저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
채권금리는 주로 과거 제로금리·QE에 의한 인위적 억제에서 정상화된 상태로, 4~5% 수준이 정상이라 과도하게 우려할 필요 없다는 주장. 연준은 2024년 9월 50bp 인하 등 완화했으나 추가 인하는 제한적(0~1~2회)이라 봄. 생산성 증가(2%→3~4%)와 AI 등 기술 혁신으로 실질 GDP 3~4%, 명목 GDP 5~6% 가능, 2025년 말 S&P500 목표 7,000 제시(주당이익 285달러 전제). 다만 밸류에이션(버핏지수 사상 최고, 선행 PER 약 22배)은 비싸다고 인정하며, 매그니피센트7은 계속 높은 배수를 유지할 것으로 봄. 단기 채권은 신용위험 없이도 4.25~4.5% 수익이 합리적이라 언급.
다듬은 글
Bloomberg audio Studios podcasts radio news a treat on this special edition of Bloomberg surveillance Ed yard Deni for an extended conversation Ed I read your note carefully yesterday folks I can't say enough about the value of subscribing to yard Denny's at quick takes you assessed the bond market should people that own shares be afraid of higher yields I think they should be concerned but uh all in all I think bond yields have normalized I think that's important to keep that in mind they were abnormally low between the great financial crisis and the great virus crisis because the Fed was manipulating rates it was rigging the bond market with the shortterm rate the federal funds rate being down to zero and then of course quantitative easing uh now the bond market has been sort of liberated free to tell us what the supply and demand in the credit markets really is and I think we're back to where we were before the great financial crisis when bond yields rang between 4 and 5% so I don't think we should freak out about that I think we should actually welcome it because it's a sign that the economy is doing just uh quite well you think Paul there's four people on the planet that agree with Dr y so Ed I mean given that backdrop I mean how do you think this uh Federal Reserve is going to proceed for the remainder of 2025 well um it's interesting you know the fed the FED just they just won't listen to me I don't I don't understand why but back in August of last year uh we were saying U my my colleague Eric walstein and I were saying that the economy is resilient it's strong it's demonstrated that uh it could withstand a tightening of monetary policy and again I think the FED not only tightened the monetary policy when they took the FED funds rate from zero to 5 and a half% between 2022 and and 2023 I think they also normalized uh interest rates both the federal funds rate and the bond yield are kind of back to to normal uh but so in August we thought there was no need for the FED to uh act but they didn't listen so they they did not just 25 basis points they did 50 basis points on September 18th and uh we argued that um that would probably lead to higher Bond and that's exactly what's happened we've had the FED funds right down 100 basis points this is brilliant Paul I can't say enough about this overnight on LinkedIn Paul dunan of UBS and he'll be with us folks in the coming days like Dr yarden was collegially scathing about a Fed in the recent decisions exactly so anded I mean how let me let me just answer your question the bottom line is I I think they're definitely on pause that's the message we're getting from the Fed and I think it may be none andone or maybe one or two and and done but it's I think the FED is uh doesn't have to lower interest rates anymore as we just complete two years 2023 2024 of north of 20% returns in the S&P 500 Index and how do you think about 2025 stocks bonds all that kind of stuff how are you talking to your clients this year well um technical terms roaring 2020s baby yep I mean uh so far so good back in 2019 we we suggested that the decade ahead the 2020s could be the Roaring 2020s we noticed that there's a shortage of Labor skill labor especially and that there was a tremendous plethora of technological innovations that uh were actually useful that actually work and are relatively inexpensive to to implement and that these Technologies would lead to a productivity growth boom we've had them before this one seems to be much more sustainable and potentially uh much more significant at your Danny withs folks a special edition of Bloomberg surveillance we're with you till 9:00 where Amry hordon and David gura will join from Washington with the services at the National Cathedral uh for James Earl Carter thrilled to an Mar Horton and David girlo will give us their perspective on that we are thrilled as well to give you Ed yard Denny this morning I can't say enough about in October of I think it was two years ago Ed yard Deni and Ed I'm going to give credit to the great technician Ralph van compor as well said climb on board equities my friend yeah you maintain your enthusiasm Dr yardeni I looked at the lineup of hedge fund performance and everybody