저자: Mr.FIREDUpWealth · 외국인
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브로드컴은 애플과의 다년 부품 공급 계약 소식과 AI 네트워킹 칩(Jericho 3-AI) 출시로 AI 수혜주로 평가된다. 2022년 매출 332억 달러, 배당수익률 약 2.7%, PER 약 23배로 재무는 탄탄하다. 다만 주가가 415달러에서 692달러로 급등해 과열 구간이며, 애플 매출 의존도(약 20%)와 VMware 인수의 반독점 심사가 리스크다. 진행자는 650~675달러 이하 매수를 선호하며 현 가격에서는 보유 의견이다.
다듬은 글
big news today apple and broadcom now broadcom's been one of my favorite stocks for a while I've owned it since December of 2018 and I've added a couple times along the way so there's lots going on with broadcom not only is this Apple news today big you also have the VMware acquisition which we'll talk about later but most importantly I think that broadcom is under the radar AI stock and the company could benefit substantially from artificial intelligence so we're going to talk about that on this video today I'm also going to show you evaluation tell you my thoughts about the stock overall and we're going to look at a chart so as broadcom stock a buy now or something to add to your watch list let's find out so you can see broadcom's up about 25 percent year-to-date over one year it's up about 32 percent in the last five years it's up over 175 percent current market cap is 290 billion dollars it has a p e ratio around 23.
dividend yield 2.64 so still pretty solid now the 52-week low was 4 15.07 that would have been a strong buy today it's trading at 694 and the 52 Kai was about 699 dollars so here's the announcement from this morning Apple announces multi-billion dollar deal with broadcom for us-made chips so this deal is part of their 2021 commitment Apple's 2021 commitment to invest 430 billion dollars in the US economy so this will include fbar filters and other Wireless connectivity components according to the release these components are different from the 5G modems that are made by Qualcomm and what's interesting about this announcement is usually Apple keeps this kind of hush hush They Don't Really announce these type of Partnerships so there's an assumption there that maybe they got a pricing deal and that part of the negotiation was broadcom could make this public it's hard to say I'm just speculating the company said the deal with broadcom will allow it to invest in critical automation projects and upskilling and apple already supports more than 1100 jobs in broadcom's Fort Collins Colorado manufacturing facility so this is big news today but I think AI is even a bigger story we've covered broadcom several times throughout the past year as a top sock to buy so especially on their dividend stocks to buy every month we release a new video next week we'll have a video that comes out for top growth stocks to buy as well as the video for top dividend stocks to buy before I get into broadcom's AI capabilities of why I think it could be a big play for them I want to provide you a quick overview of the company because there's a lot going on at broadcom so if you look at their 2022 Revenue 33.2 billion dollars in FY 22 that's net revenue and broadcom spent 4.9 billion dollars in r d and FY 22.
17 000 plus patents 22 category leading semiconductor and infrastructure software division so this is not only a semiconductor play but also a software play so if you follow broadcon you know they've made lots of different Acquisitions the one that comes to mind first is CA Technologies in 2018 also symantech in 2019.
