저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 과거 40년의 저금리 환경이 끝나고 고금리가 장기화되므로 주식 시장의 쉬운 수익 시대는 지났다는 관점이다. 핵심 주장: 1980년대 이후 기준금리가 약 20%에서 0%까지 내려간 저금리 추세가 자산 가격 상승의 가장 큰 동력이었다. 금리 하락은 차입 비용을 낮추고 자산 가치 평가(할인율)를 높였다. 근거 수치: S&P500은 1980년 약 100에서 2022년 초 약 4,800까지 상승했고, 1,000달러 투자가 배당 재투자 시 약 122,000달러가 되었다. 계약 가치 예시에서 할인율 20%일 때 162달러, 2%일 때 820달러로 금리가 낮을수록 현재가치가 커진다. 현재 상황: 2020년 초 약 0%였던 연방기금금리가 2년 미만에 5%대까지 올랐지만 S&P500 하락폭은 고점 대비 약 10%에 그쳤다. 투자자들은 고금리를 일시적이라 보지만 마크스는 이에 동의하지 않는다. 실질금리: 명목금리에서 인플레이션을 뺀 실질금리가 양(+)이어야 대출이 성립하므로, 인플레이션 2% 목표 달성 시 연방기금금리는 2~4% 수준의 중립금리 이상이 필요하다고 본다. 이는 향후 10년이 지난 10년보다 금리가 높을 것이라는 전망이다. 투자 전략 및 전환: 금리가 높은 환경이 장기화되면 위험곡선(risk curve)이 위로 이동해, 같은 목표수익률을 주식보다 덜 위험한 고품질 채권·신용상품(하이일드, 레버리지 대출, 사모 바이아웃 대출 등)에서 얻을 수 있다. 신용상품은 채권자 우선 변제 구조로 주식보다 안전하며, 하이일드 채권은 한 자릿수 후반, 사모 바이아웃 대출 우량 건은 두 자릿수 수익을 기대할 수 있다고 언급했다. 리스크: 고금리가 장기화되면 과거 저금리 기반으로 쌓인 기업 부채·사모 레버리지 구조가 부담이 될 수 있다. 금리 전망은 Fed 정책과 인플레이션 경로에 따라 달라지므로 불확실하다. 출연자 전망: 주식 시장의 '쉬운 시대' 종료, 주식 대비 신용상품 선호 확대, 금리 2~4% 중립 수준 장기 유지를 전망한다.
다듬은 글
If this is the change I'm thinking about, then the composition of your portfolio in the future could be significantly different from what it was before. Billionaire investor Howard Marks warns that the "easy times" in the stock market are probably over. In a recent interview, Marx was quoted as saying, "There is a radical shift happening right now that will fundamentally change the economy and the way people approach investing." So be sure to watch the video until the end, as Marx shares his investment advice to take advantage of this once-in-40- year opportunity.
That's what he said. Let's talk about two notes you wrote recently that have become quite famous. One of them, called " Sea Change", was written last year. As far as I understand and remember from what I read, you claim that during your lifetime there have been three such "radical changes" in the world of investments.
Two of them happened earlier. Describe what these changes were. And now we have the third fundamental change. This third change is that interest rates are not going to come down anytime soon, and we will have to live with higher rates for quite some time to come. Is this fair? Well, that's about it.
I would say this: remember 1980, when the Fed rate was 20%, and I had a bank loan at 22.25%. After 40 years, the Fed rate was zero, and I had a bank loan at 2.25% . So, the 20 percentage point reduction in interest rates over this period was a defining factor in the financial world. I think this was the most important event in the financial world in the last 50 years.
Although she is underestimated. Well, okay. OK. Was this the first fundamental change in your investment practice? No, this is... Well, it was... No , actually it was the second one, but the third one is a continuation of it. Between 2009 and 2013, the Fed lowered the rate to zero to combat the global financial crisis.
They kept it at that level for a long time and were unable to bring it back to what could be considered normal ranges. So we had a low interest rate environment, which made life much easier for borrowers and asset owners. Doing business was easy. The economy was developing well. We had the longest bull market and the longest economic recovery in history.
We had a very low level of defaults and bankruptcies. It was an easy world. And if you read articles, for example about Silicon Valley Bank, they talk about an environment of " easy money." And the main idea of " Sea Change" is that we are no longer in an environment of "easy money." So you're saying that all the geniuses of private equity are not geniuses at all .
We benefited from low interest rates. Well, you know, in Sea Change there's a part where I talk about someone saying, "Oh, we can buy this company and make 10% a year." Then he turns to his capital markets specialist and asks, “ How much will it cost to get this money?” We can borrow at 8. Borrow at 8, invest at 10.
