저자: Just-InvestToday채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: Bill Miller는 알리바바(BABA)가 중국 규제 리스크로 과도하게 하락해 PER 약 15배로 저평가됐다고 보고 매수 입장을 유지한다. 발언 내용: 영상 당시 알리바바 주가는 약 118~122달러로, 1년 사이 크게 하락했다. Miller는 향후 3년간 연 15% 이상 성장 가능하다고 봤고, 시장이 규제 리스크를 이미 과도하게 반영했다고 판단했다. 근거: 알리바바는 과거 연 25~30% 성장했으나 앞으로는 둔화될 것으로 봤다. 그러나 주가는 2017년 수준으로 돌아가 있어, 시장이 사업 성장을 반영하지 않는 셈이라는 논리다. 리스크 및 조건: 교육업체처럼 비영리화 등 정부의 급진적 조치가 나올 경우가 최대 위험으로 언급됐다. 다만 Miller는 고용·경제 기여를 고려할 때 가능성이 낮다고 봤다. 사업 포트폴리오: 동남아 전자상거래(라자다), 터키 사업(트렌디올), 클라우드, 앤트그룹 등 핀테크 지분을 성장 동력으로 꼽았다. 위험 심리 분석: 투자자들이 위험에 과도하게 반응해 매도한다는 논리로, 페이스북 청문회 사례를 들며 이를 저가 매수 기회로 봤다. 진행자 입장: 진행자는 알리바바, 텐센트, JD.com을 합쳐 포트폴리오의 50% 이상을 보유 중이라고 밝혔다. 미국·유럽도 빅테크를 규제하므로 중국만의 문제가 아니라고 강조했다. 과매수 우려가 있던 초기 매수는 실수였다고 인정했다. 출연자 전망: Miller는 알리바바를 장기 보유할 가치가 있다고 봤다. 단기 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 발언은 없었다.
다듬은 글
bill miller doesn't have a huge like alibaba allocation like he has i think it's like three five percent of his portfolio so even if he's wrong in this bet it's not gonna kill him and that's what we gotta realize but me if i'm wrong on this bed it might it's gonna hurt man i'm not gonna lie man a great video man today we're talking about bill miller he is talking about alibaba and why he thinks it's a great purchase we're gonna break it down in this video man and if you don't know who bill miller is then you're living under a rock he beat the s p 15 years in a row he bet on amazon when it was out of favor he'd been on bitcoin when it's out of favor so this guy knows what he's doing he knows how to read the room especially when stocks are beaten down let's hear what he has to say about alibaba what he's seeing in the market regarding alibaba so before we get into this video guys man so come on man like it and subscribe click it click it click it so let's get into it right now just speaking of a a company that has come under uh scrutiny uh in its home market in china has been you know certainly the stock price has been affected uh by that and regulation from the chinese authorities and yet you continue to own it in a you know fairly sizable position in it look where alibaba is right now 122 dollars so he's talking about alibaba at this price right now pre-market 118 dollars it went down three percent and this is what's been going on in the market and this has been the story of alibaba basically down 60 fifty percent whatever it is but it's been down a lot for the year why yeah we we bought a chunk of it when when all of the uh stories broke about about jack not he disappeared for a while there's still stories every day there's a you know a story today about the common prosperity that president president xi wants in the new regulations for things like dd and gig workers and all of that is real we don't know how so that's what i'm saying too i bought it at the same time bill miller did when all the jack ma missing and all the probably potential fines which it came to be true that they were actually fighting alibaba and that's when i started buying that's when i started putting in money into it and that was one of my mistakes is that i put way too much money in the beginning and that's a learning lesson because it was still dealing with a lot of issues that have haven't been resolved yet so i just put put too much money into alibaba stock right away i should have just waited a little bit more to like just wait out what's gonna happen knowing that i know the price is gonna go down more because all the regulation anti-monopoly stuff wasn't solved how far that's going to go but right now the market price in my in my opinion fully reflects that in alibaba for example because it trades now about 15 times uh the next 12 months earnings and we think the company's going to growth is going to slow but it would be surprising to us if over the next three years they couldn't grow at least 15 percent a year generate a lot of cash still a dominant market position so there you have it man he's telling you that it's trading below 15 times next year's 12 months earnings man and he's saying that like if it's trading at that low of a price with a dominant market share are you telling me that alibaba can't grow at least 15 forward looking out and that's how you see it as like a amazing opportunity because if alibaba just goes 15 and they are saying that it's gonna grow 20 20 to 23 so if it's gonna grow 20 into the future with a dominant market share it's severely under value at this price and provides a huge upside but he's he did say that when we're looking at alibaba we don't know how far the regulation is gonna go but the market is pricing that all in and that's why it's trading so cheap so that's what he's seeing with alibaba right now deal with these political uncertainties there's a couple aspects to that uh the first one is we really try and understand based on what we know now about what the economic impact of those measures will have on these companies how will affect their earnings growth i mean alibaba was growing 25 percent a year at 30 a year for a long time and now it's going to be growing a lot less than that but again that's not reflected in the in the price uh and then the other the other part of it might have said or if i didn't i should have said that since the financial crisis oh the price rate now all of that future common prosperity regulation is reflected in the price and that's going to create all the upside and we got to remember though alibaba still has amazing businesses in the pipeline i talked about this they have a southeast asian business lazada they have a turkey business trundle they have freaking cloud right they still have at financial which is a big business man it's one of the leading players in the fintech in china tencent and freaking um alipay are the main dominant leaders of fintech and china they have table ideals that are still gaining market share in that sector so they still have so much potential to grow and i think people are just still discounting that they're not really thinking about the opportunity when they're thinking of baba they're just waning on the regulation and them not knowing what's going to happen which is a real risk people have been volatility and risk phobic and so they wherever