저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 7월 16일 기준 경기·정책 뉴스 정리. 실업수당 신청 130만 건으로 대공황급 충격 지적, 상원의 추가 부양책(1,200달러 수표 등) 협상 지연 우려. 코로나 양성률 상승(미 전체 22%, 마이애미-데이드 30.5%)으로 일부 주 봉쇄 재개. 주식시장이 하락해야 트럼프가 부양책을 더 밀 것이라는 주장. 부동산·금리 관련 단편적 언급.
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hey everyone we Kevin here with your July 16th stimulus check and stimulus package update and now there is a new way to determine if you potentially have kovat up to a week before you would otherwise know when you get tested stat News reported that Ovid 19 patients were 27 times more likely than people who tested negative for the virus to have lost their sense of smell up to a week before actually getting diagnosed with kovat so if you want early answers as to whether or not you have Kovan all you have to do is walk into Congress and if you don't smell anything you probably have kovat because otherwise you'd smell a load of bull the Labor Department just reported 1.3 a million new jobless claims as part of our country starts the D opening process basically the closing back down just for relativity 1.3 million people filing for unemployment is like 3 Miami's going to file for unemployment in one week and 1.3 million is about twice as many jobless claims in just seven days as the great recessions worst week where we had around 600 65,000 filing for unemployment in the meantime Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is expected to unveil his next stimulus proposal on Monday or Tuesday there is a growing concern that Mitch plans to hardline negotiations and basically just stall between July 20th all the way up to August 7th to force Democrats into submission as they run the clock out which Nancy Pelosi has already called this bluff suggesting that well Mitch will just cancel recess well for right now at least we know that Republicans are looking for liability protections they're looking for maybe two pay above the normal unemployment and likely a $1200 stimulus check though we're not sure if that's going to get ratcheted down to a lower income or not there have been a lot of rumors about maybe ratcheting it down but that might be too complicated so for right now all we know is they're considering another stimulus check of some sort they're also looking at funding for schooling and possible credits and tax benefits like a payroll tax cut or a travel credit which really does seem a little during a pandemic both by the way Democrats and Republicans are suggesting tax cuts for the rich and wealthy Democrats included in their heroes Act lifting the limits on salt tax deductions which helps people with higher incomes or people who own a bunch of real estate in high property tax states and Republicans at the same time have suggested a capital gains holiday which in stocks might lead to some short-term buying and selling volatility as people trade positions to take advantage of some of this free tax money but the bigger issue might actually be real estate where inventory might flood the market and after all real estate moves slowly so a lot of people rushing to sell would not be very good for the real estate pricing but in terms of the market however interest rates are now below an average of 3% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan which is also pretty crazy so who knows maybe for those of you in the real estate investing course you might be able to pick up some really sweet deals coming up soon we'll see a lot more of those wedge deals if they do one of those capital gains holidays now as has been a theme of the rich get richer and to add insult to this well according to the Wall Street Journal Airbnb is now asking prior guests to send their landlords kindness cards which the New York Post sees as sparking outrage and it's not surprising because when you think about the messaging it seems a little tone deaf people in a pandemic should send potentially wealthy landlords who run Airbnb since most of them own their own properties some don't but most of them do the messaging just doesn't seem right let's help bail out the landlords who can get mortgage forbearance whereas most people especially tenants are getting screwed during this pandemic this messaging from Airbnb is almost as weird as the latest Golden Corral TV commercials promoting their all-you-can-eat buffet in the midst of a pandemic yes let's have eight year-olds snot bomb the utensils at the breakfast bar so that grandma can get her biscuit gravy and co feed anyway this is starting to sound just as tone-deaf as a new program announced by our government it's called quote literally quote find something new which basically signals to you that you should just get your old job and forget your old skills and you know what just start over that's not what we want to hear in the midst of a pandemic now I'll give it to them the website does seem somewhat useful and functional but I can't help but wonder why would somebody put something together with this kind of title in the middle of the pandemic signaling hey lost your job don't worry forget all the experience you've learned and gained over the last twenty years or ten years work in whatever forget all that start over that's fine when you're in your 20s but it's a little harder when you're 30 40 or 50 and have kids anyway the next coronavirus release package will likely be influenced by the latest resurgence of Kovan 19 cases because surely since Congress decided to wait and see wait and see should go both ways things get better maybe they do less things get worse maybe they should do more The Wall Street Journal suggested the best type of stimulus would actually be something that's a little bit more on autopilot so we don't get stuck in this log jam of a stinky Congress anymore some sort of autopilot stimulus that would scale with unemployment or GDP there are many ideas for this for example of unemployment is high and GDP is low maybe we get recurring stimulus checks until we cross a certain threshold or that number goes down so far the only person to suggest such a thing has with real leadership power has been a Democrat Chuck Schumer and he suggested such a plan for the unemployment pay where unemployment might be extended at $600 but as unemployment Falls that $600 boost gets reduced in $100 