저자: Kevin · 외국인
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유가 급등이 인플레이션과 연준의 금리 정책을 자극해 스태그플레이션 우려를 키운다고 설명. 사우디 석유시설 공격 이후 유가 약 13% 급등, 다우 하락 출발. 부동산은 고정금리 대출 잠그기, 투기성 플립 자제, 마이너스 현금흐름 과다 보유 주의 권고. 주식은 항공·여행·소매 타격, 정유·셰일 수혜 가능성 언급. 채권은 금리 상승 시 가격 하락 위험. 금·은·비트코인은 선호하지 않는다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
holy smokes we've got a literally a burning issue to talk about today as it relates to your money and the economy and what is my favorite thing to talk about on this channel will anything that affects door money because after all this is the meat Kevin report where I record news that makes you money and on today's me Kevin report we are talking about none other than the impact that oil has on our economy what the heck just happened and what it means to you in fact we're going to talk not just about things directly related to oil but we're gonna talk about real estate stocks bonds what kind of investments are going to get that decimated if we continue to see problems in the oil market and of course we'll even include topics such as gold silver and Bitcoin so if there's any video you watch all the way to the end let it be this one because this is pretty big and like I've always said if something pretty big happens I'm gonna drop everything and make a video about it so here we go oh and first things first I just want to thank all of the 80 people who came to the Austin Texas real estate investing crash course the next one is in Miami followed by San Francisco and Charlotte also remember to use coupon code or rent control lol for 22 percent off now the in-person events the online real estate investing course and of the online real estate agent course if you've already bought in with a coupon code don't worry the price does go up a little bit every single time and we'll be going alive in our investing and agent course today and tomorrow first things first each of the last five recessions have been preceded by a spike in oil prices as prices in real estate and the stock market were volatile and starting to fall in 2018 oil prices also went up oil prices have obviously since settled down and we've seen real estate prices and stock prices research however what just happened up and all of us now here's something interesting about oil as oil prices go up inflation goes up as oil prices tend to drive up the costs of consumer goods transportation and just the day-to-day costs well keeping that in mind we know that the Federal Reserve has something known as a dual mandate number one stimulate the economy number two keep inflation in check well guess what happens when oil prices go up inflation goes up which means the Federal Reserve has to make a choice between stimulating the economy and controlling inflation in other words while the Federal Reserve now is trying to stimulate the economy by reducing rates if oil prices surge the Federal Reserve might actually have to increase interest rates to dampen inflation but at the same time remove growth from an already slowing economy the last thing we want to see in our marketplace today is a concept known as stagflation where the economy stagnates on one hand and on the other hand the government is forced to raise interest rates now generally it takes a lot more than a small spike in oil prices to set off any kind of stagflation concerns but the way we invest should always be adapted to what is happening in the marketplace to me having the same investment strategy no matter what the market is doing is not a wise decision in fact most people who have the same investment strategy no matter what the market is doing end up getting screwed out of either fear or panic even one of the world's greatest investors a Warren Buffett pays specific attention to oil prices and inflation because according to Warren Buffett there is no greater tax on humanity than inflation now there are some investment strategies that do well as there is inflation but a lot of investment strategies start falling apart and we'll talk about those so why all of a sudden am I talking about oil well there are a few very important things for you to know before we talk about which investment strategies to follow and which ones to be very cautious of right now number one Donald Trump has increased sanctions or sort of economic restrictions against Iran well that pisses Iran off and lately Iran has allegedly been detaining oil tankers in the region around Iran which creates some disruptions in the flow of oil the second thing you need to know is Donald Trump has partnered with a Saudi Arabia the world's second largest producer of oil to increase their production of oil well that also pisses off Iran well what just happened someone attacked Saudi Arabia's largest oil production facility reducing Saudi Arabia's oil production by 50% that's right somebody not quite sure who but somebody who's pissed off attacked Saudi Arabia reducing their oil production by 50% now apparently a group known as the Houthi rebels based out of Yemen have claimed responsibility for this attack which was launched with apparently 10 drones to basically Saudi Arabia's oil production while Houthi rebels are friendly with Iran however our Secretary of State believes there's evidence that points directly to Iran as the culprit for this attack now this background is very important because what immediately happened afterwards well oil prices skyrocketed about 13 percent this is despite Donald Trump saying if necessary Donald Trump would release oil reserves from the United States strategic oil reserve remember Donald Trump wants the economy to be stable Donald Trump knows that if oil prices go up the economy becomes less stable and the economy becomes more risky but even despite Donald Trump saying this oil prices did shoot up at the time of this recording the Dow Jones has already reacted to this news that occurred over the weekend and the Dow is in the negative territory to start off the week the Strait of hermosa is responsible for least one-fifth of the world's oil production and more conflict in this region would be really really bad and there are even some cataclysmic consequences to some of this but now let's talk a little bit about the impact to your investing a strategy and then we can go a little bit further to the dark side now that you're caught up on all of the background let's try to make the economic of consequences as simple as