저자: 미상 · 외국인
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영상은 2024년 전망에 대한 글로벌 금융 CEO·투자자들의 비관적 발언을 모은 내용이다. 달리오는 지정학적 긴장과 재정적자, 고금리로 인해 경제를 비관하며 스태그플레이션 가능성을 경고했다. 제인 프레이저는 이스라엘-가자 전쟁 이후 낙관하기 어렵다고 했고, 래리 핑크는 고금리 지속과 연착륙 불가를 예측했다. 윈터스는 고금리와 강한 달러가 비미국 차입국에 부담이라고 했다. 달리오 펀드는 금·비상관 자산 배분을 강조하고 현금 보유를 비판했다. 영상 자체가 과거 시점(2024년 초) 발언 모음이며 자산별 가격 예측은 명확하지 않다.
다듬은 글
even with billions to spare nobody enjoys losing money the possibility of a bare Market which is defined as an extended decline in stock values of at least 20% over 2 months or longer is what causes even the world's wealthiest investors to lose sleep at night let's see what makes them so pessimistic about the global economy in 2024 the current geopolitical tensions are soaring us budget deficit and high interest rates according to the top Executives of major Wall Street Banks and Global investment managers with trillions of doar under management might further damage the already flagging global economy Bridgewater associat LP founder Ray Delio said he is pessimistic about the global economy next year in comments eord in by City Group incorporations chief executive officer Jan frasa at the latest edition of the future investment initiative Summit in Riyad if you take the time Horizon the monetary policies that we are going to see will have greater effects on the world it's difficult to be op optimistic about that delu said the upcoming US elections will be about irreconcilable differences to do with wealth and power he added he declared we will be in good shape if we can maintain the peace and if we can have a wealthy competitive environment without having a war with each other the global economy already impacted by persistent inflation and high borrowing rates is facing additional uncertainty as a result of the Israel Gaza War which has escalated into a significant humanitarian disaster the CEO of City Group Jane Fraser stated that given the current situation it was hard not to be pessimistic it's extremely depressing given the context of the events that have transpired since the terrorist attack in Israel and its aftermath Mr Fraser remarked the head of the Black Rock the biggest Asset Management in the world Larry thinkink predicted that interest rates will remain high and that there won't be a hard or soft Landing for the US economy in 2019 Miss Fink declared the amount of fiscal stimulus that is just entering the economy is very inflationary the amount Borrowed by the federal government of the United States to pay for its operational cost is known as the national debt and it reached $33.04 trillion last month Jerome pel the chairman of the US Federal Reserve said this week that the bank May raise interest rates in the future it if officials continue to observe robust economic growth but they are likely to keep them unchanged at the remaining in November to prevent price increases from sending the economy into recession the fat has raised interest rates 11 times to where they currently stand at at 5.25 to 5.5% David Solomon chairman and CEO of Goldman Sach expressed his uncertainty regarding the m and a market at the moment although he anticipates that activity would increase in step with economic expansion in order to effectively compete people must May forward and continuous consolidation and scaling as the environment becomes more certain Mr Solomon stated according to him efforts to revive growth through fiscal stimulus drove the postc coronavirus spike in m and a actively Europe which was severely impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year would likely have difficulties with medium and short-term development according to HSBC CEO Noel Quinn while a second wave of inflation is possible Europe will manage its inflation in Europe and especially in the US UK which inflation is still out of control he claimed according to him China the second biggest economy in the world is under pressure in the near future as a result of its stimulus related economic correction I'm still very optimistic about the growth opportunities in China in the medium term interest rates that stay higher for longer almost certainly means a stronger dollar for longer according to Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters which is which is not good news for borrows and the direction of the economy in a separate panel discussion he informed the F2 delegates that combination of higher interest rates and a stronger dollar is very tough for any non US economy or country that has borrowed in US Dollars a few Nations have already restructured their de and there are still a few that have been battling it gallantly But as time passes the pressure increases because it is trying to depress economic activity in order to bring inflation down so inevitably we are going to have a slower economic downturn in the US the FED is maintaining High interest rates let's just hope and I believe there is a good case to be made that China will be resurfacing as a growth engine at the moment to somewhat counteract the inescapable slowdown in the US and Europe according to Mr Winters according to him it would be extremely difficult to reduce inflation to the fed's target range of 2% and the regulator would then need to decide if it was worthwhile to slow down the economy he answered you have to consider expense what will need to happen for the percentage to drop from 2.5% to 2% is it necessary to create a recession it might not be worth the effort in order to mitigate the risk billionaires worldwide like r del employ a range of techniques and approaches to safeguard their Fortune such as assembling their portfolios with particular asset allocations that can mitigate the impact of a protracted market decline let's see some top investment tips for the 20 24 recession from billionaire investor R Delio over 47 years R Delo a global macro investor for over 50 years built Bridgewater associate from two bedroom apartment New York City at the largest hedge of fund globally it is not ranked as the fifth most significant private company in the United States by Fortune Magazine uncorrelated assets are despite their technical name just Investments that do not move up or down in tendem with the other asset Club losses in the portfolio when Market sentiment shifts a small allocation to these uncorrelated assets might help preserve a portfolio's value which asset classes are appropriate for this kind of use although alternatives to standard equities and bonds such as cash real estate and commodities might add to a more Diversified portfolio gold is VI regarded as the Undisputed king of uncorrelated assets due to its historical volatility the price of yellow metal frequently rises even during weak markets the price of gold typically does not fluctuate in tandem with the overall stock market the following are a few of the factors that lead billionaires to allocate funds in gold for thousands of years gold has served as a store of wealth a portfolio's volatility can be reduced by gold in certain situations gold can serve as a hedge against inflation when the market goes ay investors traditionally turn gold as a heaven asset along with earlier proponents like Ray Delio David inhon John Paulson and John Tor John's second a new billionaire joined the gold bandwagon to start 2019 the most recent member of the group is Real Estate Investment Trust Pioneer Sam zel when he first purchased gold in January he did so on the grounds that it was a gold heads and that the supply is shrinking due to decline in new mining discoveries it will be interesting to see how many more of the world's Elite investors joined the bandw now that market volatility is back in the picture the fed's Relentless rate hikes severely Cloud the stock market ralu the creator of Bridgewater Associates the largest hedge fund in the world is one of the experts raising the alarm in a June LinkedIn post Del issued a warning that the fed's tightening policies may cause stagflation an economic situation in which there is high inflation but not the strong econom iic growth and employment that typically accompany it over time the FED will probably map out a moderate path that results in stf flation additionally Greg Jensen co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater started to bloom Park earlier this week that the fed's aggressive position hasn't yet been fully priced in let's assume asset markets decline at a rate of roughly 20% to 25% overall he forecasts here are some of the large asset as at Delio's headge Fund in case you are unsure of what to do in light of this dire forecast if you are considering hiding your excess cash beneath the mattress reconsider in a recent CNBC interview Ral the founder of Bridgewater Associates the largest hedge fund in the world stated cash is not a safe place to invest it will be taxed by inflation the US Consumer Price Index increased by 88.5% in July 2022 compared to the previous year and is currently close to 40e highs however other analysts think that the number which is decades high is still being under reported in either case the purchasing power of consumers is significantly reduced that's all for now thanks for watching if you enjoyed this video and found it informative don't forget to hit that like button below and and if you want to stay updated with more great content like this make 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