저자: AdamFeather · 외국인
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영상 결론: 연준의 MBS 대량 보유와 금리 인상 여파로 미국 주택시장은 장기간 둔화·유동성 저하가 이어질 가능성이 크며, 주택가격 하락 전망이 우세하다. 마이클 배리의 트윗 인용: 연준이 팬데믹 이후 MBS 보유를 약 1조 달러 늘렸고, 긴축(QT)에도 아직 MBS를 줄이지 않았다는 점을 지적. 주택시장 현황: 높은 금리로 기존주택 판매는 전년 대비 14% 이상 감소, 7월에는 약 6% 하락, 2022년 7월 마지막 주 모기지 수요는 전년 동기 대비 18% 낮음. 250,000달러 미만 주택 판매 감소폭이 가장 큼. 금리 부담 예시: 50만 달러 대출 기준 금리 3%일 때 월 약 2,108달러, 6%일 때 약 2,997달러, 9%일 때 약 4,023달러로 금리 상승 시 상환액이 크게 늘어남. 부실 우려: 저신용·무소득 확인 대출 기반 증권(BBB 등급 포함)의 연체율이 1~4%에서 8%로 오르면 대규모 손실 가능성, CDO 재포장 문제 언급. 연준 역할: 2008년 위기 대응 방식과 2020년 팬데믹 대응으로 MBS를 대량 매입해 모기지 금리를 낮췄으며, 매입 축소 시 스프레드와 모기지 금리가 함께 오를 것으로 봄. 전문가 전망: 찰스 슈왑은 MBS 스프레드 확대와 모기지 금리 상승을 예상. 로버트 실러는 2024~2025년 주택가격 약 10% 하락을 예측(CME 주택선물 데이터 기반). 메건 그린은 민간 매수 감소로 자금 축소, 인플레이션 완화 및 주택거래 감소 가능성을 언급. 리스크: 연준 대차대조표 축소가 느리고, 정부 지출과 차입은 연준이 통제할 수 없어 구조적 문제가 지속될 수 있음.
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michael bury explains why the 2022 u.s housing bubble will not pop there were probably junior analysts that were given the task of reviewing these issues these documents it's practically impossible to turn on the news without reading headlines describing the imminent collapse in house prices some say will happen in 2023 others in 2026 but few doubt that the era of pandemic house price rallies is over in a tweet published last month by michael bury which believe it or not the big short investor deleted he explained how the federal reserve had increased its holdings of mortgage-backed securities since the onset of the pandemic quite a rally given quantitative tightening right no the fed has not yet reduced its mortgage-backed securities holdings which have increased since the start of the quarter beginning the first of june higher rates inhibit refinancing so that's not happening they knew this right the sheer size of these holdings can be seen by looking at the red area in this chart bowie is absolutely correct it has gone up since may 2020 by around a trillion dollars not down bowie isn't the only one who has noticed this according to an article in livemint.com distortions to the u.s housing market caused by the federal reserve could last for years with interest rates hovering around five percent existing home sales are down more than fourteen percent from last year declining almost six percent in july with mortgage demand eighteen percent lower in the last week of july 2022 than during the same week in 2021 at the higher end of real estate sales a small uptick in rate leads to a giant increase in overall interest payments during the term of the loan about a half a million dollar house let's just say your loan is 500 000 and you bought it two years ago and you got a nice three percent rate your payment would be roughly two thousand one hundred and eight dollars now if you buy a house which roughly today the rates around six percent the same five hundred thousand dollar loan at six percent is and ninety seven 2997 that's nearly nine hundred dollars higher now if you were to buy the same five hundred thousand dollar loan at nine percent watch what happens here the payment becomes four thousand twenty three dollars it doubles in payment from three percent same loan amount same house everything's the same one was three percent it was twenty one hundred dollars a month the other one is nine percent it's four thousand dollars a month how many americans can go from twenty one hundred dollars a month to 4 000 a month some potential buyers are sitting on the sidelines until rates or prices drop while sellers are hoping that the market picks up again so that they can sell for a higher price or at the very least stop having to slash prices still