Great. We do it. You are buying a company. But in the stimulating environment of low interest rates, the company performs better. You earn more than 10. The value of your money drops from 8 to 6 and then to 5. And it costs you less to borrow money. And you say, "Wow, I'm a genius." The US stock market has shown impressive growth for most of the last four decades.
As we can see in this chart, the S&P 500 index rose from around 100 in early 1980 to a high of almost 4,800 in early 2022. This means that $1,000 invested in the stock market in 1980 would have turned into a whopping $48,000 by the beginning of 2022, even without taking into account dividends. If you add in reinvested dividends, that $1,000 would turn into a staggering $122,000.
With such impressive returns, the last 40 years can be considered the golden era of the stock market. Amazing companies were founded during this period . The average public company has become more profitable. American corporations grew as international markets opened up and business became a global affair.
All of these factors contributed to extremely impressive stock market results. However, according to Howard Marks, all of these factors pale in comparison to what he saw as the main driver of stock market returns over the past four decades: falling interest rates. Take a look at this graph of the effective federal funds rate, a measure of interest rates in the U.S.
economy. As we can see, interest rates peaked in the early 1980s, when the Fed rate reached almost 20%. From 1980 to 2010, interest rates continued to fall with each decade. This continued until the rates simply could not fall any further. The federal funds rate was lowered to 0% in response to the Great Financial Crisis, and it remained at that level for most of the next decade.
40 years of consistently low interest rates have created a powerful tailwind for the stock market. Let me explain. The value of any asset, whether it's a stock, bond, or real estate, is based on the cash flows it will generate for you as the owner, discounted to today's date using the appropriate interest rate.
I know this definition may sound a bit complicated, but it's actually incredibly simple. Here's an interesting thought experiment to demonstrate. Let's say, as a thank you for being a loyal viewer of this channel, I decided to reward you with $1,000 in cash; and let me remind you: be sure to click the subscribe button if you haven't already , as our investor community is approaching 300,000.
And it would be even better if you became a part of it. Okay, let's go back to our example. This $1,000 has one condition. You will receive $1,000, but not today. This will be exactly 10 years in the future. We formalize this as an official agreement and sign a contract. Let's call this document Contract A.
Contract A gives you the legal right to receive $1,000 in 10 years. This raises an interesting question that I want you to ponder, since you will only receive this money in 10 years. How much is the fact that you will receive $1,000 in 10 years worth to you today? In other words , imagine someone approached you today and wanted to buy out your legal right to receive that money in 10 years.
What would be the fair selling price of contract A? I want you to think about this for a second, because it's at the heart of what Howard Marks is talking about. Remember, I said earlier that the value of any asset is based on the cash flow it will bring to the owner, discounted to today at the appropriate interest rate.
This concept is applicable here as well. The value of Contract A is extremely dependent on what current interest rates are. This $1,000 must be so- called discounted using current interest rates to reflect the fact that a dollar in 10 years is not worth as much as a dollar today. This is a concept known as the time value of money.
Let's see this concept in action. Using an interest rate of 20%, the value of Contract A is $162. Let's see what happens if we lower the interest rate. At a rate of 15%, the value of contract A increases to $247. If we lower the interest rate further to 10%, the cost will increase even more, up to $386.
We will make everything more interesting and significantly lower the interest rate. At 7%, the value of contract A jumps to $58. If we act very decisively and lower the rate to 2%, the value will skyrocket to $820. Notice how the value of Contract A increased from 162 at the beginning to 820 just because of the decrease in the interest rate.
This is exactly what Howard Marks meant when he said that the steady decline in rates over the past 40 years has been a huge boost to stocks. In this example, we calculated the value of a contract that gives the owner the legal right to receive a certain amount of money in the future. This is exactly what the action is.
A stock represents an ownership stake in a business and gives you a legal right to the cash that the business will generate in the future. What lies ahead for the stock market in the future will depend largely on what happens to interest rates. Here's what Howard Marks had to say about it. Um, let me make sure I understand correctly.
You believe that interest rates have risen and are now quite high. But the conventional wisdom in Washington, which isn't always correct—in fact , it's more often wrong than right—is that the Fed will likely start cutting rates next year. And if the Fed starts cutting rates because inflation is falling to 2%—their target—why don't you believe that rates will fall and we'll go back to another 20 years of low rates?
Why do you think they will remain relatively high? I think I mentioned in the memo : rates will probably be between two and four percent, not between zero and two. The federal funds rate from zero to two is an emergency measure, and , you know, the Fed rate was zero most of the time between 2009 and 2021, and that's inappropriate.
It's stimulating, but you can't live on adrenaline injections every morning for 13 years. And this really subsidizes borrowers and punishes lenders and depositors. And I would like to see the Fed reach a neutral position that is neither stimulatory nor restrictive. And I describe it as a level of two to four percent.