so if you look at their revenue by segment for 2022 semiconductors here in the red infrastructure in the blue blue so on the semiconductor Solutions more the hardware side think networking Broadband server storage Wireless industrial on the infrastructure software think Mainframe devops cyber security and more so this is going to be important later when we talk about AI but when you look at the data center hyperscalers the service providers and Enterprise think networking and high performance connectivity and broadcom is really about hybrids so both on-prem as well as the cloud end-to-end solutions for both businesses and customers alike so wireless mobile device connectivity everything from Wi-Fi Bluetooth charging and more so industry I think of factory automation EVs and renewable energy and Automotive in general so the Enterprise solution cyber security identity management payment security lots of things that they do that you might not know about and you can see the revenue and gross margin has been slowly and steadily increasing over the years also been growing the dividends so FY 16 to FY 2023 the compound annual growth rate 38 and broadcom has a strong lead leadership team led by hawk tan president CEO you've probably seen him on TV before so broadcom is well positioned for the future and many of those secular growth trends that we talk about I want to cover AI specifically so broadcom has several different components here but one is called AI Ops so what is AI Ops powered by advances in Ai and ml machine learning Automation and data science applies to the wealth of monitoring data within it AI Ops helps organizations derive actionable insights from application infrastructure Network and user experience monitoring data to deliver Superior digital experiences to customers employees and partners so here are some of the capabilities you think service observability actionable insights intelligent Automation and customizable dashboards and this right here is even bigger for AI in my opinion this is news from April 18th broadcom unveils industry's highest performance fabric for AI networks so this is called Jericho 3 AI so when you think of artificial intelligence you need these huge data centers to program these language models and you need those servers to connect to each other and also to the web so Cloud operators will upgrade AI infrastructure to address the massive growth and bandwidth driven by a new generation of high capacity gpus so they don't build the gpus like Nvidia does but they connect those gpus together so Jericho 3 AI offers high bandwidth low latency and low power choice for networks connecting tens of thousands of gpus revolutionizing the economics of building and maintaining AI clusters for this exciting New Era and this is best to breed when you think of connecting those gpus together more information so broadcom's new networking chip called the Jericho 3ai is designed to connect super computers and features a high performance fabric for artificial intelligence AI environments this is not getting the attention that it deserves and I think probably because it's misunderstood so broadcom has three switch families the high bandwidth Tomahawk switch platform used primarily Within data centers then they have the lower bandwidth Trident platform and this is really more suitable for the edge and then you have the new product series The Jericho line which sits somewhere between the other two and is best suited for lower latency interconnects it has built-in congestion management capabilities for load balancing and minimizing Network congestion this is going to be critical when you think of AI applications generative AI Bard AI chat GPT and so on so we're talking about super computers here and you think about it not just AI when you think of quantum Computing in the future these guys are the leader broadcom is the leader it's going to help connect all those different devices and data centers and supercomputers together this article talks about Nvidia and some of the competitors that are coming up I did call out sustainability as a big focal area and something that they're going to have to watch because gpus are a bit of power Hogs so even though they're very energy efficient compared to older models they make it more and more efficient they still suck a lot of juice but with the Jericho 3A iPad there are saying that the fabric offers something like 40 percent power reduction lowest power and cost Optical interconnect 25 system power reduction against pluggable Optics and this is big so while broadcom is not making gpus right now for AI training and interface we can't forget about the fabric how fast data can move as such a key and critical part of success for this technology is going to be something like Jericho 3ai and broadconf they can offer more efficient lower price products will be very attractive to a number of different companies and this can be a really exciting product for broadcom and another competitor that Nvidia is going to have to be watching out for broadcom is an absolute connectivity Beast of a company definitely looking like a mini Skirmish or mini war of skirmishes is coming on the network side and it makes perfect sense also why reinforcing one of the reasons that Nvidia bought melanox which is essentially to partake in the revenue in and be on the edge of creating training and interface clusters and you've got AWS playing in this field talks about Microsoft talks about Google there's lots going on right now with AI now I think Nvidia is still going to be a player but broadcom the thing is is they're coming after Nvidia in certain areas and you can use Nvidia gpus and still connect all those different gpus and super computers and data centers using broadcom's fabric so two red flags for broadcom's future let's keep this neutral I don't want to be biased either direction even though I own the stock what are some risks here so this was in early May before the news today but it talks about broadcom's relationship with apple apple accounted for 20 of broadcom's Revenue in fiscal 2022.
so this is broadcom's top customer so now Apple's going to be giving them even more money if that goes away that is a risk that's always going to be a risk for any of the suppliers that you own that are related to Apple or any other of those big companies like that so the good news is it looks like apple is continuing to renew those contracts but longer term this could be a risk another risk could be the VMware acquisition now this can be looked at as a pro or a con depending on on how you try to slice it like anything so first what can a combined company with broadcom and VMware delivered to customers so you think of multi-cloud solutions so VMware is going to help out a lot in the software side for broadcom cloud native applications pricing and really just having that one throat to choke so you can work with one vendor for several different areas and of course this Jericho AI deal can relate to that as well so they're really building a solution they're building a stack they already have a stack and they're rounding it out more in cloud and in Data Center and right now the VMware deal is coming under some scrutiny and it might not get passed by antitrust which could be a risk now on the flip side of that they're paying 61 billion dollars to acquire VMware so it's one of those things where if it fell through the stock could actually react positively in the short term that's a lot of extra cash that they don't have to spend now long term I think VMware would be a good play for broadcom and so just yesterday this deal has been extended now to August 26 6 2023 the previous deadline was May 26th so of course CEO Hawk tan thinks the deal is going to get done Regulators stand in the way of that ambition the UK competition and markets Authority has initiated a stage two probe but expects that will conclude in late August the European Union recently extended its provisional date but essentially they're having issues with this acquisition and it might not get approved so of course when you look at analyst price targets they don't mean you should buy us or sell a stock off that information but I like to use them for sentiment so you can see there's 17 ratings rated as a strong buy highest price Target is 775 the lowest price Target is 600 with the average at 700 250.
