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2025년 전망: 트럼프 정책은 성장·인플레 양면적이며 관세·중국 디커플링·재정적자가 인플레·금리 상승 리스크. 유럽은 잠재성장률 1% 미만으로 구조적 약세. 달러는 펀더멘털상 강세 가능성이 있으나 정책적으로 약세 유도(마러라고 합의) 가능성 언급. 비트코인은 통화가 아닌 투기자산이며 인플레 헤지가 아니고 주식과 고상관, 규제 완화 시 버블·붕괴 위험. 가장 낙관하는 곳은 미국 주식시장.
다듬은 글
nor rabini of rabini macro Associates looking ahead to the new year and writing this some of Trump's policies will increase growth and reduce inflation While others could be stagflationary so the impact on growth inflation and on markets depends on how much of the former versus the latter noral joins us now for more noral wonderful to see you sir great seeing you how difficult does it make it to look ahead to next year with any real Clarity to come up with some kind of Outlook when things are so difficult uh there's a lot of polic and certainty U as I pointed out some of the economic policy of trump increase over time growth reduce inflation being overall Pro business keeping tax rates on Capital and labor low uh deregulating the economy and things like increasing the production of fossil fuels and pushing down the prices of energy probably also this dodge initiative over time increase economic efficiency and so on so those are the positives and over time they could increase growth they could reduce inflation but we know there are some of other policy we don't know how much they going to be implemented they will increase inflation and potentially be stationary in my view tariffs are inflationary protection is the risk of a economic war with China first draconia restriction to migration if not the mass deportation if we have unfunded fiscal deficits and the promises imply $8 trillion of deficits over additional over the next 10 years that's going to crowd out growth by increasing interest rates nominal and real and the bond market Gant is going to wake up if you try to disorderly weaken the dollar that could be inflationary and if you interfere with Independence of the FED now I think on the positive side I think there are a number of factors that going to constrain the bad policies one is Market discipline if you follow polic are inflationary then while Market Vigilant are going to wake up Bond are going to go higher the stock market is going to correct and he cares about the bond market he cares about the stock market secondly fed Independence if he follows policies that lead to inflation the FED may not continue to cut rates next year may even raise rates if inflation were to be going higher and also policy choices as you pointed out on one side you have people like Scott basson who want to escalate the escalate on tariffs and others were total trade Hawks on trade and on China like Peter Navaro so it depends on the balance between who's going to be in power let's unpack some of that and pick out tariffs big debate already so far this morning you've heard some of it please weigh in if it's targeted could it be a good thing for the American economy well if it's targeted would say that the impacts on inflation are going to be modest and maybe some of the reassuring that already is occurring is going to continue and there be actually pressure on our trade Partners to say if you don't want tariffs you have to bring more investment semiconductors Autos EVS you name it to the United States so that's the escalate in order to deescalate but I would say the higher those tariff become the more there's an impact on import prices the more there's an impact on inflation and the more there is global fragmentation there's also the risk of course of trade Wars of our trade partn retaliating against United States if that occurs the impact on growth is going to be more negative the impact of inflation is going to be higher depends on the size of these tariffs if it's Navaro types of uh policies on trade is St inflationary if it's escalate de escalate maybe the impact inflation is modest and the negative impact on growth is also modest so some people are arguing that we're in this wave of deglobalization that basically reverses some of the disinflation forces of the three decades following really the mid 80s I'm wondering whether that's actually true whether that's what we're seeing because there still is quite a bit of trade it's just going different routes and frankly you could see that overproduction from places like China are going to lower prices in certain places even if they don't in the US if their walls up in other words are we overestimating the inflationary impact on a dramatic level of a lot of these tariffs well the impact of high tariffs on the United States would be inflationary but if you think about the impact on growth and inflation rest of the world will be disinflationary because if there is a shock to the demand for the exports of Europe Asia China then there'll be excess Supply growth is weaken in those parts of the world and that leads to disinflation rest of the world so the impact on the US of high tariff is inflationary the impact on the rest of the world is this inflationary because access fly you used to be called Dr Doom are you reti wearing that mantle I I always said I'm not Dr Doom I'm Dr realist uh there are plenty of upside in helic growth and by the way some of them I think they're more secular