possible oil prices go up means inflation goes up when inflation goes up the cost of consuming goods goes up the discretionary spending that people have available goes down as costs in people's lives go up people spending ability goes down we know that our economy almost 80% of the United States economy is driven by the US consumer less consumerism coupled with less business confidence and manufacturing and recession means more problems for the economy at the same time if inflation goes up the government might be bound in terms of how much they could try to stimulate the economy to help the economy grow because if inflation goes up the last thing the government wants to do is continue to try to grow the economy while continuing to push inflation up because that leads to some really worse scenarios now there should be no question that I absolutely love a real estate I invest in real estate regularly I'm constantly looking for deals for myself to purchase I've purchased three a wedge deals this year and I try to teach everyone how normal people can become millionaires and rich through investing in real estate that's why I have a real estate investing course with over 50 hours of recorded lectures and another easily 50 hours of recorded live streams you can watch plus additional live streams coming out every single week real estate reacts very interestingly though to inflation see inflation is actually good if you own a real estate debt fixed-rate 30 or 15-year real estate debt does well when there's inflation because the debt becomes easier to pay off ever real-estate prices can be affected by increasing inflation and problems in the economy as a result I encourage you to do three things now lock-in fixed-rate loans as soon as possible as of this morning mortgage interest rates already spiked because of the potential issues resulting from oil so if you lock in those rates and now you reduce the risk of not being able to get good low fixed rate loans in the future second don't speculate on flips right now I am nervous about long-term flex if you're going to do 60-day flips that might be okay but if you're doing six months or 12 month development projects I'd be nervous if I were a builder I'd be nervous number three be able to survive a volatility see if you buy one or two properties and you have a small negative cash flow or a break-even scenario and those properties that might not be that big of a deal because you should be able to substantiate those with your actual income and as long as you bought good deals and there's reason you're in these deals and you're building wealth and you're going to convert these from negative cash flows to positive cash flows over time there's no harm in the occasional negative when you're getting into good deals however the last thing you want right now are 5 or 10 properties highly leveraged with negative cash flows because that could be very very bad in the real estate investing course I obviously teach you how to convert negative cash flows to positive cash flows no matter what the market is now what about stocks well it should be pretty obvious what gets a slammed when oil prices go up airlines travel these sectors get destroyed as oil prices go up gas companies can oftentimes see an increase in their stock values and obviously any kind of energy efficient car makers can oftentimes see a boost in their values as well they'll be careful jumping onto the Tesla bandwagon because what also goes up is the cost of production and the cost of shipping as oil prices rise now on the other hand oil companies and fracking companies they tend to like the increase in the cost of a barrel of oil and the first sector to layoff people when oil prices fall is the oil sector or the fracking industry so obviously the reverse would be true if oil prices started going up you might see more growth in the fracking field shipping can obviously be affected as well but a big one is the big R or a retail retail because of increased shipping and production costs can oftentimes also get spanked not only because the cost of their products becomes more expensive but the amount of money that consumers have available to spend becomes less available now what about bonds will bonds are particularly risky if inflation goes up C as inflation goes up and then interest rates go up to compensate or to try to bring down higher inflation what happens to bond prices bond prices will fall as newer higher yielding bonds get issued as interest rates go up existing bonds will become worth less in fact in a higher interest rate environment bonds could get decimated the reason bonds have been doing well is because interest rates have been falling and existing bonds have had their prices go up now what about safe havens like a gold silver and possibly even Bitcoin yes definitely gold and silver might be strong investments though they're not investments that I particularly like because I much prefer the productive assets that relate to real estate or stocks now I know there might be a lot more volatility in socks which is another particular reason that I love real estate because I know I can always buy my real estate below market value insulate myself from price fluctuations and even as prices fluctuate I have tenants paying off my loans and expenses for me that makes me feel very safe no matter what the market does but it does change the type of real estate I invest in I speculate less and I try to increase the amount of a wedge deal that I get and as far as Bitcoin while Bitcoin while it might be considered a bit of a safe haven I think there is still a lot of uncertainty related to regulation of Bitcoin for me to go out on a limb and say I'm Pro Bitcoin though the concept of Bitcoin I'm a big fan of now what is the all-out disaster scenario well consider this if Houthi rebels can launch a drone attack and reduce Saudi Arabia's oil production by 50% imagine what a larger armed conflict between Donald Trump who has said he is locked and loaded to respond to this Iranian threat and Iran could have not only on oil prices but the economy overall any kind of increase in this conflict you can guarantee it is going to shake markets and the best thing that I encourage for you to do is smash that like button subscribe to this channel and follow me on Instagram because this was the meet Kevin report you
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