further some pundits however are even referring to the collapse of u.s home sales as a free-fall phenomenon the homes whose sale numbers dropped the most were priced under 250 000 as rising mortgage interest rates and energy bills pushed monthly home payments to levels unaffordable for many low earners on fixed incomes why does the federal reserve even own mortgage-backed securities in the first place the reason the fed owns mortgage-backed securities goes back to the financial crisis of 2008 when the fed was trying to prevent the mortgage market from collapsing during the crisis every financial institution in the world had some exposure to the u.s housing system those institutions had no interest in buying more housing bonds in that environment and without a supply of capital the fed stepped in as a buyer in effect of last resort it ended up buying a trillion dollars worth of mortgage bonds in the process pumping that much money into the economy and it kept buying them for several years until 2015 as the chart reveals during 2010 the federal reserve made a temporary decision to cut back on its purchase of these bonds this was 12 years ago interestingly this led to reports at that time describing how the housing crisis would worsen as a result and inflation would increase in 2022 it's unlikely that from where we are right now with interest rates that mortgage rates will fall to the levels seen during the pandemic they only dropped so low in the first place thanks to extraordinary market manipulation carried out by the federal reserve house prices measured by the case-shiller index increased 30 between march 2020 and december 2021 which was a steeper rise than took place in the lead up to the housing bubble of 2008 the two main reasons behind this were one many people moved during the pandemic and two the 30-year mortgage rate was 2.65 in spring 2021 so if you took out a mortgage earlier than this when rates were higher it made sense to refinance in the spring of 2020 with everybody ordered to stay at home you must stay at home the new rules will go into effect friday at midnight trouble was afoot if jobless or worthless households suddenly were left unable to pay their mortgages both during lockdown and after restrictions were lifted so the federal reserve in its desperation to avoid an economic collapse reached immediately for the 2008 playbook it cut rates to zero and brought back quantitative easing printing unimaginable volumes of currency in buying long-term government bonds and mortgage-backed securities this is your basic mortgage bond now obviously if you're buying these you can make more money but they're a little risky sometimes they fail chris somewhere along the line these bees and double bees went from a little risky to dog [ __ ] where's the trash i'm talking rock bottom fico scores no income verification adjustable rates dog [ __ ] the default rates are already up from one to four percent fellas and if they rise to eight percent and they will a lot of these triple b's are going to zero too you're saying that at eight percent the bonds fail and we are already at four percent that's right if they go to eight it's armageddon yeah that's right how come nobody's talking about this no one is paying attention because the banks are too busy getting paid obscene fees to sell these bonds let me put it this way i'm standing in front of a burning house and i'm offering you fire insurance on it how can these underlying bonds be as bad as you say it wouldn't be legal nobody knows what's in them nobody knows what's in the bonds i've seen some that are 65 aaa rated that i know for a fact are filled with 95 subprime [ __ ] with ficos below 550.