they see perceived risk uh they flee from it because of the experience of the losses in the great financial crisis and that is so true man when anyone sees risk or uncertainty they they're just afraid man they just run to the hills if there's any type of perceived risk even if it's nothing that you even if it's something in the short term they're gonna leave they're gonna run away and that's why i see alibaba as such an amazing investment but even with that perceived risk there is still risk because the government sometimes might be unpredictable even though the government has been doing stuff that any economy has been doing they've been think about it usa italy whatever the place is uk they've all fined google for anti-monopoly stuff they all find all of these damn tech companies for the same thing china is doing to alibaba right so you can't take that regulation anti-monopoly stuff as it's just china it's every other country so that's how i think people are taking it too far like all this regulation happens everywhere it's not just focus on china people are just scared because people think that xi jinping is going to take over the company i think that's the fair it's not the fines because every company gets fined we just seen google get fined we've seen facebook get fined but people just think xi jinping is gonna take over the company and destroy it which has never happened in history but that doesn't mean it can't happen but it's just never happened no not so our our default position is that people overestimate perceived risk uh and uh and the real risk is tends to be much less and especially when there's a lot of headline risk about these companies you know we we have a big position in facebook some years ago when mark zuckerberg was dragged before congress and we went over to see clients over and over in europe and and they asked us about it and one of the things that we said what what are your other managers doing and well they're all getting rid of it and that is a perfect example man do you remember that whole time when zuckerberg had to go in congress and he had to plead his case and basically crying in front of all the congressmen the articles were going crazy man we even seen recently the articles going crazy about facebook and how that girl came out talked about kids and how it's affecting kids and stuff like that and what happened everyone boom just running for the hills again this is the same opportunity he's seeing for baba people see a little bit of risk and they just can't take it they just run away man and that's what we want we have to be honestly blessed by this opportunity you can't see that as a bad thing when institutional investors run for the hills we got to look at it as a positive that's giving us the opportunity to buy these cheap stocks so we have to be thankful for all the institutional investors crashing the stock and uh and that that turned out to be that weaker that turned out to be the bottom and then facebook's price so we alibaba is uh was 300 a year ago and uh remember alibaba was 300 a year ago look at this man like look where it was 300 bro 360 decline what has changed in alibaba it's not the fundamentals of the business nothing has changed in that so why is it so low yes regulation so it's not to do with the business it's all macro economic factors so it's trading around the damn same price as it was in 2017 so are you telling me the baba business hasn't grown since 2017 if it's selling at the same price that's what the market is telling you alibaba's business hasn't grown since 2017 right and that's what the market is telling you so how can you not see this as a huge buying opportunity and now it's 120.
so that that that come down reduces a lot of risk in the in that name and other names in that space i think the concern for us would be that something would happen that happened with the education companies where the party just just you know turned them into non-profits yeah and that's a huge thing do we think that alibaba is going to turn into a non-profit company that's the risk that he's trying to assess in his investment in alibaba and when you really ask that question like what would be the motive for that if they're providing so much jobs for the people if they're actually helping the economy grow and improve their economy what companies what situation would ji jinping use that leverage to just shut down alibaba he did it for the education because unfair for the population it was unfair for parents and they were just increasing the prices and forcing these kids that you have to go into these private sectors to get this education because you have to competing for spots that are like nothing so they're trying to get you're trying to make sure that education was basically free for all and make it more accessible for all people which i think that's pretty fair so what just what way can we see the government saying boom alibaba you are a private company now i just don't see that as it's providing so much growth for the economy of china it's basically the number one company alibaba and 10 cents so that's my reason why i just can't see that happening and the risk right now once the once the price gets lower and lower you're actually reducing the risk and you're actually making the business more favorable for upside opportunity because we already know the business is worth 300 it's just that the headlines the regulation xi jinping the trade war is causing all these issues so once the headlines settle we can see a big comeback in my opinion right but other than that too we got to remember that bill miller doesn't have a huge like alibaba allocation like he has i think it's like three five percent of his portfolio so even if he's wrong in this bet it's not gonna kill him and that's what we got to realize but me if i'm wrong on this bed it might it's gonna hurt man i'm not gonna lie man this is gonna hurt because remember i have alibaba tencent and jd.com all in my portfolio it's more than fifty percent of my portfolio so it definitely will hurt man so tell me what you think about this video is bill miller right on alibaba is you wrong about alibaba tell me what you think man so
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