저자: TomLee · 외국인
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비트코인 강세론 결론: 2019년 크립토 겨울이 끝나고 봄이 왔다는 주장이며, 비트코인은 추가 상승 가능성이 높다는 입장. 온체인 지표와 기술적 지표가 개선되고 있다는 근거. 블록체인 거래량은 2019년 1월 말 전년 대비 플러스로 전환했고, 비트코인은 4월 1일 200일 이동평균선을 돌파했다. 기관 수요 측면에서, OTC 브로커 조사 결과 활동 수준이 60~70% 증가했고 고객 수와 고객당 거래량도 최근 크게 늘었다고 설명. 베네수엘라와 터키 등 통화 불안국의 거래가 온체인 거래량 증가의 약 30%를 차지하며, 미국에서는 여전히 투기적 자산 성격이 강하다는 한계도 언급. 알트코인(이더리움, 리플 등)은 이번 랠리에 뒤처졌지만, 비트코인 상승 후 알트코인 시즌이 올 것이라는 전망. S&P500과 비트코인은 현재 음의 상관관계이나, 연말에 주식 큰 움직임 후 크립토도 따라갈 수 있어 비트코인 14,000달러까지 가능하다는 의견(단, 본인은 예측이라 단정하지 않음). 미국 주식은 2009년 패턴을 템플릿으로 볼 때 2019년 S&P500 3,100 수준이 고려 대상이며, 실적 확대보다는 PER 확장에 의한 상승이라는 진단. 진행자 Brian(CME 비트코인 선물 트레이더)은 5,400~5,500 매수, 5,600 근처 200일선 테스트, 5,300 손절을 제시하며 비트코인 롱 포지션을 취함. 2000년 닷컴 버블 후 바닥 다지기 패턴과 비교하고, 신흥국 통화 약세나 달러 강세가 리스크라고 언급. 핵심 주장: 비트코인 상승 추세 지속, 특히 5,500~7,500 구간 상승 기대.
다듬은 글
let's move on to Bitcoin the cryptocurrency making up for lost ground this year rallying of 50% and one Bitcoin bull says the crypto winter is over and spring has officially sprung Tom Lee a fun Straten Global Advisors joins us on the phone to discuss his view on Bitcoin Tom thanks for joining us on futures now breakdown why you become even more bullish on the cryptocurrency cyma as you know last year was a terrible year for crypto you know a massive bear market and we published a piece this week just huiling there's 11 signs that historically only take place in a bull market so I think the evidence is mounting that there's a bull market but I think the few that really matter are things like on chain blockchain volumes turned positive on a year-over-year basis in late January you know Bitcoin crossed above its 200-day moving average on April 1st it's a big technical hurdle to cover and it hasn't been above it's charging with average for more than 13 months and and we surveyed OTC brokers you know they're really important in terms of how institutional investors trade crypto and universally they've all talked about a 60 to 70 percent increase in activity level the number of clients and the Act trading per client really taking off recently so I think you're seeing signs that fundamentals are improving technicals are improving then now there's real activity by essentially crypto toddlers I understand the technical justification the fact that it's over some key levels but just to your point on fundamentals are we seeing more vendors and merchants start to accept Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies don't we need that to happen in order for investors to say wow I really think that this cryptocurrency could increase in value yeah I think that's really important for that to take place in the US for adoption because there's a really well-established financial system what I think we have to remember is crypto is probably 70% of story outside the US and I think events like Venezuela what's the devaluation of Turkish lira these have actually caused on chained volumes to take off because you know on a local Bitcoin spaces people are saying look I don't trust using you know these local currencies I don't trust the banks I'm gonna start using Bitcoin in and that's what's causing the Hanshin volume period global transactions what percentages venezuela and turkey some of these distressed nations that tear point may be looking to crypto currencies to either get money out of their country what percentage of those countries make up of global cryptocurrency transactions yeah if you perspective just just taking those two countries they're close to thirty percent of the increase in on chained activity so it's meaningful and you know in the u.s.
