저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
Mobius는 전 세계 통화 발행으로 인플레이션이 지속되며 주식시장이 실질 수익률 방어에 유리하다고 주장. 인도를 가장 매력적인 투자처로 꼽고 인도 중심 펀드 출시를 준비 중이라 밝힘. 중국은 정부 주도 기업 구조와 디플레이션, 부동산 위기로 부진하나 정권교체가 있으면 민간 기업 중심으로 성장할 수 있다고 언급. 관세 불확실성은 미국의 협상 전략으로 점차 정리될 것으로 봄. 중동(이란-이스라엘, 호르무즈)의 긴장 고조는 새로운 리스크로 제시됨.
다듬은 글
[Appreciation] Let us begin the discussion with the prediction made by Mark Movius about India. Mark Movius says that India has now become the best country offering investment opportunities. Movius is also looking at India as a new global supplier, replacing China. He has also said a big thing about China.
Now the question arises that why is Markmovius so interested in India ? Sir, I also have the same question for you: what do you see as the reason behind Markmovius showing so much interest in India? Is there any economic situation behind this or is the market attracting them ? No, see, Mark Mobius has always been bullish on India and the Indian market and recently he has given an interview to Economic Times in which he has said many important things.
There are four major factors or four major areas where he has mentioned these things. Firstly, he has talked about inflation and among the biggest problems facing the world at this time, there are these four issues related to it. The first is inflation on which he has given a big statement. The second is the Indian market.
After all, why does the Indian market have the potential to surpass everyone in the world and how attractive it is, this has been said. The third thing he said was that he has made a big statement regarding China, which is probably the first such statement by any leading market expert or investor. That is the matter of regime change in China.
And the fourth thing he said was that he has made a big statement on the uncertainty that existed in the world regarding tariffs just before the Iran-Israel war. Yes, now first of all if we talk about inflation, then in this interview he has said that look, inflation remains a problem all over the world and inflation is not going anywhere.
The reason he gave for this is that countries around the world are continuously printing money. They are printing notes, printing currency. Printing currency. This means the outflow of currency is increasing by 2% every year. This is what they say and because of this, inflation is increasing. Now what is the solution to this?
He also told this in it. He said that the solution to this is that you invest money in the market so that you can get better inflation adjusted returns and that is available only in the equity market. So in this he has said that if you invest money in good quality companies, then they give you strong returns after inflation adjustment.
Because if inflation increases, then these companies also increase their pricing according to inflation. So, this is a big thing about inflation, ah ah Rohit ah, he has said ah Mark Mobius. After that he talked about the Indian market. Regarding the Indian market, he has said that amidst the turmoil and hustle and bustle going on across the world, the Indian market appears to be the most promising.
He has said that there are many types of companies in India, the shares of some companies have fallen, but the shares of many companies are rising rapidly and there are a large number of such companies in India where you can get good returns in the long run. So, he is bullish on the Indian market and along with that he has also said that he is going to launch an India focused fund.
For which he is waiting for permission. We are waiting for the approvals that we are getting. 30-40% of their fund's exposure can be India centric. So, if I talk about the Indian market specifically, then the technology based sectors, those companies, sorry, he is bullish about them. He says that these companies and those companies which are taking the help of technology to expand their business and improve margins can get good benefits.
Yes, I mean they are especially taking more interest in sectors like IT etc. Absolutely, sir, one more thing that Mark Mobius mentioned, which you were obviously saying in the beginning that generally no such investor has ever said before, is that he has said some things regarding the change of power in China.
What is it Sir, what is the issue and what has he said, not actually, see, Mark Mobius has said a very important thing, he has said it regarding regime change in China, that is, regarding change of power in China and I think that after many years we are hearing such a thing from such a big investor who has said that regime change can happen in China.
We used to think that there was talk of regime change in Iran. But Mark Mobius is talking about regime change in China. He is saying that such signs have emerged in the recent past. Due to which it seems that Xi Jinping, who is the President of China, may be ousted from power. May be out of power. His next point related to this is that if this happens then it will be good for the whole world and secondly it will be good for China.
