저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 금융시스템에 유동성 문제가 있다고 주장. 대형은행의 $23B 담보 매도(phantom seller), AI 기업(OpenAI, xAI 등)의 현금 부족, 프라이빗 크레딧(Blue Owl) 및 빅테크 채권 발행 급증, 오라클 CDS 상승을 근거로 제시. 강한 고용지표 → 고금리 장기화 → Warsh 의장 하 금리인하 불발 → 경기침체·AI 버블 붕괴 위험을 경고. 리테일의 저가매수가 기관의 엑시트 유동성이 되고 있다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Folks, we have a problem. There is a clogged toilet in the plumbing of the United States financial system. So, in case you're wondering what it is, in this video, we're going to look at some symptoms of what the problem is, and maybe we'll be able to get to a conclusion of what's wrong with American finance.
Why all of a sudden is Snowflake down 40% from October? You've got private credit funds like Blue Owl Capital with exposure to Meta's data center that are down 50%. Microsoft 28%, Palunteer 38%, Robin Hood down 55, SoFi 41, in it 50, Figma 84, Adobe 60%. Applovin 50%, Dualingo 80, Open 55%, Reddit down 54%.
Why are so many previously loved stocks selling off? Well, at the same time, you've got companies like Axios telling us that retail investors are buying the dip and that dip buying is hitting a record. Novice traders aren't just dip buying, they're staying invested, making them increasingly formidable partners to the suits.
That's great. It's wonderful that we're seeing more people participate in capital markets, but it sucks when you throw money into capital markets and then it evaporates. People don't like that. People think it's rigged. People think it's manipulated. Well, maybe it has something to do with this. How about this?
$23 billion of collateral got, let's just put it this way, flip-flopped on at market open today. Now, initially you might think, ah, 23 billion, like why does this mean anything? This is from BCA research and they found out that a bank that typically has plenty of cash to help fund markets all of a sudden no longer had cash to help fund markets.
Now maybe this is just a short-term oopsy dupsies. Like I said, maybe it's just a, you know, clogged toilet. But there is what they are calling a phantom seller that just stumped $23 billion of short-term collateral and that created some oops dupsies in markets today. Now understand how this works for a moment.
I think the easiest way to really get this and then you're going to see people love it when retail buys the dip because you might be the only ones with money left. Everybody else is swimming naked and it ain't great. But understand just how this works for a moment, okay? When a bank has cash, so when they have cash, they want to make money on that cash and then they want to use it the next day.
But overnight, there are other banks that aren't so fortunate or, you know, lifeurers or big institutions or whatever who need cash just to make sure they can meet their capital requirements or the bills they have to pay or whatever, right? So usually banks with cash say hey I'll lend this to you overnight at you know whatever a rate of 3.7% divided by 360 right so it's just a daily overnight rate but on billions of dollars that can end up being many hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars of profit to lend this money overnight to people who need it well there is a really big bank we don't know what bank it is but apparently there's a really big bank that BCA research says they are usually a cash investor, which means they take the cash, they invest it overnight to people who need cash.
But guess what just happened? That bank is like, "Oh, sorry. Um, we're out of cash. We're now over here with everybody else who needs cash." And they're literally going as far as saying, listen to this dislocation of cash and securities with the large selloff in the cash market yesterday. So, yesterday morning, not this morning, my fault.
Securities change owners. Investors move into cash. Some investors change their securities holdings. Brokers reported that there was a phantom seller. One large bank, that's usually a cash investor, was a seller of over $23 billion of collateral at market open. Banks wanted to back up the market today so rates open higher tomorrow for the long weekend.
Okay, whatever. The conclusion here might not matter so much. The idea there is maybe banks want to dump to squeeze up interest rates so they can make more money over the weekend. But is that the excuse or is this sudden phantom seller a sign of a larger problem that's happening? And I think the larger problem if I had to put sort of my fingers and my taste on this because we analyze this stuff every day in the course member live streams uh even the days I'm not posting publicly we're still doing our course member uh alpha reports and we're putting out information and analysis.
We did a huge deep dive on Walmart. Really important one to watch if you're a course member. Join that at me.com. Uh but we analyze this every day. But one of the things that we're finding broadly is everything changed the day Warsh was announced. Gold and silver topped and this selloff of, oh, you're doing AI.
Oh, this startup's coming along doing this as well. We're going to now sell your stock instead of buying your stock. Everything changed the day WSH was chosen. And nothing changed with artificial intelligence. So what I mean by that is people are just as fearful that artificial intelligence is running dry on money.