you know in the u.s. clearly like i think you've said it best you know until crypto is part of the existing financial system and that are used every day it's really going to be primarily an asset of speculation in the u.s. Tom it's anthing in New York you know I'm looking at the other currencies you know like coin and XRP and etherium and those seem to have a lag they haven't participated in this rally does that concern you a little bit about Bitcoin you know it's uh it's it does but it it does but it doesn't because you know if you look at the altcoin we track the correlation between all coins and crypto and typically what happens is that Bitcoin will rally and in correlations while she dropped because as you just point out the all coins aren't tracking this but that that's a set up into what we would call the next altcoin season because all of a sudden people will say well you know bitcoins just made an 80% move and if they're taking some profits they might redeploy that not into USD but they'll actually start to buy the all so so all coin for typically follow once you have a big move in Bitcoin Tom talk to us about the correlation between Bitcoin and the broader market has US stocks trading right around all-time highs helped kripp the cryptocurrency market as well you know IAM is a Bitcoin has a pretty high correlation to e/m equities and it makes sense because you know IAM equities are sort of the riskier end of risky asset the SMP and Bitcoin actually have a negative correlation at the moment so one it's sort of you know bitcoins doing its job to be an uncorrelated asset but one thing to keep mind is whenever the SP has made a big move in yo this year it's two and a half standard deviations I'm just almost always led to a big move in crypto later in the year so I think Bitcoin you know I mean a to a standard iation was the Bitcoin would take it to 14,000 I'm not saying that's where it can go but that's the magnitude of move that would be a catch up and lastly for US equities are trading right around all-time highs now is like above that above its all-time high you know where do we go from here higher or lower oh I think this uh look I I think at 2019 and we've been telling clients 2009 is a really good template because you know into 2019 we had a big credit dislocation we now we have an adjustment by the Fed plus we had sort of a panic waterfall decline in stocks so I think 3,100 is sort of a level people should think about this year which is obviously these new highs for the SMP but it's not because of earnings exploding it's really just that PE s are expanding and anticipating really what 2020 should look like which is that you know a stronger cyclical recovery yeah and a lot of that will have to do with what we learned from earning season Tom thanks so much for making time for us on futures now I appreciate your perspective on crypto currencies on the broader market action that's Tom Lee a fun straddle Advisors and Brian you are trading the CME Bitcoin futures for us tell us what you have yeah I'm looking to buy at the 54 50 level I think it trades up to 5600 tests that 200-day moving average I put a stop down at 5300 I think when you look at Bitcoin which I'm long and granted I have some long puts his protection and sort some calls against that position but when I look at it I think you look at alternative currencies out there and there's the US dollar and strangely enough there's Bitcoin and you look at everywhere else and everybody else is easing monetary policy weakening their currency levels and I think that's starting to drive people into alternative currency that's picked it up another interesting fact I don't know if we can bring a chart and looking at the Nasdaq going all the way back to 2000 but when the Internet bubble crashed and crapped out the same way that Bitcoin did so you basically had a year or two of a bottoming process where Internet stocks were left for dead and the cream of the crop rose to the top the Amazon of the world the Microsoft's of the world came back the same way Bitcoin has come back and the rest of the all coins have been left for dead I think the same thing is starting to occur a bottoming process is starting to occur and people are looking at Bitcoin as a serious means of transacting and usefulness we heard about the OTC market picking up your transactions that's very positive more transactions is better currency so that should drive it higher I think we continue to trend to the upside in Bitcoin Gray's final comment I actually like this trade a lot I love it above the 50 to 75 level the only thing I see is emerging markets that Tom had mentioned if the dollar gets any stronger that hurts those markets and it could possibly hurt Bitcoin but I think that's a little bit down the road so I do like this trade right now because the momentum is on Bitcoin side you
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