저자: JeremyGrantham—영상출연자미상,소개대상인물 · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 제러미 그랜섬(GMO 공동창업자)을 소개하며, 그가 현재 시장을 대형 버블로 보고 머지않아 붕괴가 올 것이라 경고한다는 내용이다. 그랜섬은 평균회귀 철학과 장기 관점의 역발상 투자로 알려져 있으며, 일본 버블(1980년대 말), 닷컴 버블, 2000년대 중반 주택 버블을 피한 사례가 언급된다. 현재 평가 지표로 실러 PE(CAPE)는 약 38로 역사적 평균 17의 두 배 이상, 버핏 지표(시가총액/GDP)는 약 200%로 평균 100%의 두 배라고 설명된다. 두 지표 모두 주식시장이 과도하게 고평가됐음을 시사한다고 한다. 그랜섬은 값싼 돈, 연준의 저금리와 대규모 유동성 공급, 도덕적 해이, 패시브 투자 확산과 대형주 쏠림, 암호화폐·밈주식·SPAC·NFT 등 투기 열풍을 버블의 원인으로 든다. 붕괴 촉발 요인으로는 연준 등 중앙은행의 정책 전환, 인플레이션 급등 또는 디플레이션, 지정학적 충격이나 자연재해, 기술적 장애나 사이버 공격, 신뢰 상실 등이 제시된다. 영상 자체는 특정 종목에 대한 매수·매도 추천이나 구체적 목표가를 제시하지 않으며, 구독·좋아요를 요청하는 내용으로 마무리된다. (영상 내 원자막 기준으로 2021년 8월 지표 수치가 인용되며, 영상 게시일은 2023년 9월이다.)
다듬은 글
super bubbles can really wipe you out like 1929 and that's where we are now do you want to know the stock market and the economy do you want to avoid losing money and make fortune by avoiding market bubbles then watch this video Until the End because we will tell you about Jeremy Grantham the legendary investor who is betting that we're headed for another crash that will change our generation so who was Jeremy Grantham and why should we listen to him Jeremy Grantham is a British investor who co-founded GMO loc a boston-based asset management firm with over 65 billion dollars in asset under management as of December 2020.
he is also a philanthropist who has donated hundreds of millions of dollars to various causes related to climate change Grantham is known for his contrarian and long-term approach to investing he follows a philosophy called reversion to the mean which means that he believes that all asset classes in markets will eventually return to their historical average he uses historical data and Analysis to identify when markets are overvalued or undervalued and then takes position according he has been very successful as he has avoided some of the biggest Market crashes in the history by spotting the signs of Bubbles and getting out before they burst for example he avoided investing in Japanese equities and real estate in the late 1980s during the peak of the Japanese asset and price bubble which collapsed in early 1990s and result in a lost decade for Japan's economy he also avoided Technology stock during the internet bubble for the late 1990s which burst in 2000 and wiped out trillions of dollars off market value he limited his exposure to the housing bubble in the mid-2000s which burst in 2007 and triggered the global financial crisis he has also been a very vocal about his views on the market and the economy writing newsletters and giving interviews where he shares his insights and predictions he has warned about the dangers of climate change and environmental degradation for years arguing that they pose existential threats to Humanities and civilization he has also been critical of various governmental response answers to the global financial crisis from 2007 and 2010 saying that they have created moral hazards increasing equities in the lead necessary for forms so what does he think about the current state of the market and the economy well he thinks we are in a massive bubble bound to pop sooner or later he thinks that this is one of the most extreme bubble he has ever seen in his career he bases his opinion on several indicators to measure market valuations and sentiments one is the Schiller PE ratio the cyclically adjusted prize to earnings or Cape ratio this ratio compares the current price of his talk or an index with its average earnings over the past 10 years adjusted for inflation it needs to smooth out short-term fluctuation and earnings and capture long-term trends the higher the ratio the more expensive the stock or index is relative to its earning history the lower the ratio the cheaper it is the historical average of this ratio for the S and P 500 Index is around 17.
as of August 2021 it was around 38 meaning it was more than twice as high as this historical average this implies that stocks are extremely overvalued by this measure another indicator that Grantham looks at as the buffet indicator which compares the total market capitalization of all publicly traded companies in the US with the US's gross domestic product GDP this ratio measure is how big the stock market is relative to the size of the economy it is named after Warren Buffett who once said that it is probably the best single measure of where valuation stands at any given moment the higher the ratio the more expensive the stock market is relative to the economy the lower the ratio the cheaper it is the historical average of this ratio for the Us is around 100 as of August 2021 it was around 200 percent twice as high as its historical beltverage this implies that the stock market is extremely overvalued by this measure Grantham also looks at other indicators such as the price to sales ratio the price to bulk ratio the dividend yield and the profit margin to assess market valuations and sentiments to Gorge Market psychology and mood he also considers qualitative factors such as investors behaviors media coverage and public opinion he says all these indicators point to the same conclusion that we are in a bubble detached from reality and unsustainable he says this bubble has been fueled by cheap money excessive speculations and irrational exuberance he blames the Federal Reserve and the other Central Bank for keeping interest rates artificially low and pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system true quantitative easing and other stimulus measures he says that these policies have created a moral hazard where investors feel they can take on more risk and leverage without facing any consequences because they back the central banks to bail them out if things go wrong he also blames the rise of the passive investing where investors buy index funds and exchange traded funds ET apps that tracks the performance of a basket of stocks or bonds without paying much attention to their underlying fundamentals or valuations he says this has created a herd mentality where investors unthinkingly follow the market trends and momentum without doing any research or analysis he says this has led to a concentration of capital in a few large companies that dominate the indexes such as Apple Microsoft Amazon Google and Facebook he also blames the emergence of new form of speculation such as cryptocurrencies meme stocks spacs special purpose acquisition companies nfps non-fungible tokens and Robinhood Traders he says these are signs of speculative frenzy where investors chase after quick profits and high returns without caring about the rest of fundamentals he says these are signs of a market Mania where investors lose touch with reality and rationality he says that there are several potential triggers for a crash that could be devastating for investors and the economy these triggers includes a change of entire policy by the Federal Reserved or other central banks is surge in inflation or deflation a geopolitical shot or natural disaster a technical glitch or a Cyber attack and a loss of confidence or change in sentence if any of these events occurs they could create uncertainty panic and Chaos in the market leaving to a mass Exodus for example a change in momentary policy by the Federal Reserve or other central banks could affect the interest rate the money supply and the exchange rate which could impact assets prices the borrowing costs and the trade blows a surge in inflation or depletion could erode the purchasing power of consumers and businesses and distort the relative prices of goods and services we hope you found this video helpful and informative if you did please hit the like button and share it with your friends and family and if you want to see more videos like this please subscribe to our Channel Channel and hit the notification Bell to get notified with new uploads thank you for watching and we will see you in the next video
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