If inflation is two percent, then the federal funds rate must be higher to ensure a positive real interest rate. Earlier in this video, we discussed the theory of how higher interest rates lead to lower stock prices . Although in theory everything should work exactly as it often does , in reality the situation can be a bit more complicated.
Over the past 18 months or so, interest rates have been rising at the fastest pace in generations. As we see here, at the beginning of 2020 the federal funds rate was around 0%. In less than 2 years, it has grown to its current level of over 5%. Given such significantly higher rates, you would think that stock prices should fall, right?
Well , that didn't actually happen. Despite significantly higher interest rates, the US stock market has fallen only about 10% from its historical highs. This is because many investors and economists consider these higher interest rates to be only temporary. It is assumed that when inflation begins to decline and the economy slows, the Fed will have no choice but to cut rates to near historic lows.
That's why the stock market hasn't reacted more negatively to the rapid rise in interest rates. Howard Marks disagrees. To understand why, you have to understand what so- called real rates are. Simply put, the real interest rate is the rate adjusted for the effects of inflation. Here is a simplified way to calculate the real interest rate.
Let's assume that the current interest rate is 5%. This is called the nominal interest rate. Think of it as an interest rate before inflation. Also, in this example, let's assume that inflation is currently 4%. A way to roughly calculate the real interest rate is to use the stated rate. So in this example, 5%, and we subtract inflation —in this example, 4%.
This gives us, so to speak, a real interest rate of 1% . Marx believes that higher nominal interest rates are with us for the long haul. This is because Marx makes the argument that in order to lend money, lenders must receive a positive real return. Using our example, if nominal rates fall to 2% and inflation remains at 4%, the real rate will be -2%.
In Marx's opinion, this would be unviable. No sane investor would borrow money if its return after inflation is negative. As a result, Howard Marks believes that interest rates in the next decade will be higher than in the previous one. Here's how he recommends investing in the so- called "new normal" environment of higher interest rates.
Okay, let's talk about your other memorandum. You have another paper called " Further Reflections on Global Change." Yes. And the one that was written a couple of months ago. The gist of it, if I can describe it, and you correct me if I'm wrong, is that because of the global changes that you described in your previous note, you think there's going to be a shift in the assets that people are going to want to own, and they're going to want to own more fixed income instruments because interest rates are going to be high for quite some time.
Is this fair? That's fair. You know, the S&P 500 index has been returning 10% per year or even a little more for a hundred years. This was enough to turn a dollar in 1920 into $15,000. This is a good rate of return. Today you can get equity-level returns from what we call credit instruments, loans, corporate loans, corporate buyout loans.
Uh -huh. You can get high single-digit rates on high-yield bonds and leveraged credit instruments, public instruments that are traded and liquid, or low double-digit rates on private buyout loans. The best buyouts, the biggest buyouts, yield double-digit returns. Isn't that enough? And ...Credit instruments, I mean, the returns on credit instruments are much safer than stocks.
The shares only receive the balance. After everyone is paid, they get what's left. Creditors get paid early on, and if you don't get paid, you get the company as it goes bankrupt. So, it's pretty safe. And profitability that is quite competitive with stocks with a good level of safety. For about two decades from 2001 to 2021, if you wanted to get a decent return on your money, you were pretty much forced to invest almost exclusively in stocks.
The returns on things like savings accounts and bonds were simply too low to provide significant returns for investors' cash. As higher interest rates become the new norm, Howard Marks predicts a shift away from stocks and toward safer so- called credit instruments. Here's what it means. For reference, Marx graduated from the University of Chicago with an MBA in 1969.
At that time, one of his professors introduced the concept of the risk curve. Simply put, this graph says that in order for investors to earn higher expected returns, they should invest in increasingly riskier investments. In other words, if all investments yielded the same return, why would anyone invest in the volatile stock market when they could keep their money in a savings account and have the same income?
The only way investors will invest in riskier assets is through the incentive of higher expected returns. This line here is called the risk curve. As investors move further along the risk curve, risk increases , but so does expected return. Let's say we have an investor who wants to get 10% profit. When interest rates are low, investors may have to move further along the risk curve to achieve their target return.
In this example, that means investing in more aggressive stocks. However, let's see how higher interest rates change things. When interest rates in an economy rise, the risk curve shifts upward. Now that interest rates are higher, our investor doesn't need to move as far along the risk curve to get the same 10% return.
This goal of 10% return can be achieved by investing in quality bonds instead of stocks. Bonds are considered less risky than stocks because in the event of bankruptcy, bondholders must be paid every penny before shareholders receive anything. If higher interest rates remain for a long time, it could completely change the approach to investing for many people and institutions.
Gone are the days when people had no choice but to invest in the stock market. Only time will tell whether Mark's prediction will come true. That's all, actually . I hope you enjoyed this video, don't forget to hit the subscribe button, because my goal is to help you become a better investor by learning from the experiences of the world's greatest investors. See you soon.
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