I think the impact of technological innovation implied the potential growth in the US by the end of the decade could be close to 3% in the fact we already have seen for the last couple of years growth of 2.5 to 28% with inflation falling is sign that maybe productive growth is increasing and potential is increasing and we can grow faster we're having lower inflation so I'm not Dr Doom well when it comes to tariffs just to go back to this idea of the Personnel we know what Jameson Greer as well thinks about China in a hearing it to Congress he had talked about strategic decoupling do you expect that over the next four years between Beijing and Washington uh yes I do I think that one of the biggest risk is not just tariff in general but a broader economic war against China if Leist listen to the long list of complaints of the Trump Administration they say China has been fiding on free riding on international trading system tariff non-tariff barriers government procurement policies FDI policies intellectual property rights and of course Fantan and lots of other things and also geopolitically there may be an attempt to try to contain the rise of China so the biggest risk is not just tariff on China but how much the overall policy for China is going to be confrontational and if they feel that we're trying to contain the rise they could become quite aggressive themselves well from page of the f today is talking about these four government back authorities that are telling local chip companies that you can no longer buy silicone from the some the United States they're no longer safe or reliable are we already in this moment you're describing well certainly in anything to do with Hightech we've started already in the B Biden Administration to be in a process of decoupling restriction to exports both of semiconductor and semiconductor equipment restriction to anything that's related with AI and high technology under Biden was a narrow and high fences and stuff that was supposed to be critical so the risking I think that in the case of trump Administration we may move from the risking with China to decoupling with China there something much more uh how to say severe does Europe need to pick a side uh they'll be in a very very tough position because U geopolitically Europeans are close to the United States NATO and so on but they do a lot of trade and investment with China uh you know under the Biden Administration was easier because there was a compromise within the gt7 about the risking as opposed to decoupling if us goes towards decoupling and says European have to follow us otherwise there are consequences not just on trade but also on NATO security and you name it then I think Europe is already weak it be been a tougher fault how much worse could things get for the Europeans we've been saying through this morning that France is ungovernable at the moment which means it can't deliver reforms and you know in Europe things have to get worse before ultimately they find Solutions how much worse is it to get well things are really pretty bad already in Europe I think that potential growth is below 1% in Europe growth Europe is going to be in the Euro zone less than 1% next year so and structural reform are not going to occur anytime soon uh there's a fragmentation between these 27 countries some of them want more integration some of them W less at the core of Europe German uh Germany and France are going to politically unstable so I don't see either the Lea report or the drug report for more integration for a common market for more productivity and competiveness being implemented so it looks pretty dark for Europe right now which is the reason why I'm surprised that so many people come in and they say it's priced in we don't really see a path out of here we don't necessarily see an economic engine or the political will or capability to really counter it at what point are we facing off with a potential dollar shock and I ask this because yes the euro is likely to stay around here a week and further but what if it actually weakens dramatically as the ECB is forced to cut r and that Divergence widens well there are many good reasons why the dollar may continue to strengthen uh one is of course tariff if they reduce the trade deficit is going to strengthen two Trump had said I want to have actually the dollar at the center of the global Reserve System and therefore that implies you want strong dollar than a weaker dollar relative growth differential relative monetary policies the fact that us is innovating and capital is flowing into the US capital markets and the stock market all impli that the dollar over time should become stronger the Euro and other currencies should become weaker the problem however is that Trump says a strong dollar has led to deindustrialization to American Carnage people free riding on us to having large trade deficit and we want at some point a weaker dollar the fundamentals imply a stronger dollar but policy that may be an attempt eventually maybe in the second half of the administration to find an agreement on currency maybe to say either you accept 10% tar or you accept a 10% depreciation of the dollar I would not rule out there'll be some big maral Lago agreement