저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
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루비니와 Atlas Capital의 Reza Bundy가 새 ETF(Atlas)를 소개. 트럼프 2기 관세·재정적자·이민 제한 등으로 인플레이션 상승과 저성장(스태그플레이션) 위험이 커져 장기 국채 중심 60/40 분산이 약해진다고 주장. 장기 국채 비중을 줄이고 단기 국채·TIPS·금·상품 등으로 구성, 월 1회 정도 리밸런싱. 금은 중앙은행 분산과 위기 헤지로 긍정적, 비트코인은 변동성과 화폐 기능 부족으로 회의적.
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[ noral Rini he is the CEO of rubini macro Associates and we're also joined by Atlas Capital team CEO razab Bundy who of course just launched this fund that we're talking about atlas of course is a fintech company that rubini co-founded it's great to have the both of you with us and norel I want to start with you since you are a first-time ETF issuer and something we like to ask the debuts in the ETF industry is why now what brought you to this rapper now when it comes to why Implement your strategy here well why now is because we live in a world where after covid the risk of stationary shocks that lead to higher inflation and lower economic growth are becoming more severe and these types of STL problems are going to be more serious during it Trump Administration if you think about the impact of tariff protectionism and uh trade Wars the impact of restriction to migration on the supply of labor uh deficits and tax cuts that are unfunded attempt to weaken the dollar attempt to interfere with the FED getting out of the Paris Accord and worsening global climate change all these factors economic theory would suggest they would lead to a higher inflation lower economic growth and therefore traditional safe asset that had you against those risk like long duration fix income don't do well in that type of environment so you need a different type of asset location TR yourself against righty of economic risk inflation the basement currency the dollarization geopolitical environmental risks thank you for answering that clearly it's tied to your economic Outlook and we can dig into that a little bit later on but raaza I want to bring you into the conversation as well um what is why the ETF rapper why is that the best format for uh really articulating this view well the origin of the atlas program U was out of the National Security uh landscape back in 2017 when we were evaluating some of the risks that were kind of upcoming um in our view geopolitical risk climate risks asymmetric risks sociopolitical risks and we felt that it was necessary to build um a more resilient US Treasury alternative and the Trump Administration actually came up with an idea of a gold back treasury instrument which we took upon ourselves to commercialize because the treasury Department couldn't do so themselves it would cannibalize their existing market and they didn't have enough gold to really create much of an issuance see the origin of this story came about by trying to create that treasury alternative that could withstand the risks that we were for forecasting and so therefore we thought the ETF rapper would be the best solution especially because we dynamically allocate these um assets uh as we see Market signals coming in whether growth or inflation risks um so the UTF was just an ideal um liquid and very well regulated well structured instrument all right norel this is a question for you um we talk about inflation right in 2022 inflation went up fed rais rates and that caused treasuries to go down right a lot of bonds went down with stocks that year the 60 and the 4 both fell you have 50% treasuries in here and I did notice a triple leverage be ETF in there um can you talk about managing that kind of a situation where inflation causes rates to go up bonds to go down how do you protect this treasury exposure point is that we are going away in our portfolio from long duration fixed income and treasuries because as you pointed out when there are economic shocks that are inflationary long B years go higher the price Falls but also Equity price like 2022 go down so the traditional safe asset is long duration treasury doesn't work in a situation which inflation is rising that's why in our portfolio of Treasury we stay completely away from long-term treasuries and all our allocation of Treasury is short-term treasuries and tips that actually do well in times where inflation is higher and you have those types of economic shocks so the point is the traditional safe asset that is negatively correlated with equities in a 6040 allocation doesn't do well in world of higher inflation like we saw in 2022 23 even this year therefore you need an alternative an alternative combines things that do well when inflation is higher shortterm treasury keep Commodities and environmentally sustainable rates norel that's really interesting and just to uh draw a bow on that point it's sounds like your position basically for a curve steepener that you have all this exposure to the short end of the treasury curve but POS but position for the long end yields to go higher Yeah in our view of the world over time all the inflationary shock that they described before implied that long bond yields are going to be higher both in nominal terms and in real terms as we're going to have tariff migration restriction Independence of the fan challenged and budget deficit run away therefore the traditional safe asset doesn't do well you know in 2022 bond yields went from 1% to three and a half and 