not much upside from here so next let's look at valuation and also a chart and I'll provide some thoughts for you of where I would buy the stock before I do that ll a reminder Motley Fool doesn't tell me what videos to make which stocks to cover they're a great partner and check those guys out you can all also join us in our private Community Patron and Discord by visiting patreon.com forward slash fired up wealth and so broadcom's low is October 13 2022 at 415 dollars and seven cents the high was just here on May 23rd 698.99 right now according to Fidelity 22.81 p e ratio pays you a 2.71 dividend yield so pretty solid yield it's a mega cap about 285 billion dollars it only has about 1.49 short interest now if you look at the growth metrics for broadcom it's pretty solid you can see EPS growth 57 69 solid numbers across the board let's look at valuation and before we do that free cash flow 16.9 billion dollars price of sales 8.11 price to book 12.14 PEG ratio you want that usually one or less more expensive socks you know often two and three this is at 2 0.75 now with that said this year's estimate for PE is a 16.4 and next year is only a 15.5 so we do chart day every single Wednesday and patreon Discord anytime you're not going to see any yellow because I'm just going to explain it to you here on video and you can see we're recommending this stock and Discord at this 415 to 420 level back in October 2022 and we've done a great job following this stock all the way up the last time we did chart day was a few weeks ago we said wow 605 support you might see 660 Plus on upside so it went from 415 dollars to 621 that's the day we did chart day was 621 now it's trading at 692 dollars now these are fibonaccis so you've got your resistance and support you can see it's above everything just like Nvidia that we talked about yesterday this one's running pretty high not quite as hot as Nvidia but it's running pretty hot so it's really hard to buy when you're up in these levels above the R3 this resistance three so this level here is 667 dollars 665 dollars and generally you want to buy you know in this green area or this red area and you want to sell when it's up in the blue and red up here this is a Fibonacci retracement so this like several different semiconductor stocks could start to see some compression here you could see it consolidate and maybe trade a little bit lower now the problem when you have these really strong bull runs you know one thing I want to make sure I announce semiconductors generally lead the market both ways and you're definitely seeing that here you saw semiconductors get absolutely hammered last year go to levels that you probably didn't think you'd see and now they're running a lot hotter than you probably imagined they would in the amount of time they've done it you're talking about here October again this is another what seven months or something it's gone from 415 dollars to 692 bucks almost 700 bucks and this is a high paying dividend stock you know this isn't a hyper growth type stock so if you're looking to buy broadcom the question is where should you buy the stock now of course I'm not a financial advisor and I can't tell you what to do with your money if it were me I'd probably want it closer to the 650 level it might not happen the thing is is if the market stays hot names like this could run higher especially as you get catalysts like today with the Apple news so me personally if I didn't own the stock I'd probably put on my watch list I'd be interested in adding it if it came down to at least you know 675 dollars I prefer it 650 or less again that might not happen if you really like the dividend yield and you're going to hold this for a long time I think the stock will be worth a lot more in five to ten years you collect a nice dividend along the way but there are some risks for example the VMware deal if that falls through if Apple doesn't renew the contract down the road and so on but it's a high quality company amazing balance sheet amazing free cash flow solid dividend I like the stock at this level I don't think it's a buy hand over fist type of a stock at this price but it's also not crazy expensive either I personally though it's a hold for me and I would want it to dip a little bit if I were gonna buy it as a new position if you're new to the channel make sure you guys subscribe click that Bell for notifications if this wa
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