It will be good for the Chinese markets. So this is a very important thing that he has said that the Chinese markets, which have been continuously underperforming in the recent past, can once again be seen performing well and the root cause of this is that if there is a regime change in China. Now what will change from this?
Let's see what factors can drive the market towards China. He says that currently the entire economy of China or all the enterprises are government oriented. It is government based. That means most of the big companies of China which are performing well and are surviving are government companies. So when there is a change of power in China, regime changes, then the working style or ownership of the companies will come into private hands.
Private companies will grow faster and this will mean that the Chinese market can grow faster. But the big question is whether we can see a regime change in China because China has been facing a big structural problem for some time now. Like the whole world is struggling with inflation. America is facing hyperinflation.
China is facing deflation. Unlike the rest of the world, the prices of things there are going below factory prices, meaning the price at which a product is being manufactured. Secondly, the demand in China has reduced drastically. Household consumption in China has reached such a level that people are not buying goods there.
The government has to invest its own money so that people buy goods. The third thing we can say is that China's housing sector is in a big crisis and it has remained in that crisis for the last two-three years, where the government took all kinds of measures and gave stimulus packages, but China's housing sector or the real estate sector is not able to revive yet.
Yes, the Chinese government has recently released a package of $400 billion which has been released as help for the people in which the government is saying that you should buy appliances, electronic items and you will get funding for it from the government. China has reduced interest rates. So China is trying its best.
Somehow, inflation has gone down there and growth has also gone down. So China is trying to find a way to avoid it. But at present he does not seem to be getting that much help. And in such a situation, Mark Mobius' statement that if there is a regime change in China, it will be very good for the markets of China.
This is a really big statement. Yes, exactly. In fact, you might remember that in the last year also there were reports that in China, companies have built entire cities and they are blank, they are not standing there, they have become ghost cities and because of that, the banks which might have provided them loans are now in trouble, the situation is bad, so this could probably be a big reason, ah, in the context of the change of power of the Chinese President, absolutely absolutely, so sir, I have one more question on this, there is the tariff issue, Mark Movius has also raised this and on the one hand, the Iran-Israel war is going on.
What things are visible in it? Has Mark Movius put forward his views in this? No, absolutely, look at the recent tariff issue, if we talk about Iran, Israel and the US getting involved in this war, then an atmosphere of crisis has been created in the entire Middle East and through the Middle East in the entire world.
But just before that, you should understand that since January this year, the entire world was going through a different kind of uncertainty and that was of tariff. The entire tariff chaos was created by Trump in which reciprocal tariffs were imposed. 26% imposed on India. There was a long tug of war between America and China and till now no solution has been found between the two countries.
However, both America and China have reduced their tariffs by 115% each. But still America has 30% tariff on China and China has 10% tariff on America. Regarding the tariff, Mark Mobius has said that in this entire issue of tariff , the picture is gradually becoming clear that this was actually a strategy of America to bargain with the whole world and after that bargaining, things will gradually be seen settling down.
We will see America and other countries moving towards a realistic approach. So one thing Mark Mobius has to say about tariffs is this. But along with this, the new uncertainty or the crisis that has arisen in front of the entire world is the crisis of Iran or the Middle East, in which just two days ago America attacked their entire Fordow nuclear site.
After that, today again there were attacks on the Fordo site. Iran's media, the government TV, has mentioned this. Iran is firing missiles at Israel. Israel is firing missiles at Iran and today Israel has again attacked through its fighter planes. So, the crisis in the Middle East seems to be getting bigger and if you add to it the issue of the State of Hormuch, which is a narrow route which is completely controlled by Iran and the State of Hormuz holds 1/20% of the world's oil exports.
A big problem is arising regarding crude oil from there. Which includes India and other countries around the world, Rohit is also included. So this is an issue which is a problem for India also, in which the US and the UK have asked China to intervene in this matter and tell Iran not to close the Hormos pass.
There is also a danger that Iran will go into further isolation? Can a new war break out which is being talked about calming down? America has said that our concern was only about nuclear facilities. Our fight is not with Iran. So, what shape this Middle East crisis takes in front of the whole world in the next few times will be a big issue. So
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