You literally have open AI now talking about erotica. In other words, chatbot porn because they're so desperate to raise money from people and get them to pay for OpenAI so then they could turn around and raise money from Soft Bank or other companies, right? They are inside of OpenAI apparently scam altman.
I'm not a big fan of him. Okay. I think they are running on fumes in terms of money. They're getting into AI erotica or chatbot porn and they are firing anybody who stands in their way which is a much nicer thing than what they used to do allegedly to people who said that OpenAI was a group of plagiarizers.
You know, those people died suddenly or at least one person did. Yeah, topic for a different video. But anyway, OpenAI just fired a safety executive who argued she was opposed to the adulton only mode as being harmful to users and feared that OpenAI wouldn't protect against child exploitation. OpenAI said, "You're fired for being a woman and discriminating against a male colleague.
How dare you discriminate against a man?" I think OpenAI is desperate for cash. So, nothing's changed on the OpenAI side. AI needs cash. I mean, look at Elon Musk. Elon Musk has fired fired. They've voluntarily announced their departures on X. That's Elon firing people. Okay. Elon is restructuring XAI in my opinion because all of a sudden he realizes, wow, we burn a billion dollars a month and SpaceX just bought us for an inflated valuation and they make $8 billion EBIDA in a year, which means they actually make less.
So, we're going to supposedly take SpaceX public, but we're going to look like we're losing a bunch of money. So, why don't we just go through and do what we do best? Let's just go fire a bunch of people and keep our margins up cuz AI is burning a lot of money. It's not just me that thinks AI is burning a lot of money.
Nvidia is literally now going to lease a data center funded by $3.8 billion of junk bonds. So in other words, there's this company that put together a bunch of junk bonds and they don't have anybody to lease it. So they go to Nvidia, which is like the borrower of last resort in artificial intelligence.
And now Nvidia is going to lease it. Nvidia's like, "Oh, we'll backs stop your data centers because it's full of Nvidia chips, right?" Okay. Yeah, we'll we'll backs stop that because if we don't, then people are going to stop investing in these data centers and then our numbers are going to go down and that's going to suck.
We don't want our numbers to go down. Now, I don't think I'm being jaded because if you actually look at what you're seeing in uh bond pricing, you're going to see a few things. First of all, the tech sector is exploding as a slice of these tech bond sales. In other words, to keep this data center crap going, we now sit at 11.8% of corporate bonds being exposed to hyperscaler supply.
Back in the dotcom bubble, bond issuance was just 2% of the bubble. Tech issuance as a sector of private sector debt issuance was just 2%. Now we're six times as high and we're not seeing ROI on a broad scale from ROI yet. We already know that. That's old news. But you got to put all this stuff together.
So the artificial intelligence companies are out of money. You've got companies like Amazon, Facebook, and Google that are out of cash. Everybody's trying to raise debt. You've got fears that private credit has too much private like open uh too much exposure to artificial intelligence. So, you've got credit default swaps skyrocketing at companies like Oracle, which is a public company, but also the stocks of companies like, well, private credit issuers like Blue Owl Capital are falling off cliff.
Ernst Young just this morning on Meta is like, "Yeah, we're going to have to disclaim away some of this shoddy accounting we're seeing here at Meta because we don't really agree with this, so we're going to disclaim this away." But last week, everybody's like, "Oh, Kevin, everything's getting better.
Look, uh, CDS's on, uh, uh, you know, Oracle credit default swaps, the the pricing of those has fallen. So that means people want less insurance, right? So that's a good thing. That means maybe there's no bubble, right? Dude, that lasted for like a day or two. And here we are. CDS's are right back at the levels they were before, which is really the highest since we've seen since 2008.
So literally, everybody is out of money. That hasn't changed. What's changed is that now even banks that had a lot of money before are starting to go crap, we too are out of money. But now you have to combine this phantom seller issue with also, you know, this panic at BCA research with an understanding of what's going on with wages.
So we just had a wage report that was phenomenal, a labor report that was supposedly phenomenal. it broad-based will keep the Federal Reserve higher for longer, which is literally the worst thing you want for people who need liquidity because people who want liquidity want lower rates. Private credit wants lower rates.
Bond issuance, they want lower rates. XAI pays like 12% in interest for stupid data center stuff that we have more than enough of. And so at the same time as you have banks and private credit and AI companies that are like bro we desperately need cash, open AI is getting essentially bailed out by you know Soft Bank and other companies like Microsoft and Amazon or Nvidia or whatever.
