저자: Kevin · 외국인
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CPI 발표 전 디플레이션 위험을 강조하며 연준이 결국 돈을 찍어 자산가격이 계속 오를 것이라는 장기 낙관론 제시. 근월 CPI는 낮게 나올 가능성이 있으나 시장 컨센서스(2%)에 대한 반론으로 2.2 예측, 장기적으로 실물자산(부동산·주식) 매수 권유.
다듬은 글
hey so obviously the Bitcoin ETFs have been approved and uh CPI is tomorrow morning which on the meet Kevin Market open live stream channel link down below we already have the link for the CPI live stream we'll be covering together but I I just wanted to have a transparent and um I I ubered home I promise and slightly uh mytide uh conversation with you mostly based on um just sort of a an overall synopsis so I don't know why I'm holding this of what's been going on with consumer prices and producer prices and I have to say we're looking at Kroger Celsius analysis Build-A-Bear Machinery companies companies that are making machines we're looking at Carnival Cruise Lines we're looking at Airbnb lemonade Insurance Nike Micron pellaton uh these these companies I'm mentioning Ulta instacart Costco deflation okay literally Costco deflation is very Restoration Hardware broadcom Oracle American Express these uh Jet Blue these in the last month literally the last 32 is days are the analyses that we've done in the course member live streams and I just want to give you the synopsis here okay look I I understand not everybody wants to be a course member and hang out with me every morning people there there are some some folks and I respect it I get it who watch my channel who are like look I can have my daily dose of Kevin but I can have no more and I get it I know sometimes we can be a little overbearing and by we I just mean I uh but tomorrow is a big day tomorrow is uh CPI January 11th uh 2024 we are going to have to price in drum Powell's activity for January 31st now obviously with this kind of insane event coming up tomorrow we'd be crazy not to offer a coupon code expiring soon on January 31st for the amazing Gold Course link down below or the other courses on building your wealth with bundle codes of the email us at staff atme kevin.com but beyond that now we actually have to talk numbers look listen this is JP Morgan's analysis here and and I just want you to know for a moment that we have still not yet seen the FED wield critical sword we're going to talk about this JP Morgan analysis on screen here we've touched on it a little bit in a market open live stream this morning but I just want to be clear and and I I don't think people understand that I I have this belief this like really really strong belief within myself that I know things are volatile in the market and in the economy but my goal as much as possible is just to be long-term right I think anybody wants that any self-respecting man or woman wants to just be right over the long term right I think what what happened in January of 2022 and how we've set up for the long-term future will end up proving to be right there is a reason I have structured my actively managed ETF in a specific way there's a reason for that and there's also a reason I've made very little changes to it but my belief is that the Federal Reserve very soon is going to wield the sword a flexible average inflation targeting very soon I think that layoffs are going to mount to such a level and GDP growth is going to mount to such a level that the Federal Reserve will really face no choice but to print money yes it's a giant Ponzi scheme listen we're going to drop an interview soon with Lauren Southern okay some people are going to respect that some people are going to get pissed but probably this weekend we are going to drop an interview with Lauren Southern she is uh I again people are going to get mad at me saying this but she's an amazing person uh she like inside and out everything about her uh she's great she's beautiful she's wonderful my Lauren knows this as well okay so this is not a secret laen Southern is basically canceled by the internet she is deemed an alt-right extremist individual who's like white people lives matter or whatever like that kind right like hold the Gay Pride party outside the Muslim Mosque just to cause tension kind of style right so that's inflammatory that's called poke the bear I've done my share of poking the bear but my point is Lauren Southern in person asked me Point Blank and I wanted to share this because I thought it was an important moment so we're say sitting at breakfast she's got one of her friends her employee and her and me says so you know our economies uh and our governments have been propped up by a lot of money printing Kevin and uh you're an econ guy so I want your opinion um I want to buy a house at some point because obviously any self-respecting individual at some point gets sick of renting and I want your opinion you know when is this Ponzi going to collapse because we can't continue to print money like this forever and so my response uh sort of made her jaw drop and that was that uh first of all I agree we are in a bizarre Ponzi where you can literally print money and have people just accept that you just diluted the crap out of them it's the hard reality any libertarian or Austrian Economist right now is like God damn I didn't know I like this annoying guy meet Kevin hell yeah right on yeah I know uh they're right it's a Ponzi but this is where I I lose him I go but it could keep going for 100 years and that's the moment uh Lauren Southern looked at me what yeah uh I think that whether it's the manufacturing of the data which I'm not that jaded I'm very jaded but I'm not that jaded whether it's the manufacturing of the data which again I I I'm not that jaded uh or it's just the reality of of the economic system we Face we are going to go into a state where the Federal Reserve will soon be announcing and I've been saying this for two years you know this you know this if you've been watching the channel and you wanted an economic perspective you know this it literally stands for fate and it is an ironically creepy statement that I should have faith in Jame j po I'm telling you very soon I guarantee it I guarantee it very soon people are going to name their children after Jerome Powell I guarantee it and very soon people are going to make statues of Jerome Powell outside of their houses I guarantee it I guarantee you both of those things guaranteed 100% guaranteed call me in a year hold me to it that's because I think Jerome Powell will be able to orchestrate this soft Landing by turning the money printer on again and keeping the Ponzi going the Ponzi of deflation will actually come upon us TS Lombard people going to get so mad at me when I do this so TS Lombard are uh resident Bears they actually just did a fantastic piece uh they did a fantastic piece and I don't know why I can't find it right now but uh they had a fantastic piece I read this while I was flying back yesterday from Park City Utah boy we missed we missed a snowstorm by about 20 minutes the airport shut down in Salt Lake City last night and we would have been trapped in Salt Lake which honestly wouldn't have been that bad I love Salt Lake uh had we not been able to get out there out of there but TS Lombard yesterday had a piece again I can't find it right now but I have it relatively in memory uh oh actually it's on my phone TS Lombard had a piece uh that um deflation is coming but the way they set it up was very interesting they argued that the markets might be wrong again that was their line and I'm like oh that's that's a juicy headline what do you mean the markets might be wrong again the title of the article is literally is everyone wrong about inflation again I found so I had my iPad in the trunk of the plane okay that sounds really weird but I'm sorry it's true so I had my iPad in the trunk and I'm like dang I guess I only my iPhone so that's why it's not synced over there but anyway TS Lombard our resident Bears they argue that they're two potential realities that right now consensus is that inflation will settle at 2% and the other reality is that 2% will actually either go into substantial deflation or geopolitics will push us into a second wave of inflation and so I thought this story was really interesting because they basically expressed that they're frustrated that consensus is now 2% inflation everybody thinks we're going back to 2% inflation we're going to get flexible average inflation targeting and everything's good everything's going to be just fine oops oops well if that happens and the consensus is indeed 2% what does that mean for stocks well it probably means people pricing rate cuts and rates come down okay fine but but wait if geopolitics push inflation up again we're going to have a problem the Market's going to fall if inflation tomorrow comes in dirty as in hot we're screwed okay right now tomorrow we are expecting 0.