this you know this effects agreement are always in a resort you know Bon Woods Plaza you know L and so on so marago Accord is something that they got to think about not in the first two years but down the line they're going to say to the trading partners you don't want tariffs you have to do other things for us noral you've had a big move in Bitcoin over the last month or so had a big move over the last several years have you rethought the way you think about what's happening here um not really I mean people talk about Bitcoin being a cryptocurrency like the other ones but they're not really currencies uh they're not the unit of account they're not a scalable means of payment they're not a stable store value they're not the single numer uh Bitcoin in the past went to 17 down then to 16 now is above 100 you could have another 50% correction so it's a speculative asset like M stocks spars and others highly volatile many people are going to it but now take El Salvador they force everybody to use Bitcoin as legal tender and less one than 1% of all transactions are occurring in Bitcoin so I don't think it's going to ever become a currency but it's going to be a speculative asset one thing that dollar is depreciated against is Bitcoin and I think this is where I would see some separation between what's happening with mean coins and mean stocks and what is happening with Bitcoin there seems to be a preference there are Market participants who believe that this is a place to be if you're worried about the depreciation of the US dollar and a fiscal trajectory of the United States of America do you see a case for it there not really because actually when the Fed was essentially Rising rates and inflation was higher Bitcoin was falling like in 22 as there was the stock market correction and now the stocks are going higher and the FED is easing and inflation has fallen Bitcoin is going higher again so historical has not been a hedge against inflation actually looks like it's highly Corr positive with stocks a better relative to the equity market so it's not a traditional like hedge like gold that is in periods of time of inflation rising or the basement or worries about the dollarization so it's something to me looks like speculative asset is highly correlated with Equity so it's not a hedge against inflation you say uh sort of parallel uh tracks to meme stocks and some of the other eforia that we've seen at the same time there seems to be something more concrete behind this you mentioned gold and we are seeing that rally in gold and tandem because of what John is talking about that store of value outside of the US dollar to protect against some sort of loss of fiscal dominance do you see with a more institutionalized structure endorsed by a presidential Administration there being a case for at least a crypt based store of value that could offset some of the risks of volatility in the dollar and the potential loss on the margins of fiscal dominance down the road um I'm not sure because if you're worried about inflation the basement of fiat currency or even the dollarization there are plenty of other assets that provide a good hedge short-term treasuries tapes oil Commodities gold precious metals so it's not as if there is not other Alternatives and as I pointed out in the last few years when inflation was higher actually Bitcoin was falling and when inflation is Fallen Bitcoin is going higher so it doesn't look like a has been actually negatively correlated with inflation so it is a speculative asset for some people is a store of value but if you want to hge yourself against inflation I think there spectrum of variety of other assets that are backed actually by real uh income or something store of value that are a better hedge against some of the RIS that people worry about but given the change of tone in Washington do you think there could be retail adoption at any point uh yeah and there's already already been retail adoption but my my wor is actually that the regulation on crypto might become looser like there were before and then you have another speculative run you have another sets of scams like FTX SPF and so on and then you get another bust so the risk is we're going to go towards very little regulation we know there are lots of players in this space that are quite shady and the lack of Regulation actually leads to a bigger bubble and a bigger bus down the line now you a long time just want to finish up with something positive looking at to 2025 favorite region right now favorite economy the place you're most optimistic about for next year which one uh it's a bit consensus but I think the United States still is going to outperform both in terms of economic growth and Equity markets yes seems to be the one place to be hear it repeatedly don't we the United States it keeps coming back to America it feels like Tina this is the Tina trade there is no alternative at a time where essentially growth is concentrated in the world's biggest economy and maybe it's trickling out maybe it's not but nonetheless also have yield here norel it's good to see you sir thanks for catching up with us thank you noral rabini there of rabini macro Associates
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