hedged last year very few people were full yard Deni describe full yard Deni well f y dting right now is uh stay invested uh it's hard for me to tell people who've been in cash to jump in here because the market uh isn't cheap but uh if you've been fully invested particularly in technology communication Services Industrials financials which is the sectors we favored uh we would actually stay with them uh I I know they're not cheap but on the other hand that their earnings Outlook is really quite uh quite good um for the year for the current year we we have $285 a share for the S&P 500 uh that beats all the other strategists on on the street and that's consistent with the Roaring 2020 is idea of a productivity Le U economic boom Ed it seems like for 2025 you know given where the FED is I.E probably a little bit uh you know maybe a couple of cuts at most for 2025 it sounds like it's a year where earnings really have to push this Market higher earnings have to come through do you have concerns about some of the earnings estimates out there for this Market well look not only does the FED not listen to me but the market doesn't listen to me uh I I I would love to have a nice civilized uh uh gradual uh bull market from here that's driven just by earnings and not valuations uh valuations are not cheap the buffet ratio is at an all-time record high uh the uh forward PE is around 22 back right before the tech wre of 000 it was 25 so we're not far from that I mean information technology and communication Services account for a whopping 40% of the S&P 500 and we know that 30% of the S&P 500 is the Magnificent 7 look I don't think these stocks are gonna The Magnificent Seven are going to go away I think they're here to stay I think they're going to continue to account for high valuation multiple I think they're going to continue to outperform but I'm also counting on the S&P 493 to to do well so my year end Target is 7,000 on the S&P 500 which I I I think can be driven mostly up by by earnings tell us about the linkage here of nominal GDP into Revenue which supports your earnings call the margin call the development of free cash flow do we have a buoyancy of 5% nominal GDP sustained I think so I think um again consistent uh with the roaring 20 20s scenario um I think that productivity which is currently quadrupled from 0.5% at an annual rate on a five-year trailing basis uh it was 0.5% back at the end of 2015 and now we're at 2% so we've already seen a significant productivity growth boom but 2% is kind of average for the historical average so what we're counting on is productivity to do well a bit better than that maybe three three and a half even 4% which to some people might sound delusional but if you look at previous productivity uh growth booms um that's what we got to and we think we're going to get to that e handily by the end of the decade because of the technologies that are available out there uh so uh yeah I think uh 3% uh growth is kind of what we're at right now maybe a little less than that on a year-over-year basis three and a half to 4% real GDP is possible add 2% wow in and you get five to six% I can't empathize enough Paul how alone yard Denny is on this there's some Bulls out there John stus I'm alone I'm alone but I don't feel lonely you don't don't feel lonely but for to the idea that we're going to sustain 3% real GDP how many guests are telling us that it's pretty loan call exactly hey Ed what are you suggesting folks doing the fixed income Market because a lot of folks feel pretty comfortable with 4.25% in two-year Treasury do they need to take credit risk they don't really need to take credit risk and I I welcome that I think that's again normalization we we should have an economy where if investors don't want to take risk they shouldn't be punished with 0o to 2% uh yields on their money market uh funds I think they should be getting a reasonable return and four four and a half% is certainly a reasonable return on a uh a two-year on the other hand people who want to lock it in uh can certainly go for the four and a half uh and higher percents that are available in the uh in the capital markets so you don't have to take risk but um there's greater reward obviously if you're willing to go extend into the bond market go into the corporates maybe even into the high yields Ed Denny thank you so much greatly greatly appreciate it this morning Edward J Denny there with a call of 7,000 xpx I didn't in my head I'm sorry I can't like interpolate the extrapolate on the Dow Jones Industrial Average but it's a big number
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