2 on the year-over year uh sorry uh. 2 on the month over month three on the month-over-month core 32 on the month over or the year-over-year and 38 on the year-over-year core and when we zoom into the core month over month we can actually get the perfect average here and find that the average is 0.25 which rounds Up to.
3 so we really want to get 0. 2 to come in low on that that's currently the consensus estimate that's not that's not what JP Morgan thinks JP Morgan has their own estimates which will pull that up as well but my point is if we get a soft read we're going to get a market that starts pricing in more and more rate cuts and the market might not be wrong that's the scary part is the market could be right a capitalistic economy people forget this nobody be very clear about this a capitalistic economy reduces prices what did I say with all those earnings calls that I reached uh what that I mentioned they're all complaining about falling prices if I didn't make it clear then all of them are complaining about prices coming down trying to provide more value to customers without raising prices nobody is screaming we can raise prices right now I do not see a second wave of inflation coming from earnings calls that does not mean that could change that can't change it's entirely possible that that changes entirely possible but it's just not what we're seeing right now so JP Morgan obviously has an estimate they always have an estimate this is not a big deal okay JY Morgan having an estimate is literally like screaming that the pope is Catholic okay duh we know that it's literally like saying the Mormons like uh uh you know Diet Coke so what are their estimates 5% chance of a 4% read that's not going to happen that's not Kevin's estimate 25% chance of a three yeah that is a good shot but I don't think so either 45% chance of a 0.2 to3 okay so if I wanted to be safe I could just tell you right now I think we're going to have a 70% chance of a three I don't think so I don't I don't think so Kevin's consensus estimate okay and so when we say consensus and Kevin in the same sentence it just basically what Kevin's opinion is okay so let's tell you what the market is and then I'm going to write down right here because I want to be held accountable because unlike most people on YouTube and I'm not trying to bash anyone individually I'm just trying to be real unlike most people nobody wants to be wrong okay I don't give a so these are the numbers for tomorrow this is the consensus estimate all right so uh which are the core that's core that's core obviously the bigger ones are year over year okay you ready for my take uh and then we can we can deduce the year-over year from that just by doing math but I actually think we're going to get double twos and just to keep it simple uh I'm going to um just give you those two point 2 point I want you to think like like double twos so 2.2 is my estimate for tomorrow uh it's just based on the earnings calls that we are reading on a daily basis and and I I'm serious in our course member live streams we do these every single day we've done them for over five years okay of course my live streams have been out for a while not only do we the do the companies that we mentioned but many more and it's really fun I mean the Celsius today or or whether it's our Pinterest MasterCard analysis our Aerospace stock Nvidia Intel Uber Walmart deflation uh you know it doesn't matter ubiquity paler you want to see real fundamental analysis it's it's freaking amazing I hope you're there but my point is I don't think we've seen a market yet that actually respects the potential for deflation we are trending towards deflation I think TS Lombard is right we're trending towards deflation as a risk and markets have not priced that in yet and that sets us up for H I'm going to be really clear about this and I don't think people are going to believe me but people are going to think I'm saying this because like I'm biased ah well because I have such exposure to those sectors but it's so simple you need to buy assets buy assets not Financial advice okay buy assets real estate and stocks in 10 years from now when we are facing negative interest rates you're going to go why wasn't there someone on YouTube who said buy assets because they're going to keep this Ponzi going for 100 years and Lauren Southern's jaw dropped going what the hell they're going to keep this Ponzi going for 100 years why wasn't there anyone on social media telling me the Ponzi can keep going everybody's worried about debt and in the second wave of inflation and fiscal irresponsibility why wasn't there a single person telling me it could keep going there was sorry some people are going to be like man this guy's lost it it's unhinged no like I believe so wholeheartedly in what we're doing that when I meet people in person and I explain what I believe is going on in the economy people like Kevin how can we partner with you doesn't mean I'm going to be right but I want to be crystal clear about my opinion I don't want anybody in the future saying Kevin wasn't clear about his opinion we are trending towards deflation not only are we going to Trend towards deflation but the closer we get towards deflation the more the Federal Reserve is going to print money and the Ponzi will keep going so all you Austrian economists who are like this is effed up you are right and all of you keynesians who are like they're going to print money you're also right you're both right the difference is asset prices are going to keep going up in my opinion I could eat those words but at least I have the balls to have an opinion ly Iz t's
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