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increasingly in recent months there's been this concern do we have a wall of inflation ahead is inflation about to gallop and in that create other side effects like knocking stocks or impacting bond prices or or and let me just say to you that of course there's always variables and there's always risks but my sense is that this story is so widespread that to the extent there's an inflation risk ahead it's much smaller than what people normally think now let me talk about why first off pricing is always competitive secondly the fact is we all know a lot of things that we've seen the fact that the quantity of money in america was grown hugely during covert and also hugely but less so overseas is one that everyone knows from that the velocity or turnover of money has fallen so that we haven't actually seen inflation this is counter to what people would have thought or expected from the way these things were taught decades ago but decades ago they didn't have forms of money or near money that we commonly use today ranging from creating uh the uh i mean i'm not talking about securities trading i'm just talking about buying something off off of paying for it via your mobile device or even you know 50 years ago with credit cards which were very rare the fact is we've always believed that if you increase the quantity of money you get a comparable increase in inflation less any increase that you have in gdp in real production of real goods and services this concept has never been tested against a huge increase in the quantity of money in modern times and my sense is that you can tell that it's false by the fact that inflation pressures are much lower overseas than they are in america but at the same time it's true and it's always been true far longer than you believe far longer than anyone knows i wrote about this in my 1987 book the wall street walls inflation is always and everywhere also global and if one country prints too much money among developed nations relative to the others and you get that inflation effect the one that does too much tends to export its inflation to the ones that happened and that's why i believe that overall inflation pressures ahead are less than people think they are because overseas which is the biggest part of the global economy it's been much less than here in america finally i just want to say that markets are really good and you've heard this from me in so many other ways and so many other things and pre-pricing this in advance there's little that you or i or anyone else knows today about prices of things that isn't already reflected in the price of other things and so we've already seen increased long-term interest rates rise in america and overseas more than i would have expected this year in fear of this inflation but that pricing impact is probably now overdone or fully done because people have had plenty of time the story is widely distributed if this is all the interest rate kick up that you can get out of this story the amount of inflation that's ahead is this much not this much so that's my story and i'm sticking to it and thank you for sticking with this video
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