increments until we reach about 5 to 6 percent unemployment now I know that cases are up because well in part testing is up right but it's not only a testing increase issue that we're seeing here positivity rates are up substantially as a country we're trying to get positivity rates below 10% and that means that one out of every ten people has tested positive for kovat and that's sort of the goal is trying to get that number under 1 and 10 so that less positivity happens we could still test more but we want positivity to go down and I think we want mental positivity to go up because there's enough negativity but I think y'all know what I mean as of July 1st we've been at 22 percent positive that means out of every 100 people 22 tests positive and in miami-dade what's now seen as the wuhan of the United States is testing positive at a rate of 30 point 5 percent that means two to three out of every 10 people are positive when they go to a testing station this spike in positivity rates is helping lead to the decision to do p'n parts of Texas in California and Florida California and Florida by the way are leading one third of the spike in cases and the only thing that California in Florida I think have in common are the fact that I lived in them for about half my life this by the way is causing the stock market major chest pain which is good for two reasons one it means you're more likely to well be induced to get that 're more likely to want t but let's be real here the real benefit of a declining stock market is and has to do with Donald Trump the stock market is extremely important to him the stock market is Trump's barometer for success and many of us are and have been kind of confused like why is the stock market doing so well but the economy is doing so poorly well the more kovat intensifies the more the stock market in my opinion is likely to turn red that is people are more likely to take their money out of the stock market and we'll see that sort of ocean of the stock market slowly decline the more the president sees this ocean of the stock market declining and the Dow going down and the S&P going down the more in my opinion the president is likely to push for additional stimulus see the president really evaluates his performance using the stock market he doesn't believe in the polls especially after 538 you can't really blame the president for questioning the polls and it's totally debatable how much his success actually relates to the stock market but it doesn't matter if you're a democrat or republican if he believes that his success is correlated with the stock market then the best thing for more stimulus happening is the stock market going down because it's going to make Donald Trump feel like he's not doing as good of a job and it's going to in my opinion make him more likely to push for more stimulus the reverse is also true when the stock market was soaring all we heard from Republicans was hey you know what things are good word of e everything's fine the numbers are getting better maybe we don't even need another stimulus package it's only been recently as the stock market has been more volatile we've seen a few more red days than usual and cases are going up then all of a sudden we're starting to hear more positive talk about the next rounds of stimulus this is very important the cares Act and the feds money printing has done wonders for the stock market which did make Donald Trump and Republicans feel victorious but folks that adrenaline shot has run its course it's time for a new one speaking of course I have courses in the links down below there's also a coupon code that you can use it's called summer fun anyway keep an eye on stocks the more red they are the more likely we are to see a larger stimulus package in other news a Walmart is now requiring masks along with target who just announced minutes ago that they will also require masks starting on August 1st so stay tuned for more viral videos from Carens via tick-tock to continue the insanity of 2020 a state backed group of Russian hackers is apparently trying to steal our kovat 19 research the menacing group is called cozy bear and rumor has it the hackers got in but couldn't find any research we're just as clueless as they are this comes a day after Elon Musk and others on Twitter fell victim to a Bitcoin hacking scheme the meantime White House trade advisor Peter Navarro a ripped apart a dr.
Falchi in an opinion piece yesterday this opinion piece was in the USA today apparently wasn't approved by the White House but I have a feeling things are going to be get a bit awkward when Peter Navarro runs into two doctor found she at the White House again in fact I have the piece right here see here is the USA Today and it's just this small little segment here but in this small little segment Peter Navarro was able to say things like dr.
foutch she has good bedside manner with the public but he has been wrong about everything I have interacted with him on and he ended off by saying so when you asked me whether I listen to doctor foul cheese advice my only answer is only with skepticism and caution whoo scathing at the same time Facebook is considering banning political ads say people quote familiar with the company's thinking you know that kind of sounds like Congress it's like they literally sit down in a meeting and say all right let's discuss the banning of political ads just like Congress goes and goes hey let's discuss recurring stimulus checks and then they kind of just look at each other and pause ha ha ha break out and laughter a bit and then some dude comes out and goes yeah yeah we talked about it mm-hmm there you go that's the news for the day it's starting to feel loose in this country is just like the answer we got when we asked our parents mom dad where do babies come from it's a bunch of feel-good crap but it ain't reality but hey at least the market is rent today and that makes me slightly happier because I believe that a lagging stock market will not only create buying opportunities for us to actually buy stocks but it will also convince Republicans that no all is not back to normal the economy still needs help and as usual this is not me taking sides try my best to report episode
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