'm totally jealous. American consumers are miserable, but they keep spending. We'll see on Black Friday deal data. And officials have been warning about the Hong Kong fire. Uh we did see commentary about this as well that uh the bamboo scaffolding as well as flammable foam panels along the side of the construction site uh were a long-term warning for these buildings, but uh apparently uh those warnings were not heeded at all.
So this gives you an idea of what's going on. Now there were also notes this morning about Zalinski and Zalinski is basically VP quitting. Now, something to know about this is it's entirely possible. Oh, while silver hits all-time highs, right? So, what's we'll talk about that in just a moment. What's interesting here is there are a lot of people that look at this with skepticism and they say that how interesting that as soon as you get this guy uh starts bagging on a potential peace deal between Russia and the United States for Ukraine, which is basically being negotiated by the United States.
As soon as this guy says, "Hey, we're not giving up. We're not giving in." all of a sudden he gets raided for corruption and then resigns. Is that really a surprise that you know on one hand you're going to have people going, "Oh, Ukraine corrupt. Haha, what a surprise." On the other hand, you're going to have people going, "Yep, people think Ukraine is corrupt." So therefore, the easiest way to get somebody to quit is to raid them for corruption.
and then you force them out and they're potentially a a sea block so to speak to getting your deal done. So people are going to assume they're guilty because that's the meme these days. That's the momentum these days is assume they're guilty. So you're going to get guilty until proven innocent. The fact that they resign is the expected outcome.
That's the expectation. And uh and maybe it makes it easier to get a deal in Ukraine. Kind of wild. a little cynical, but probably exactly what's going on. Silver hits an all-time high and uh gold is, you know, about now being talked about as potentially the uh you know, Reuters got a big piece about Tether uh aligning the rally in gold with Tether going to buy gold.
So, nothing to get gold and uh you know, metals bugs really excited than hearing crypto bros are buying gold. So, we'll see if that continues. Uh, and then the big thing to cap all of that off with is of course, let's just shout out those of you who bought the memberships within the last hour here. Okay, let's look at like the last 60 minutes of those of you who bought.
Uh, Motabique, Motabique, thanks for joining the Meet Kevin membership. Oh, we got the bundle. Motabique bought the ME Kevin membership and reinvest AI. Vic joins Reinvest AI. Keith joins the Meet Kevin membership. Here's Salvator. Salvatore joins the Reinvest AAI. Aaron joins the Meet Kevin membership.
Mangfan joins Reinvest AI. Join join John joins Reinvest AI. Carlos joins Reinvest AI. Matthew and Baddy. There's Baddy. Jonathan, Miguel, Justin, all of you. Reinvest AI. all within the last my list ends after an hour. So, uh that's all I got last hour there. Welcome aboard. Thank you for joining on Black Friday.
And then of course to top it off, yes, it does seem like Bitcoin is uh you know, while it had a little bit of a regain there of 90, little bit of profit taking again. You got to 93 and still a little bit of diversifying happening here. Uh some people might think that this is because of um you know Michael Sailor's strategy uh having some trouble raising money to keep supporting Bitcoin and so people may be moving from Bitcoin diversifying into who knows those broaderbased ETFs just like Croup is talking about.
Uh but uh but if you are going to buy oh we almost made it to 433. This was the goal uh on Tesla was getting to 433 today and we rejected 432 twice or 433 twice. Look at that. Two rejections. But anyway, uh if you are going to buy ETFs, remember that QQQM is much cheaper than QQQ to hold and uh that's because they don't advertise QQQM.
But evaluate the differences yourself and then uh you'll find out. So yeah, there you have it. So I think uh all that's left to talk about now is Oh, that's not what I meant to do. Welcome. Nice to have you. You want to talk about love making, right? Kevin is very talented, but I don't know tha.
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