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영상 결론: 캐즈게인즈 아카데미의 '90% 폭락 보장' 주장과 마이클 버리 vs 캐시 우드 분석은 오해를 부르는 내용이 많다. [인플레이션·경기 전망 반박] 원자재(목재·원유·구리) 가격이 5~6월 이후 조정받았지만 장기적으로는 팬데믹 이전보다 여전히 높다고 주장. [금리·성장주 관계] 국채 10년물 금리는 이미 역사적 저점 수준이라 더 낮아지기 어렵고, 금리가 오르면 성장주에 불리하다고 봄. [경기침체 시나리오] 안전자산 선호 시 채권 금리는 떨어지지만 성장주도 함께 하락하는 경우가 많아, 아카데미의 '경기침체 시 성장주 상승' 논리는 틀렸다고 주장. 과거 경기침체기에 가치주가 성장주보다 우위였다는 자료를 근거로 제시. [마진부채·밸류에이션] 마진부채 급증과 버핏지수 과열을 들어 시장 밸류에이션이 경제와 괴리돼 있다고 봄. [마이클 버리의 풋옵션 포지션] 아카데미가 버리가 시장 전체에 풋옵션을 걸었다고 한 것은 부정확하다고 지적. 실제로는 테슬라·ARKK·TLT 등에 대한 풋옵션이며, 그 외 대부분은 구글·페이스북 등 롱 포지션이라고 설명. 실제 풋옵션 규모는 ARKK 기준 포트폴리오의 약 1.48% 수준으로 추정. [포지션 성과 논쟁] 버리의 TLT 풋 포지션은 1분기부터 시작했으며 성과는 진입 시점에 따라 달라 판단 불가. 테슬라 풋은 약 900달러대 진입으로 유리하다고 봄. ARKK는 진입 시점 불명으로 평가 보류. [캐시 우드 ETF 리스크] 버리는 과거 헤지펀드처럼 출금을 막을 수 없는 ETF 구조라 자금 이탈(약 27억 달러 유출 보도)에 취약하다고 봄. 역방향 ETF(SARK) 출시 움직임도 언급. [기타 주장 검증] '캐시 우드 실적 부진이 긍정 신호'라는 주장과 '2020년 성장주, 2021년 가치주 상승이므로 2022년 성장주 상승' 논리는 근거가 없다고 반박. 맨해튼 중고차 지수 하락 주장도 연간으로 보면 18.3% 상승이라며 과장이라 지적. [출연자 전망] 출연자들은 버리의 포지션과 금리 상승 리스크를 중시하며 성장주 고평가 경계론에 무게를 둠. 명시적 종목별 목표가는 없음. [리스크·조건] 금리 상승, 자금 이탈, 연준 테이퍼링 확정이 주요 변수로 언급됨. [이해 충돌 지적] 아카데미가 ARK ETF 보유 여부를 유료 멤버십 뒤에 숨긴 점을 비판하며, 본 채널은 포지션을 공개한다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
all right welcome back to two super guys trade stocks i'm vinnie i'm dylan um everyone knows the channel kaz games academy they did a video uh called 90 crash guaranteed um there's a lot of false things in that video so we're gonna kind of talk about him because he was in our opinion also fact but our opinion too he was wrong a lot and it's very misleading so that's what we're gonna talk about all right well if you guys enjoyed this kind of content of uh two stupid guys learning trade stocks if by all means give us a like describe below we'd love to have you guys along on this journey with that we'll get to it all right let's get into it huh yeah as games academy is wrong this is the thumbnail of the video right this is the thumbnail of the video i know you're thinking 90 crash guaranteed at no point is that mentioned i don't i don't know why that was there uh it has nothing to do with a 90 crash or talk about a crash in general uh it's just clickbait it wasn't it wasn't for anything yeah you gotta love it so we're gonna break this up into claims and um and uh why they are just unbelievably false so basically the claim was the possible scenarios of our current economic and stock market outlook are lower than expected inflation and recession um that's it uh both of which favor growth stocks yeah okay yep exactly very interesting not just growth stocks but in particular you know kathy woods brand of hyper growth socks ah yeah interesting exactly okay so this is a little uh this is the cpi index for everybody and you know he he kind of said inflation is starting to cool down as commodity prices are cooling off lumber oil copper us dollars increasing is pointing towards lower inflation okay i'm gonna let vinnie take over here yeah so i know this is kind of interesting that there's definitely been like a decrease this is this is lumber this is the one that the kathy woods uh particularly cited like you know kind of in her debunking or her according to cass gaines academy twitter rampage against michael berry uh yeah yeah like the rampage right yeah how yeah i know right how it's descended quite a bit since may and yes that is indeed true you know lumber has had quite a significant pullback but if you look at the long-term horizon it's still above where it was before we had the pandemic and the global shutdown like you know it's not you know it's hard to put the genie back in the bottle when uh the supply chain has gotten used to these increased prices you know are you gonna be willing to work for less next year dylan no that's not that's not what works right i'm under contract unfortunately yeah your contract price doesn't go down every year fair yeah um and you know the other ones you talk about copper uh you know having a 10 pullback yeah but look at look at this long-term time horizon copper still significantly above i mean look at this from a swing trade standpoint dylan right you got all three moving averages lining up beautifully here don't you oh yeah i'm looking for that bounce around that that four dollar level yeah i know right it looks good to me pick up a little uh freeport mech moran at that point i have some actually yeah nice i love it and then crude too they talked a little bit about the pullback since may and like yeah i i agree there has been a little bit of a pullback but uh still like you know this this isn't dramatic shift from uh where it was like you know pre-pandemic you know in terms of um you know commodity prices right yeah it's still up