get the [ __ ] out of here you want me to really blow your mind when the market deems a bond too risky to buy what do you think we do with it take a guess i don't know you tell me all right you think we just warehouse it on the books no we just repackage it with a bunch of other [ __ ] that didn't sell and put it into a cdo institutions treat these cdos like they're as solid as treasury bonds and they're going to zero no it can't be right there there are 500 billion in housing bonds so last year alone the ratings agencies the banks the [ __ ] government you're saying they're all asleep at the wheel yeah my old apartment's long on this stuff they call me chicken little they call me bubble boy a's zero b zero double b's zero triple b's zero and then that happens what is that that's america's housing market thank you most residential mortgages are securitized by fannie mae or freddie mac in the usa and resold in something called an agency mbs in 2020 this mortgage-backed security market was in trouble and the fed was even more aggressive than it was in 2008 by becoming the only buyer of these securities its holdings of agency mbs increased by 1.3 trillion dollars between 2020 and 2022 as we've shown in the chart the fed now holds more than 40 percent of the total outstanding amount of agency mbs or nearly half the market these actions were one big reason why rates were able to fall so low u.s mortgage rates are based on the 10-year bond rate plus a premium for extra risk that risk premium is determined largely in the mbs market based on the liquidity and rate risk that investors take on meaning that it can fluctuate over time the spread spike to the start of the pandemic possibly due to risks such as unemployment and job losses but then as the fed kept on buying mortgage-backed securities it fell to almost zero and the housing market exploded the spread then started to rise again in june 2021 near the end of quantitative easing and it rose again when the fed slowed down its purchases in autumn 2021 before stopping those purchases entirely in early 2022 the spread is now higher than it was before the pandemic buying mortgage-backed securities may have made sense to the federal reserve in spring 2020 but why they didn't start tapering for 18 months even as the housing market already was clearly overheating was never explained then and remains unexplained now whether quantitative easing actually helps the american economy remains a divisive topic among economists federal reserve economists insist that it does help but what else are they going to say would they ever admit the truth if it achieved nothing of course not no the central banks are now trapped and they know that stopping quantitative easing is tricky because they are the only ones who are buying government debt since there's a collapse in demand for sovereign debt worldwide the main reason for that of course is that governments never pay anything back they simply borrow endlessly until everything collapses the whole model has folded in on itself and this is something that the news media and central banks seldom say publicly but back to our topic of discussion data suggests that when the fed buys mortgage-backed securities it brings down the mbs spreads and the mortgage rate so when it sells the opposite should happen mbs spreads and the mortgage rate should rise together and this is what brings us back to michael bury's comment the problem with higher rates is that fewer people will refinance or move so the gargantuan fed owned mbs portfolio won't shrink back down as fast as the federal reserve might anticipate even as it contemplates further rounds of interest rate rises between now and the end of 2022 according to a may 2022 press release the fed will start selling some of its mortgage-backed securities if that is the case charles schwab expects that the mbs spread will grow bigger and the odds are so will the mortgage rates of average american citizens who haven't already locked in a fixed rate term so between rising rates and a slowing housing market fewer people will be able to afford to move as a result the housing market may still be a lot slower and a lot less liquid for a very long time it is possible that bowie is calling the federal reserve out here with this tweet on its failure to stick to its own plans between 2009 and 2014 mostly the federal reserve was adding holdings to its balance sheet both treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in 2017 the fed started letting some of its mortgage bonds expire but in 2020 the pandemic happened and that was when the federal reserve went back again to buying mortgage bonds the goal once again was to put cash back into the economy it was apparently to make sure that borrowers were able to borrow and that property valuations would still be stable and it was essentially to help avoid a great financial crisis and now the federal reserve is back to letting its existing mortgage bonds expire so that it gradually owns fewer and fewer of those bonds and if the federal reserve isn't buying more of these mortgage bonds then a private sector actor would need to step in in order to maintain all of the mortgages out there according to megan green that is who she is chief economist at the crawl institute when private investors buy those mortgage bonds that pulls cash out of the overall economy then there is less capital generally sloshing around in the system that should slow demand down and reduce house prices that in theory should take some of the upward pressures off inflation what this should mean is that inflation should slow down but in the process there will be fewer house sales fewer house purchases and that would tend to align with robert schiller's prediction based on data from the chicago mercantile exchange real estate futures market that housing values will decline by around 10 by 2024 to 2025 and we already see that happening but in the meantime the federal reserve is doing little to rid itself of his nes portfolio so much like previous tweets in which burry has called the federal reserve corrupt useless and incompetent he appears to be pointing out the less than salient nature of some of their policy choices the problem however is that the federal reserve cannot stop the government from spending money it can't rain in government spending or borrowing and even if the government printed its own currency without restraint on spending problems of this nature will always be likely to make an appearance
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