저자: RayDalio추정,소속미상 · 외국인
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Ray Dalio의 'bubble gauge'로 시장을 점검한 내용을 다룬다. 전체 시장은 버블 특성이 제한적이나, Magnificent 7 등 대형 기술주에 과열 신호가 있다고 본다. 선도구매(forward buying)·자본지출 지표는 38퍼센타일로 중간 수준이며 과도한 낙관은 아니다. 2024년 큰 조정 가능성에 경계를 촉구하며, 분산투자와 헤지 등 리스크 관리를 제안한다. 단, 자막 기준 정확한 수치 예측은 불확실하다고 언급된다.
다듬은 글
for next year are you optimistic about the global economy or pessimistic pessimistic pessimistic are we on the brink of a financial meltdown Ray Delio warns of a Sharp decline in stock prices is it time to cash out or is this just another disaster prediction let's get deep into it the well-known investor Ray Delio uses a tool known as a bubble gauge sounds interesting right one of the biggest investment firms in the world Bridgewater Associates was founded by Financial whiz Ray doio beginning with his modest two-bedroom New York apartment Ray Doo's groundbreaking economic theories like the all- weather strategy and his principles for work and life have revolutionized the way what people think about investing being well known for a smart study of global markets Delio is a go-to expert on financial difficulty because he frequently offers insights into economic Trends and Hazards now Ray doio is introducing a tool named bubble gauge to determine the stock market situation you might be wondering how this is even imposs to determine whether the stock market is becoming too bloated similar to a bubble that could burst based on a few questions he uses this gauge to examine several market indicators and determine whether things are heating up too much and he can determine whether the market is headed towards a dangerous position where prices could abruptly collapse just by looking at variables including how high prices are how many new buyers are entering the market and whether individuals are unduly enthusiastic this gauge is designed around six distinct parameters that when taken as a whole Aid in evaluating the general bubble-like features of the market or certain Market niches it's interesting to note that in Dio's opinion a subset of The Magnificent 7even Tech businesses suggests more bubbly conditions even when the overall Market may not show bubble characteristics despite the stability of the broader Market these companies which control a large portion of the tech industry are probably displaying inflated price levels and other bubble like characteristics in short Ray Delio refers to to the word bubble to mention the level of the crash in the stock market so what is it all about it functions similarly to a checklist questioning whether there is a spike in new investors whether future expectations are too high and whether stock prices are extremely high it also looks for broad optimism accessible learning and businesses holding on to profits for the future Dalia wants to determine which markets are most likely to Crash by measuring these variables according to Ray Delio's bubble gauge there appears to be a limited bubble inside the tech sector but the broader Market does not seem to be in one however a specific group of large Tech businesses commonly known as The Magnificent 7 exhibit evidence of minor warning signs in the stock market but nothing too serious Giants such as Tesla Netflix Facebook Microsoft Amazon Apple and Google have seen significant gains in their Market valuations several factors are taken into account by Delia's assessment method such as price about conventional measurements like earnings growth forecasts and widespread Market involvement in such price Rises many of these metrics are noticeably elevated for these tech companies especially when it comes to their high price to earnings ratios and speculative investor behavior that predicts ongoing significant growth stock markets often experience price validity but Ray Delio's cautious predictions May induce anxiety about the future isn't it witnessing a stock market bubble burst is similar to watching a balloon burst from Great Heights investors often Drive stock prices well above what company's real profitability can support this isn't just simply optimism it's Euphoria which equities are purchased on the assumption that prices will continue to rise rather than for their actual value but gradually reality sets in just like gravity does the market becomes aware of something which might be anything from a sudden shift in interest rates to an unexpected economic report or just a general wait a minute reaction all of a sudden people are rushing to sell their inflated stocks prices collapse ruining fortunes overnight and causing chaos in the market what's the real reason behind all of this the frequent arrival of new investors into the market is another important indicator the fear of losing out on something can drive these newcomers to participate in riskier investing practices which can intensify the validity of the market easy credit availability is also important since it can cause asset prices to rise as more Capital seeks out the same Investments when borrowing money for stock Investments become way too simple additionally a company's inventory buildup which results from stockpiling in expectation of future growth May indicate an overconfidence in the market the situation raises the possibility that businesses are overestimating future demand which could result in over evaluations Delio concludes by referring to the extent of the central bank's involvement in the economy overlay supportive policies such as reduced interest rates and asset buyback plans may temporarily keep the markets up but May postpone essential Corrections thus Paving the way for a more catastrophic crash when reality does set in these signs come together to create Delio's bubble gauge which he uses to forecast Market movements and possible downturns the market as a whole isn't booming but Tech warning signs point to caution with the predicted forecasts of an unexpected Market slump in 2024 investors should proceed with caution the tech industry's strength might suggest future difficulties requiring caution to prevent potentially severe drops all in stock prices the degree to which purchasers are making extraordinarily long-term forward purchases provides a more nuanced view of Market optimism in markets where the Dynamics of forward purchases are more clear such as Commodities and real estate this measure is very informative extended forward buying in certain industries May indicate expectations for higher prices in the future and indicate that market sentiment is leaning to bullish however the study of forward buying in equities markets need needs to be modified all in order to take Capital expenditures and other factors into account this entails assessing the amount of money that corporations and to a lesser degree governments invest in manufacturing infrastructure and other long-term assets the value of this statistic is currently at the 38 percentile which suggests that a head purchasing and capital spending activity is a rather moderate level this level implies that in contrast to other indications of possible bubbliness there is less optimism in market for forecasts a cautious strategy is highlighted by such a moderate percentile ranking which may indicate a balanced assessment of future market conditions rather than an undul optimistic one is it necessary to fear at this point though according to rayo's study the stock market in 20124 could see a big correction of the bubble indications that are currently in place continue to warn of impending danger this situation can lead to a significant decline in asset values and even more significant economic difficulties investors are at a loss all in these circumstances and must decide how to protect their Investments all from future volatility however What specifically could set off such a decline the complex interplay between different economic data investor behavior and world events frequently impacts market dynamics a significant Market correction may result from these bubble indicators which include overevaluation excessive speculative investment and unrealistic growth expectations it strongly suggests that investors proceed with caution adopting a diversified portfolio is a wise course of action all in addition to Distributing risk throughout several Industries and asset classes diversification puts investors in a position to perhaps minimize losses if some markets decline While others Hold Steady additionally taking into account hedging techniques like options or short positions could provide additional protection against declines and Market movements by taking these precautions you can minimize potential losses and maintain a balance approach to investing while navigating the uncertainty of 2024 and beyond for investors ralo's views on possible bubble risks in the market are an invaluable analytical tool investors can examine a range of indicators to evaluate the sustainability and health of Market valuations by using their bubble gauge although Delio's analysis highlights possible bubble characteristics there is a great deal of unclear in predicting the precise movement and intensity of a market Fall it's difficult to predict when these bubbles will pop and what effect they might have on the world markets because of this uncertainty what approaches might investors take on when things are uncertain well tello's approach helps investors stay alert as market conditions change keeping an eye out for indications of overvaluation and speculative Behavior diversifying one's investing profile appears to be a particularly successful tactic in this situation and investors entire portfolio might be more resistant to risk and the possible effects of a market downturn when they are Diversified over a variety of asset classes Industries and Geographic areas furthermore it's critical to keep a longterm view while short-term Market swings can be concerning investors can weather Market volatility without hastily adopting choices that could eventually go against their financial objectives you know if they have a long-term perspective and that's all about it if you like this video please give us a thumbs up and if you like more updates subscribe to our Channel don't forget to click on the Bell icon so as 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