10 year treasury lost more than S&P S&P fell 15% while 10 treasury lost price by 20% so in a world in which average inflation might be 5% rather than 2% bond yields may be closer to 7 8% rather than the current four plus and therefore $ 20 trillion of treasuries that the traditional safe asset we subject to massive price risk 30 40% losses that's the kind of world thinking not high inflation not hyperinflation but even a rising inflation from two to 5 six has a massive damaging effect for the traditional long duration fixed income asset so this will be an actively managed fund uh norel how often do you anticipate making changes to their portfolio uh not not very often uh this takes a longterm view that actually that forces that's stationary so first of all is a imp partly a quantitive approach we look at states of the world in terms of growth and inflation and the terms and location there's an element of it that is slightly discretionary but we think about optimizing maybe once a month not more often than that uh this is a question for uh raaza um when you think about the stock market um it seems like Trump wants stocks up he he he brags about the stock market a lot um and if they go down you think he would just bend over backwards to make stocks go back up um in in your opinion do you see that not happening this second term or uh do you think that this ETF is needed just in case the stock market you know kind of goes its own Direction well there's a tremendous amount of risks um offshore that we need to look at um this Le Israeli um for example uh truce agreement uh may just create more risk against the a war against the Iranians and the israelies which obviously has effects on the oil supply that comes out of the Persian Gulf these kind of risks uh do significantly impact the stock market especially as that oil goes to China and there's obviously some uh other risks associated with the South China Sea and so we don't see these events being positive for the stock market and we see this instrument and this strument is designed to do so doing well at times such as this um so um that's why we launched it at this time frame and Reza I have another question for you I thought an interesting detail was that uh this ETF was launched through Goldman Sachs ETF accelerator program it's not quite a white label but for uh those listening who maybe aren't familiar with the concept basically uh Goldman saxs helped you do the back office stuff as I believe it or understand it to get this ETF to the masses can you talk us through why you went with that setup for example rather than hiring out an ETF team yeah in 2018 when we came off the U the back end of working through um the alternative treasury instrument idea through the U the Trump Administration and the National Security think tank we were working through the Goldman Sachs team took it upon themselves to help us divise this program uh as a more resilient US Treasury instrument um they built an index initially we built an annuity with them and we just felt their team was really strong uh they're really focused on National Security they're focused on resiliency they've got a very strong relationship with Washington and they've got a fantastic team at the ETF accelerator Lisa mantel Steve Sachs these are uh really really strong teams that we rely on to uh to execute these trades and we think that there's more work to be done under underneath the illiquid portion of this ETF at a time and a place when the scale allows it so the platform is very strong but also the connectivity to the other parts of Goldman and their natural inclination to be more focused on National Security and resiliency and economic security matters made them a natural choice we're we're very proud to be working with them and norel um you know when you think about this ETF the big market for ETFs is advisors financial advisers are like 70% of ETF users what does this replace for a typical 6040 adviser is this going into the bond portion or the equity or maybe some other uh alternative portion they might have no it's a substitute for the bond portion because as I pointed out the traditional defense V is long-term treasury doesn't work in a world in which inflation is going to be gradually higher bu is going to be higher price are going to be lower for those bonds at the time where there could be correction in equity markets the whole point of 6040 is based on a negative correlation between bond prices and Equity prices rkon growth Equity Dell bond prices fall risk off recession bond prices go higher the yield goes down equities do worse but that works only if inflation is low and stable in instead in a world in which gradually inflation goes higher you lose on the equity portion of your portfolio and you lose also on the bond portion of your portfolio so when you lose on the bond portion of your portfolio you want to have an asset is actually truly defensive when interest rates are higher because either there is higher inflation or bigger deficit than that so it's an alternative to the bond part of your portfolio the defensive part of your portfolio we're talking about this ETF that you have launched which is um a way to kind of guard against some of the economic Outlook uh problems that you foresee uh given the new uh government that we're going to have starting next year you mentioned stack flation earlier