a lot yeah so this is a direct slide except for the word claim but this is a direct slide from this presentation but basically lower inflation scenario investors predict lower than expected inflation which means bond yields fall as bond prices increase that little part there is true growth stocks increase in value hmm yeah interesting right okay what's that no go ahead yeah yeah so interesting you talk about the the bond yields here yeah yeah i i agree that they're still at like historic lows basically but it's hard for them to go down two months further um you know in in that actual video he showed a six month timeline it's like yeah certainly over the last six months they've been on a downtrend but uh it it's hard to argue that money is going to get too much cheaper yeah that was a it was unbelievable unbelievably misleading because he shows you a six-month timeline from march right where it's literally right where it starts to decrease towards the tail end there right but in reality when you look at the 10-year um the 10-year treasury constant maturity rate we're really low like we money can't get much cheaper the problem is it's very cheap so as as the yields are going to increase then basically loans are going to cost more that's horrible for growth stocks because they don't have any money yeah they need to borrow a lot of money in order to fund their future operations until they become profitable i wouldn't say horrible but yeah it's certainly uh a headwind um yeah this one's even more interesting to me this is the best one so this is also a slide from his uh his presentation except for the word claim recession investors buy bonds for safety bond yields uh fall as bond prices increase growth stocks increase in value so in a recession you want to you want to buy you you want to buy some some fubo i mean i love fubo yeah the mental gymnastics on this one in order to make this make sense uh are are kind of con confounding to me um so the first part of the slide here we talk about investors buy bonds for safety okay reasonable logic people people there's a flight to safety uh bond yields do fall you know because there's this flight to safety and it is indeed true that growth stocks will be able to borrow money at a cheaper rate when there's been a selective safety the problem with this whole logic is that the very flight to safety that causes the bonnies drop also causes growth stocks to drop yeah so i took a couple of snippets here uh from a couple of sources uh both investopedia this is you know investopedia is basically like the the the basic resource you know an encyclopedia for investing um pretty much right in there they they tell you that this is not the case uh value stocks did outperform during bear markets all right yeah um and then this was actually another interesting uh it was a really good article um i'll try to remember to link it below um but they really went through like you know multiple recessions i think it was like 1957 um and basically found that only once uh during that entire time period was a um a growth mentality uh outperformed um you know the value mentality but uh that was because they thought it was due to underlying decrease in the economy rather than valuation change which is more what people are arguing for at this point in time isn't the economy is great it's just the valuations that are a little out of sorts right okay yeah we we should link that because that's a good article yeah i'll try to remember to do it um and then you know this is where the valuation being out of sorts kind of comes from look you know look at this margin debt people money is so cheap people are just borrowing money and throwing it at the stock market you know yeah robin hood gold and you're good to go right yeah it's uh it's disgustingly cheap how much money i can borrow on robinhood it's pretty unhealthy yeah um and same thing we talked the previous video about this but the buffett indicator um just giving you an idea of like how you know the the stock market has become disjointed from um the economy in general see you know when i look at this and you know michael bury's basic uh underlying bet against kathy wood um he's basically saying we're playing musical chairs and at some point the music is going to stop and he's looked around the room and he's going like that guy looks pretty slow he's got a messed up leg and he's like had a couple too many drinks so i don't think he's going to be the survivor of the first round of this thing and that's what he said about basically rptf is going like this this is the one this is the person that's like most susceptible to the music stopping you know this money stopping that's that's a wonderful analogy i figured you'd love it i