But they too are raising money. So that issuance is still coming around. Everybody wants lower rates. But then you have a jobs report that tells us that last year we grew by a rate of 15,000 jobs per month. Worst ever since like 2008. on a monthly basis. Now, of course, some of that is because of immigration and maybe we're in a rebound now, but wait a minute.
If our economy were truly broadly expanding, why is it that out of the 136,000 jobs we had yesterday, so imagine this is 136,000 jobs, 123,000 of them, so like most of them were healthcare. And then you had a bunch of negative categories which offset the 33,000 in construction, 5,000 in manufacturing which did finally go positive.
But the whole point of it is higher for longer is probably here to stay. So how are you going to end up getting this WASH uh the promise that you're going to have lower rates? That's the only thing people like about Walsh is that he's going to try to bend the knee and get the you know get confirmed for the job of Fed chair because he's not confirmed yet and then lower rates.
But it's not going to be up to Worsh. It's going to be up to all the other voting members at the Fed and they're going to hold because of hot jobs. And then if we go into a recession because the Fed holds because of hot jobs and then we fall into a recession because the AI bubble pops because rates stay higher for longer.
Fed basically engineers the AI collapse bubble collapse. Then you are not stuck with somebody who wants lower rates. Then everybody else on the board's going to want lower rates. You're stuck with Kevin Worsh who's literally going to be the guy on the Titanic going, "Well, our boat is sinking, but you know what?
This is good. It'll help clean up the Fed's balance sheet. we're all going down with a ship. He's not going to tell you to get on a lifeboat cuz he ain't printing lifeboats. That's at least his reputation. So, what you have is if you really consolidate all of this and just simplify this, you literally have people dashing for anything else that they don't think is going to go down.
You have BCA research saying, "Hey guys, you know what's a good deal right now? Consumer discretionaries." But I think them going overweight on consumer discretionaries is literally them walking into a minefield because if you have a stock market that sells off and then you get layoffs then the consumers will get crushed.
There's no question of that. So really what you have is I think you have a bunch of suits running around panicking behind the scenes right now begging that retail keeps buying the dip for exit liquidity. You are their exit liquidity when you buy the dip. They are panicked because they are out of freaking money.
Now maybe it's just a clogged toilet. Maybe we can get through this crap. But if you start connecting the dots, you'll see it. Strong jobs means higher for longer. Boom. We sell off the last two days. Higher for longer. Why? Because it makes it harder to finance the AI bubble. It makes it harder to finance private credit.
So it makes all of the cracks more visible and it just gets worse and worse over time. That's bad. So now Walsh can't do his job of lowering rates and instead you're stuck with somebody who's not going to save you when and if we go into recession. So it's literally like the double worst case scenario.
You have Worsh who isn't going to be able to do anything now because of jobs. And when you need him, he ain't going to do anything because of his mentality of, well, we need to reform the Fed and we need to shrink the Fed balance sheet, which is fine if you stand for that. You better be all in cash at that point.
But if you're a stock investor, 401k investor, uh you know, you've got a retirement fund or whatever, or you've got employee stock or whatever it is, you don't want to go into a recession and not have the Federal Reserve come bail you out. The whole point of our economy since you know the whole Jackal Island thing uh was really how can the Federal Reserve work to be a counteryclical force.
That's a really fancy way of just saying when the econom is booming we push it down. When the economy is sucking we push it up. Worsh is the guy who's like economyy's sucking good let it fail. So risk premiums go up. People are like damn. Well, in that case, if everybody's out of cash, OpenAI needs to resort to doing porn and Waller or WH isn't going to help us either now because he can't because of everybody else and in the bad he's not going to save us.
Then what do we you know what historical precedent do we have here? Well, if you go back to any kind of global liquidity crisis, what do you have? This is kind of like a global liquidity crisis. Last time we had that was in March of 2020. JPAL bailed us out. 2008 we had it. Who bailed us out? Ben Bernani.
Janet Yellen kept the bailout machine going. So if you have WS, who's gonna bail you out? It's not good. So I I'm not trying to be hyperbolic, but yeah, this is probably an extension of the Japanese carry unwind as well. This isn't trying to be like doomer. It's just you're probably wondering what is going on and why is this happening?
And the answer is people are out of cash. And as they say, when the tide goes out, we'll get to see who's swimming naked. Want more details on my opinion on all this? Join the Meet Kevin membership at meet Kevin.com. I love you all. .
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