저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
그랜텀은 현재 시장이 과열 상태이며 금리인하 기대는 시장을 떠받치려는 무리한 시도라고 본다. 과거 1929·2000·2007년 금리인하 후 버블이 붕괴했다는 점을 근거로 제시한다. 투기적 주식이 먼저 하락했고 본격적 조정(2단계 폭락)이 남아 있다고 경고한다. 특히 주택버블 붕괴가 폴리크라이시스를 촉발해 2008년보다 큰 경기침체를 낳을 수 있다고 본다. 캐나다 주택가격 12% 하락을 예시로 든다. 지정학 리스크(러-우 전쟁), 기업부채, 대선 주기에 따른 약세 구간도 언급한다. 장기 투자자에게 경계와 대안 자산 탐색을 권한다.
다듬은 글
Jeremy Grantham this crash will change a generation Grantham Dives deep into the warning signs he sees brewing in the market he'll explain why this crash could be unlike anything we've seen before and how it could reshape the world for a generation are you worried about your financial future wondering how to protect yourself from the coming storm whether you are an investor an economist or just someone who wants to understand what's coming next this video is a mustat Jeremy Grantham a figure who embodies the Spirit of Cassandra the mythical profit cursed to utter accurate but perpetually disbelieved warnings Jeremy Grantham isn't your average investor this British Economist and co-founder of GMO LLC an American Investment Management company has cultivated a hawk-like eyee for financial markets for over half a century his track record speaks volumes Grandam accur predicted the bursting of the Japanese acid bubble in the late 1980s the dotom bubbles collapse in the late 1990s and perhaps most notably the US housing bubble that ignited the 2008 financial crisis these pression Cults solidified his reputation as a financial Cassandra whose dire warnings are often met with skepticism But ultimately proven correct Grantham stands in stark contrast to the current prevailing sentiment of bullish enthusiasm in the market he argues that this very enthusiasm fueled by recent economic Trends is misplaced and could lead to a significant correction in the form of an interest rate cut in the coming months this seemingly positive maneuver Grantham argues could be a desperate attempt to prop up a market teetering on the brink of a major collapse while headlines often emphasize the immediate triggers for Market downturns ranom delves deeper highlighting the underlying vulnerabilities that contribute to these crisis he emphasizes the unprecedented nature of the current situation the cascading effects of global events like pandemics geopolitical conflicts and resource scarcity haven't been fully factored into Market valuations furthermore Grantham points out a historical pattern periods of excessive Market optimism often characterized by high valuations and unsustainable levels of Leverage tend to preced Major Corrections the current market exhibits these same worrying signs suggesting a potential bubble ride for bursting while an interest rate cut might initially appear like a Boone for the market driving prices upwards a closer look at historical reveals a more complex truth to understand the potential consequences of this move we must delve into the four major economic bubbles that plugged the United States in the last century 1929 1974 2000 and 2007 in three of these instances 1929 2000 and 2007 interest rate Cuts were implemented these Cuts did indeed lead to a temporary upward Market swing however this seemingly positive development map c a far more Sinister reality negative economic fundamentals the market surges were unsustainable bubbles ultimately leading to devastating crashes these historical examples starkly illustrate the dangers of relying solely on interest rate cuts to prop up a market with underlying weaknesses the sole outlier in this pattern is 1974 here a significant Market rise occurred after a period of decline seemingly coinciding with the First Federal Reserve raid cut however it's crucial not to let the single instance overshadow the larger Trend the disastrous consequences of the 2000 and 2007 bubbles both preceded by raid cuts are a stark reminder of the potential pitfalls furthermore gram highlights a critical investor Behavior a tendency to ignore historical downfalls and maintain a bullish Outlook this misplaced optimism often leads to significant losses investors must be wary of this cognitive bias and approach the market with a healthy dose of skepticism especially when faced with seemingly positive news like a r cut grantham's message is clear the current financial crisis is not over he warns of a potential Phase 2 stock market crash looming on the horizon however he doesn't leave investors completely in the dark according to an article he wrote for GMO there are still alternative assets offering attractive returns and value propositions by understanding the historical context of interest rate cuts and acknowledging the potential for a market correction investors can navigate the current economic climate with greater awareness taking heed of grantham's warning and exploring alternative investment options can help investors mitigate potential risks and position themselves for a more secure financial future Jeremy Grantham offers a cautious Outlook in the market acknowledging progress but warning of further challenges ahead well the first and easiest leg of the double burst he predicted a year ago seems to be unfolding with speculative stocks taking the brunt of the initial decline gram believes the real complexities are yet to come current valuations though reduced remain above historical averages however history suggests these valuations could overshoot on the downside as economic fundamentals deoy rate this outcome is highly likely but the exact timing and severity of the next decline are shrouded in uncertainty the Ever Changing Global landscape throws a wrench into precise predictions several factors could potentially delay or even pause the Beer Market the changing political climate with a new presidential cycle on the horizon the unexpected strength of the labor market China's economic reopening and a possible subsiding of inflation however the key factor for the next 12 to 18 months according to Grantham lies in the ongoing health of corporate fundamentals a significant debt variation here could trigger the the next market decline Grantham advises long-term investors to remain Vigilant on several fronts interest rate changes pose a Potential Threat and a downturn in the global property Market could have serious repercussions for the broader economy Additionally the ongoing crisis between Russia and Ukraine casts a long shadow of uncertainty the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine casts a long and uncertain Shadow over the global economy while the full impact remains unclear the immediate concept consequences are already evident in the form of disrupted Supply chains particularly for essential Commodities like food and energy this disruption disproportionately affects developing nations surrounding the conflict Zone creating economic and financial vulnerability investors by Nature are averse to uncertainty and with good reason uncertainty often precedes negative outcomes leading to the chilling term poly crisis the simultaneous occurrence of multiple catastrophic events Jeremy Grantham warns that even a single event spiraling out of control could trigger a severe Global recession potentially dwarfing the devastation of the 2008 financial crisis one potential Catalyst according to Grandam is a bursting housing bubble unlike the recent decline in equities a real estate correction would likely be much more severe and prolonged unlike stocks real estate doesn't readily adjust to changing market conditions this characteristic makes it a lagging indicator meaning its decline often follows a broader economic slowdown furthermore real estate is intricately linked to other sectors particularly construction and related Industries a real estate market downturn would have a domino effect triggering widespread economic weakness Grantham identifies the middle class as particularly vulnerable and many rely on the value of their homes as a key component of their retirement plans a decline in housing prices could severely impact their fin Financial Security this threat isn't merely theoretical Australia and Canada previously considered to have stable real estate markets are already experiencing a decline in housing prices this trend serves as a stark warning of the potential domino effect a global housing collapse could trigger grantham's warning of a poly crisis potentially triggered by a bursting housing bubble underscores the need for heightened awareness investors and policy makers alike must remain Vigilant and prepare for the possib ility of a severe economic downturn a 12% drop in Canadian housing prices over the past year reported by Reuters paints a worrying picture and Grantham suggests similar declines could plug other overvalued markets he delves even deeper factoring in the recurring influence of presidential Cycles on market performance historically as Grantham points out the 6 months between October and the second year and April of the third year in a presidential cycle have yielded meager returns compared to the rest of the the cycle his warnings coming from a seasoned investor like himself serve as a valuable reminder for us to remain cautious and explore alternative strategies during these challenging Economic Times hope you like the video then do like share and subscribe to our Channel
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