저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
2021년 인플레이션이 공식 통계보다 훨씬 높다는 주장이 중심이다. 결론: 공식 CPI는 인플레이션을 과소평가하며, 주거비와 에너지 등 핵심 항목을 제대로 반영하지 못한다. 빌 애크먼 주장: 미 노동부 발표(2021년 11월 기준 1982년 이후 최고 상승률)보다 실제 CPI 상승률은 10%까지 될 수 있다고 봤다. 주거비 근거: 자가소유자환산임대료(OER)는 추정 방식이 부정확하며, 단독주택 임대시장은 전년 대비 7% 임대료 상승을 보이는데 OER은 3.5%다. 주거비 인플레이션은 수요·공급 추세상 쉽게 꺾이지 않을 것으로 봤다. 일시적 인플레이션론 비판: 캐시 우드 등이 말한 물류 병목 기반의 일시적 현상이라는 주장은 틀렸다고 본다. 기업 사례: 도브 비누 등 소비재가 4% 인상, 치폴레도 가격 인상, 임금 인상 요구가 커지고 있다. 대응 전략: 가격 결정력(pricing power)이 있는 기업에 투자해야 한다. 구글은 자본지출이 적고 광고 가격을 언제든 올릴 수 있어 예시로 들었다. 페이스북, 애플도 같은 맥락으로 언급했다. 현금 보관 리스크: 은행에 현금을 두면 인플레이션으로 가치가 계속 떨어진다고 경고했다. 언급 종목 방향: 구글·페이스북·애플 등 가격 결정력 보유 기업은 긍정적으로 언급되었다(구체적 목표가·기간 없음). 출연자 전망: 향후 1년 내외 인플레이션 지속을 암시하지만 구체적 수치 전망은 없다. 리스크: 해당 영상은 2021년 12월 기준이며, 자산 가격의 구체적 방향 예측이나 기간은 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
today we're talking about inflation 2021 what's causing all this inflation what is happening and kind of how can we fight it or just understanding the causes because we see right here bill ackman says official stats understate raging inflation and this inflation has just been going crazy of lately if you haven't even realized you haven't been noticing what's been going on is this even if you're like shopping even if you're buying groceries you see prices of like apples oranges everything going crazy and we see the housing market going crazy and the cpi is lying to us the federal reserve everyone's lying to us saying oh inflation's only four percent three percent but we know that is not accurate if we're living in the real world can you on the road to a thousand subscribers can you please help me get there man come on please come on subscribe right now press that button press that button look what they're saying the reason for inflation is cpa inflation rises to the three-month high in november retail inflation picked up in november despite excise duty cuts on fuel the rise was led by vegetable prices which increased because of unseasonal rainfall do you hear this they're blaming inflation on rising vegetable costs because the freaking rainfall the federal reserve wants you to believe that inflation is just at like four or five percent that's all but if you're living in the real world you're understanding what's going on you're seeing what's been printing and how much printing they're doing you understand that that is not the case they're just making up numbers they're not using accurate results for one when they look at the basket they calculate basically they calculate inflation by looking at a basket of goods to see how high compared to last year has prices risen over time or over the years and when they're looking at that look what they're looking at they're looking at vegetables like what the hell like they're not really looking at energy costs they're not really looking at housing they're not really looking at uh schooling cost like they're not looking at the main inflation like causes it's not all about your vegetables and fruits and that's the thing they're not really looking at they're looking at more oil and gas prices and they're trying to control free gas prices but that's not the accurate way to look at stuff look at they're looking at vegetable prices clothing and footwear housing inflation 3.7 percent but are they taking into account rent a dollar fuel than light inflation and transport like they're not really getting an accurate view of inflation and this is what bill ackman is saying bill ackman's saying they are underestimating inflation bill ackman thinks that reported u.s inflation is understated even though labor department released friday shows prices in november rising at their fastest pace since 1982.
the billionaire founder capital manager said the consumer price index increase could have been as high as 10 percent so that's what bill ackman is saying about inflation that it's the main driver is like the housing cost rent cause power reported inflation is understated owner's equivalent rent relies on owner service to estimate inflation and housing costs this is an extremely imprecise metric the single-family rental market provides more accurate data the oer in today's reported core cpi was 3.5 year-over-year the largest ownership nationwide single-family rentals are reporting 7 year-over-year rent increases oer is 30 of the core cpi calculation and 24 of the reported cpi housing inflation is unlikely to abate based on supply and demand trends and do you remember when kathy wood was saying that this is all transitory it's all about the freaking logistics and how the logistics is backed up that's what's causing all the inflation and when that settles it's just gonna go back to normal so now we're seeing the federal reserve coming out and saying that is not the truth that's far from the truth so how are we fighting this guy because i know a lot of you just have your your money in the bank just sitting there just burning cash it's just going down because every single year inflation increases 11 12 and you don't know how high that's going to go we see even products increasing in their prices man like they're raising dove soap and freaking consumer products by four percent in the third quarter so it's it's everything that's raising chipotle is even increasing its prices and people are demanding higher wages so we see what's happening in the market so how are you and fighting inflation as the money is just burning in the bank so the first thing we can do and the first thing we have to realize is that the stocks that we buy we have to make sure they have pricing power and that's super key we want companies with pricing power with strong competitive advantages that can thrive in any economic times man so that's what we're looking for like think about google they don't need a lot of assets they don't need a lot of capital expenditures to grow their business it's going to grow no matter what and google can raise their prices on their ads at any time depending on the market so that's an amazing company to have you can companies like facebook and all those other companies that just have low capital expenditures they can always raise their prices even a company like apple like apple just raises their prices and people are just still going out to buy their products so pricing power is key in these economic times man so that's one example of stocks that can just be amazing during these times so you don't have to worry about all the inflation in my next video i'm going to talk about more stocks that you can buy or more areas where you can invest in but that's it for this video guys please like and subscribe to my channel i'm going to see you in the next video peace
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