저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 근본가치가 없는 버블이며 하락 가능성이 크다는 비관적 견해가 주를 이룬다. 비트코인 근본가치 및 버블 주장 로우비니는 비트코인에 근본가치가 없고 거대한 버블이 해체되는 과정이라고 주장한다. 희망에 기대는 롱 포지션은 나쁜 전략이라고 평가한다. 가격 레벨 및 하락 우려 5,950 목표가 이탈 가능성을 언급하며, 6,000 레벨 하회 시 우려가 커진다고 밝힌다. 현재 버블 붕괴 후 바닥 형성 과정의 3~4단계라고 진단한다. 결제 수단 및 거래량 관점 화폐 가치는 거래 건수와 규모에 달려 있다고 설명한다. 상점들의 비트코인 결제 수용 확대로 거래량이 1년 내 증가할 것이라는 전망도 함께 언급된다. 현재 실사용 비중은 매우 낮다고 본다. 비트코인캐시 및 포트폴리오 발언 출연자 중 한 명은 2018년 12월 이후 상거래 용도로는 비트코인캐시가 가장 유력하다고 주장한다. 단일 코인에 전액 투자하지 말라고 조언하며, 본인 포트폴리오는 비트코인캐시 위주라고 밝힌다. 기관투자자 유입 전망 인프라 구축과 수탁·규제 문제 해결 후 기관 자금이 3~6개월 내 유입될 것으로 예상한다. 기관 진입 시 상승 랠리가 나올 수 있다고 본다. 변동성이 주식 수준으로 낮아지면 투자자 유입이 늘 것이라는 견해도 있다. 규제 및 경쟁력 우려 미국이 아시아 대비 채택에서 뒤처지고 있다는 우려가 제기된다. 증권성 판단 등 규제 명확화가 가장 큰 과제라고 본다. 대부분의 코인은 증권이 아니므로 SEC식 규제 대상이 아니어야 한다는 의견이 다수다.
다듬은 글
why do I want to be short because it's pick one it has no fundamental value we are in the middle of this great unraveling of this colossal bubble and I think that people are gonna the only thing that they have going form that their long is hope and Jackie we know that hope is a horrible strategy him saying basically Bitcoin goes to zero is crazy you know the target of 5950 if we do break that 6,000 level I I'm definitely concerned about that then we go down and we push even farther through that target that would be a little concerning to me but I think we're in inning three or four here of a bonding process from the bubble that Scott talked about that pop and bursting came back down when you look at the value of what a currency means it's the number of transactions that take place and the size of transaction and when we have overstock.com calm accepting Bitcoin when you have places like Subway Starbucks coming online accepting Bitcoin McDonald's may be doing that the number of transactions will be increasing over the next year or so close to lower reaches old hogs and lumber today they're not even 50 my own wallet that use crypto today yeah I don't think that's gonna be problem this coin is no longer or at least last December it wasn't usable for commerce at all the fuse became high the transactions became slow and unreliable and people like myself and everybody else that was trying to actually use it for commerce stopped and switch to something else and that's something else looks most likely to be Bitcoin cash for the most number of people and very very clear that all the adoption in the merchants and all businesses are being built on top of Bitcoin cash at this point so for the future I think Bitcoin cash is the best investment standpoint and but I I don't recommend anybody don't put all of your investments in the cryptocurrency and open all your cryptocurrency investment into one single cryptocurrency so what is your what does your crypto portfolio looks like right now Roger I hope more Bitcoin cash than anything else but I have to meet there I have somebody cash them he coined the Monaro sand - BTC as well extreme euphoria in you know remember in December and we got way ahead of ourselves in terms of like this is the same tulip like spike everybody realizes that what I think's happening now is is all this infrastructure is being built for institutional investors to come in to crypto currencies all these lingering issues around how do they manage custody how do they deal with certain SEC regulatory issues and other investment rights issues in the u.s.
those issues are being worked out now and I predict that as institutional money makes its way therefore into the crypto space watch out right it's not gonna take a lot because it's still a relatively new asset class when was the last time planet Earth had a new asset class I can tell you just anecdotally the the institutional herd is starting to move their feet a little bit they've taken a lot longer than I expected I'm a little blue in the face for the holding my breath until they get here but it's starting to happen when you take a look at the volatility I mean the up-and-down movement of the price of Bitcoin we've really seen it comes down last year a year ago that thing was trading twice as much twice as fast up and down as it is now and when you look back to 2016 the level of volatility was actually normalized near that of an investment in the equities market I think if we continue to get that subsided Society and volatility down towards what it's like to trade an equity I think people will get behind Bitcoin and I think you'll see it rally just like it did two years ago you're seeing lots of activity in private markets matter of fact it was a complete bear market in coins a disastrous bear market in coins put in privates you would never have known it was a bull market it's been a bull market and talent and it's also a bull market and institutions building the infrastructure needed for real money investors to start investing in coins and so I think three to six months from now it will be the all-clear sign for people to start you know big institutions and pensions to start investing my greatest concern is that the u.s.
loses competitiveness I mean I've spent the last year flying around the world and I can just tell you the US is already behind I don't think they're fatally behind but we are already behind there's much more adoption going on in Asia what I think is interesting what you're seeing here and what we saw from the coinbase announcement is that they're both struggling with the clarity around the u.s.
rules and we have trouble figuring out what if something is or is not a security so I think right now that's our first challenge is to get some clarity on that because once you figure out if something is or is not a security then you can figure out all the different rules and regulations that apply for us you know we go in a way that I think the entire group at the roundtable today views most of these assets is they're not securities and should not be regulated with the same type of regulation that the SEC brings to the table
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