do like it um yeah you want to go on this claim yeah so um we're going to get into he basically throughout his whole video was then just saying like brewery's wrong and all this stuff and kathy woods is an angel and she's just right about everything um so 121 cass gaines academy claims that burry doubled down his bet against the entire market via put options that's important against the entire market via put options it's important because it's in no way accurate yeah at all yeah yeah how many puts do you see on the screen huh dylan i see three and one of them has nothing to do with one of them is just the treasury yeah yeah yeah exactly i mean you can argue that there are sides of like the same that where you know you're looking for a kind of reversion to the mean basically i think is what what berries looks at for this stuff so you just have to put contracts on tesla rptf um kathy woods flagship uh of which tesla is the largest holding and also against the tlt which is the the long-term bond um etf uh the vast majority of positions are long positions you know including call options against companies like facebook google you know so he his hardly anti-tech anti-growth he just wants companies that actually are producing cash and deserve to be valued at the levels they are that's the best part of those growth companies ones that produce cash yeah um and another thing is everyone's going like he's shorting uh tesla and ark and they're really equating it the same can you read the percent of portfolio for the arc there yeah so you know it's it's kind of questionable so 1.48 uh is what the contracts ideally represent in terms of underlying shares of arc in reality this is a relatively probably small bet compared his portfolio um because it only accounts for the value of the shares and the premium is always less than the shares when you're doing put contracts you pay a premium for the right to sell shares at a specified price at a future on or before future date um so it's actually probably a much smaller position he might build it over time though i think this might be one he sticks with and continues to add to probably yeah which is gonna get into our other claim here yeah uh he claimed that uh michael berry's bet which he started a few months ago um is not paying out as anticipated one he actually started in quarter one um so not so not a few months ago also this is like uh this is public information so i don't i don't know how this happened um if you want to go to the next slide so he's referring to tlt at that point in the video at 3 minutes 33 seconds so the the red is the increased fedbine the first green box is actually where he entered to be clear uh the second green box is where he added and he the claim is that um he's not doing well right um so if you look at where we are this is a pretty typical abcd pattern i'm going to the short side depending on where he entered between uh january and uh end of march he could be negative he could be positive he's most likely probably in the middle um here go to the next slide for me yeah you haven't got a list yet of like the federal reserve actually announcing a firm tapering which is i think what he's looking for as far as a catalyst which uh just happened yesterday it kind of it it happened i'm calling it uh tesla this is when he entered the tesla put um puts her when you want the stock to go down so clearly he's most likely pretty positive on this one as well because that was at like 900 ish so looks pretty good to me yeah maybe i'm wrong uh arc this one's more in the middle really depends on where i entered we have no idea we are not going to speculate as to where he entered because frankly it is pointless we don't do that here yeah um but he entered somewhere in that red box this is this is actually this is my favorite one yeah this was pretty funny kathy woods under performance this year is a positive signal for her i mean she said it too so i mean he wasn't making this up on his own but yeah okay so one thing that's particularly interesting about this is you know if you remember the move the big short is michael berry was running a hedge fund at that time when investors started to doubt his housing short he was able to lock his fund right and and prevent withdrawals so he didn't have like a run for the exits and have to liquidate his position at a loss because everyone would have yes it was crazy unlike uh michael berry's position there kathy wood runs an etf she is unable to do that meaning that if there was a shock to confidence in her etf that there's nothing for she can do to you know kind of stave off the run for the exits so if something it doesn't take much it takes like one little like you know little ember like into a pile