저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
알리바바(BABA)가 곧 크게 상승할 것이라는 주장이며, 현재 가격에서 매수 기회라고 본다. 첫째, 클라우드 지배력: 중국 클라우드 인프라 점유율 약 33%로 AWS와 같은 선두 위치라고 주장. 클라우드 매출 전년 대비 33% 성장, 해외 도매·실시간 사업 34% 성장을 근거로 제시. 둘째, 해외 이커머스 성장: 튀르키예 트렌디욜 사업 2020~2024년 연 22% 성장 전망, 동남아 라자다도 유사 성장률 기대. 해외 사업을 두 개의 성장 엔진으로 묘사. 셋째, 투자자의 데이 이벤트: 12월 16~17일 투자자의 날이 열리며, 이를 통해 시장이 사업 본질에 다시 집중하게 될 것이라 기대. 넷째, 중국 경기 부양: 중국 중앙은행의 지급준비율 인하(약 1.2조 위안 유동성 공급)로 소비가 늘고 알리바바의 이커머스 수혜가 커질 것으로 전망. 연평균 활성 소비자 10억 명 달성 목표도 강조. 리스크 언급: 중국 상장 폐지 규제(delisting) 우려가 단기적으로 주가에 부담이 될 수 있으나 장기적으로는 잊힐 것이라 봄. 다만 투자자가 경영진과 사업 방향을 신뢰하지 않으면 투자 성과가 나지 않을 수 있다고 함. 찰리 멍거의 알리바바 매수 이유를 도입부 근거로 내세움. 출연자 관점: 자신은 매수 쪽이며 가격이 크게 오를 것("explode")이라고 보지만, 영상 내에서도 본인 조사가 필요하다는 면책을 함.
다듬은 글
Alibaba and four reasons why the stock is going to explode. It's going to pop huge. I think it's a buy. But guys, still do your own investment research. This is not a buy signal or a buy order. Do your own research. In this video we're going to talk about it, because this is huge. I think there's so much opportunity here, especially at this price. It's amazing. You have to understand the reasons why Charlie Munger is waiting for this. He's probably going to double down, because he understands Alibaba stock is probably going to explode very soon. I'm going to present you all these huge opportunities, so watch to the end of the video. Why do I think Charlie Munger is laughing at everyone who laughs at him? Let's get into it. Before we do, we're providing you with so much new content, so please like and subscribe, click it down below right now.
Before we get into the first reason, I'm saying that Alibaba is about to explode because people keep forgetting how dominant they are in cloud. But remember, the delisting regulation issue is still hanging over Alibaba, so it may affect the price in the short term. In the long term, though, I think this regulation issue will shift, and people will forget about it in three or four months if it's no longer in the news every single day.
Remember, Alibaba currently owns about 33% of China's cloud infrastructure. That's a huge lead. Think of AWS, Amazon, and Microsoft. Microsoft Azure probably won't catch up to AWS for a long time, and maybe never, because AWS has such a head start and offers far more than Microsoft does. So people will automatically go to Amazon's network because of that head start. That's basically what Alibaba Cloud is providing.
Look at the earnings call. An analyst named Gary asked two questions. The first was about new growth you highlighted in the press release, including the international business and the cloud computing business. Cloud computing is a huge catalyst for Alibaba stock because it's starting to generate profit for the company. It's going to be huge, and they already dominate that segment. Cloud revenue resumed growth this quarter at 33% year over year. And the international wholesale and retail business as a whole grew 34% year over year. Cloud is growing 33%, international is growing 34%, and these businesses are succeeding. 34% growth is huge for Alibaba, and it's going to take over most of the revenue going forward. It will be slow, but it will keep hitting as the international segments and cloud computing keep growing faster. Look at the e-commerce markets: Trendyol, one of their e-commerce businesses in Turkey, is growing 22% from 2020 to 2024, and it's expected to grow at 24%. Lazada in Southeast Asia is expected to grow at the same rate. So they have two twin engines overseas providing huge international growth. On cloud, they see a lot of opportunity. They believe the cloud opportunity in China and the world is not just replacing existing IT, but because of cloud, new opportunities open up in intelligent services, 5G, networks, terminals, and edge computing. 5G hasn't even really started yet. I feel like people are discounting the cloud and their international business growth and just overlooking it.
The services they provide to their user base, like local services, still have a lot of potential. Globalization through Lazada and Trendyol is not a one-year investment period. It's several years, and that's what we need to take into account. These businesses generate value over time. You won't see growth right away. The investments Alibaba is making in these companies may take five or six years to bear fruit. So you have to believe in the business and believe in the CEO. If you believe the CEO is right, you may have success with Alibaba. You can also disagree. Maybe you don't think Alibaba has done a good job so far, or you don't think the CEO is reliable and don't believe in their investment initiatives. Then you can say you don't believe in the growth of these companies. That's a legitimate disagreement.
So those are two big reasons: cloud and international business growth. Look at this: they expect to reach 1 billion annual active consumers within the next two quarters. Can you believe that? People say Alibaba is slowing down, but when you show them a fact like one billion annual active customers, it's crazy.
The second reason is that they're holding an investor day on December 16th and 17th. We look forward to hosting you. I'm sure you still have many questions, and we'll address all of them over the two-day event. What do you think Alibaba will show? It will show what they're capable of and give investors and Wall Street institutions more confidence in the business, because people have forgotten about the business and keep focusing only on China and what China is doing. In my opinion, this conference will bring people back to focusing on the business and what they provide: semiconductors, cloud computing, all that good infrastructure stuff. The investor day is going to be huge for Alibaba in my opinion. Wait for December 16th and 17th. I'll do a breakdown of what they present.
Look at this. People are going to be scared, but China frees up 188 billion for banks. China's central bank said on Monday it would cut the reserve requirement ratio, the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve. It's the second such move this year, releasing 1.2 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to boost slowing economic growth. Remember, one of the reasons Alibaba said growth slowed was China's economy. China isn't printing as much money as the US is. Why do you think the US is still able to thrive while China is cutting back? Anyway, if banks don't have to hold as much in reserves, they'll release that money to consumers. Consumers will borrow more, which means they'll spend more. Chinese citizens love to spend, and they love to upgrade to high-end products, which Taobao and Tmall provide in abundance. So China is trying to get economic growth back up to 6, 9, or 10 percent. Imagine if that happens, with Alibaba at the forefront, since it dominates about 40% of the e-commerce market. When people think e-commerce, they think Alibaba. That's a huge amount of growth. And this just happened on December 6th, yesterday. There's so much potential for Alibaba, and so many reasons to be bullish once the listing overhang is gone and maybe China and the US regroup and talk things through. There's so much potential here.
So guys, tell me what you think about these four, or three, reasons why I think Alibaba has a lot of potential and a lot of room to grow.
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