and how you are worried about that scenario based on what you've heard from the president-elect so far when it comes to C cabinet picks um initial tariff threats can you quantify the risk of stagflation over the next four years are we talking about 20% odds are we talking about 70% odds well some of the economic policies of trump may lead to higher economic growth being pro business keeping tax rates low deregulating the economy but unfortunately many of the other the policies are going to have an implication of higher inflation and lower economic growth the first thing he has already announced is going to be uh tariff against Mexico Canada and China and that's only the beginning he said we might have up to 20% tar on all our trade Partners up to 60% against China he wants to have massive deportation of people in the last few years the increase in migration has kept the lead on wage growth has increased the labor supply has economic growth so definitely Mass deportation is stationary he wants not only to make all those tax cuts permanent but he made other promises no taxes on tips on overtime on Social Security on income earn abroad and so on and so on this estimate that these things may add to the deficit by8 trillion too much demand inflationary uh he might want to weaken the dollar that's going to be inflationary it may interfere with the dependence of the feds getting out of the Paris Accords going to make climate change much worse increase food prices and things of that sort so if you look at this list of policies and others all of them have the impact that over time inflation will be higher growth is going to be lower that's a standard analysis of what's going to be implication of this policy so we have to worry about the world in which overall over the next few years inflation is going to be gradually higher economic growth could be lower and therefore you have to find a hedge against a world in which bond yields on the long side may be much higher than 4% it might go towards 6 s even 8% in a scenario where inflation goes from two through three four five so that's the kind of concerns I have in the kind of tail risk inflation the basement of fat currency potential dollarization debts become unsustainable climate change geopolitical risk that fragment the world and lead to less growth and more inflation those are the kind of things we start to have to worry about and hedge against it's interesting norel a lot of things you just said or what a bitcoiner would say as to why you should buy Bitcoin there's now the Bitcoin ETFs they're uh over a hundred billion dollar clearly a big hit there's talk that it could be a strategic Reserve you have gold in the portfolio is there anything that could move you to add Bitcoin to uh your ETF in to help accomplish some of these goals you know the Bitcoin is highly volatile it can go up by 10% one day and down 10 15% another day if you want to have a stable store of value you would not put Bitcoin into your portfolio the kind of assets we're actually thinking about are all assets that do well when you have lower growth and you have higher inflation whether it's tips shortterm treasuries gold is a hedge against inflation the basement the dollarization geopolitics financial crisis some exposure to our Commodities that going to do well in a world of inflation and of climate change environmentally sustainable rat so it's a diversified portfolio of assets that historically have done well in these types of tail risk I'm skeptical for a lots of reasons about uh cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin because they're not currencies they're not a unit of account they're not a scale of means of payment they're not the stable store of value and if you want weth preservation rather than high volatility you want to stay away from those types of assets it's really interesting uh to hear those comments because uh I mean as Eric pointed out some of the things you're saying really resonate with a lot of the crypto Community but uh it sounds like that volatility is just keeping you away here but I mean the argument has can be made that uh you take a look at gold and it's not exactly a reliable hedge of inflation I mean it goes back and forth over the past four years I know we're close to record highs right now but when it comes to a stable store of value are you sure that you found it in Gold well gold has the benefit that has a a variety of hedging characteristics usually when inflation is higher it does well when there is risk of De basement of your currency does well in a world in which central banks are moving away from because of the dollarization because we weaponized the dollar for National Security and foreign policy reasons gold goes higher part of the reason why gold is going to higher 40% this year is because central banks of our arrival diversifying away when there's a financial crisis and your money is not even safe in a bank gold does well so it's not a perfect asset can go up and down is one element of a portfolio where you're hedging against a variety of tail risk and from that point of view is a better store of value than cryptocurrencies that are based on out their vaporware all right noral rabini always with the sharp insights noral rabini reini macro Associates thank you so much for joining us today
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