of tinder and like the you know you could set that off and then you know unfortunately it could be a self-fulfilling prophecy you know yeah it's um essentially anyone can leave at any time exactly yeah and people have been leaving this i thought this article right here was about uh uh since the end of june about 2.7 billion dollars that have left her fund uh i mean that doesn't necessarily mean like the end of the world but you know it is true that it is something she's having to kind of stem the tide of right and this this is kind of funny too when you see this is this is how much like to a degree that maybe people smell a little bit of blood in the water um you know because it's just sharks uh there someone actually applied i think it was total capital applied for a inverse arc uh etf um that would not be approved by the succ until at least october uh expected to trade under the ticker symbol sark s.a.r.k which was i thought was pretty funny um but you know i i think this thesis that michael bury has by putting these put options there is not entirely foreign to many other um more value-oriented investors right um this is also cool so yeah so generally this is back from the from the claim that her underperformance is actually a good thing so at no point is underperformance like a great thing and i put this on the same slide because there was a claim that grow stocks increased in 2020 value stocks increased in 2021 so that means that growth stocks have to increase in 2022 because they're next on the rotation because that's how stocks work yeah perfect oh you should man i would be a billionaire if that was that easy like everyone would you just be like uh all right december 31st get out yeah done tomorrow what on earth is that yeah yeah nothing in life is that simple i don't even okay uh this one's minor i i just it just bothered me because this isn't so much a bad claim it's just that it's the way he said it the manhattan used car index has been falling month after month 622 you know the next guy yeah it just fell for uh for two months yeah um after month this is another zoomed in thing um it's actually still 18.3 percent increase from august 2020 to august 2021 but if you just look at the last two candles then or two bars then you're like oh yeah it's falling that's not how it works yeah i love it so you're telling me my car is 18 more valuable than it was last year technically yeah i mean that's that's that's that's pretty solid i love it now granted it depends on if it's like a van versus an suv well i don't get into that yeah exactly i i actually wanted to just throw this tweet in here this is back from when michael berry still had a twitter account uh tweeted this back in february where he was talking about already at that point you know kind of going inverse arc um yeah uh it's interesting about how like at that time uh it was like so unthought of and unfavorable to even think about taking a bet against uh kathy wood that uh the call options and positions she owned were nine times more in terms of volume than the put options i'm i'm sure that they put call like parody is kind of changed around a little bit over time here yeah i'm sure it definitely has yeah he was definitely eyeing this pretty pretty pretty early in the year pretty early in the year yeah so that is our uh our cass games video didn't you say uh can you say something about um yeah yeah so is that true uh yeah so one of my gripes with this is that um in order to see whether or not cavs gains academy has a financial interest here and owns any arc etfs i'd have to join their patreon and pay five dollars a month in order to see that like to me that like that was just oh i that's all kinds are wrong you know if you're going to put yeah um that you know is of loose factual basis you know compared to other verifiable things i understand in life that nothing is always 100 but um and then also have a financial interest in that that's pretty questionable to not disclose that uh publicly yeah it's it's pretty messed up it's not cool at all like we did a video on how we don't like uh like nicola and like i straight up like show like i'm shorting nickel out of like five contracts uh we we do full transparency here we're a much smaller channel it's not very popular to do that uh but yeah there you go we'll do our best well let us know what you guys think in the comments down below i know a lot of you guys out there uh watch cavs games academy as well because it's uh youtube on our analytics tells us like other channels that our viewers watch and this is this is one of them one of the top like 10 or so okay all right all right guys we'll see in the next one have a good one
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