저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 고금리 환경에서도 버핏식 원칙(우량 기업을 본질가치보다 싸게 매수, 장기 투자)은 유효하며, 금리 변화는 주가 목표 평가에만 영향을 준다. 금리 배경: 2021년 9월 미국 10년물 금리는 약 1.25%였고 나스닥은 15,000pt 이상이었다. 2022년 10월 기준 물가상승률은 8% 이상, 10년물 금리는 약 4%로 3배 상승했다. 시장 충격: 나스닥은 고점 대비 약 35% 하락했고 일부 기술주는 50~70% 하락했다. 주택시장은 평균 모기지 금리가 3%에서 7%로 올라 냉각됐다. 버핏의 금리 이론: 국채와 주식은 모두 미래 현금흐름의 할인가치다. 기준금리가 오르면 주식의 적정가치가 낮아지며, 버핏은 금리를 주식에 작용하는 '중력'에 비유했다. 예시 계산: 주당 연 현금흐름 10달러, 15% 성장 가정 시 할인율 6%에서 주가 224달러, 4%에서 259달러, 1%에서 326달러, 9%에서 182달러, 12%에서 149달러, 15%에서 124달러다. 현금흐름은 동일하고 할인율만 바뀌었다. 투자 교훈 1: 금리 상승이 투자 원칙을 바꾸지는 않으며, 우량 기업을 본질가치 이하에서 사는 것이 핵심이고 바뀌는 것은 적정 매수가뿐이다. 투자 교훈 2: 단기 변동성을 감내해야 한다. 주가는 일일 단위로 예측이 어렵고 10~30% 하락도 발생할 수 있으므로 포트폴리오는 주 1회 또는 2주 1회만 점검하는 것이 도움이 된다. 투자 교훈 3: 장기 투자가 핵심이다. 1980년 초 금리가 역사상 최고 수준일 때가 최근 100년 중 주식을 사기 좋은 시기 중 하나였고, 1980년 S&P500에 1,000달러를 투자했다면 이후 10만 달러 이상이 되었다. 버핏의 코카콜라 사례: 소비 성장, 시장점유율 확대, 저렴한 가격 대비 높은 만족이 확실히 알 수 있고 중요한 요소이며, 환율과 단기 금리는 장기 부의 결정 요인이 아니라고 봤다. 진행자는 금리 상승기에도 장기 관점에서 우량주를 분할 매수하는 전략을 제시했다.
다듬은 글
Last year, interest rates were at historic lows, and the stock and real estate markets were soaring. In September 2021, the yields—a fancy way of saying interest rates—on 10-year government bonds were around 1.25%. The Nasdaq, which focuses on technology stocks, was above 15,000 points, having more than doubled since its lows in March 2020.
And the housing market was probably hotter than ever. In some cities, lines for tours literally stretched out the door and around the corner. The average price of a house in the United States rose almost 20% in the last year. And some particularly heated markets rose by more than 30% to 40%. But, boy, how quickly things change in the world of investing.
The biggest driver of this change has been runaway inflation. The inflation rate here in the United States has exceeded 8%. A level not seen in 40 years. To control this inflation, the US Federal Reserve was forced to raise interest rates at an unprecedented pace. The yield on 10-year government bonds has tripled and now hovers around 4%.
We'll talk more about this in the video, but it sent shockwaves through the stock and real estate markets. The Nasdaq fell about 35% from its highs, with certain tech stocks that were previously soaring dropping 50%, 60%, and even 70%. The once-booming housing market has cooled, with the average mortgage rate rising from 3% to 7%, showing no signs of slowing down.
Well, with all of that as background, the question I want to answer in this video arises. How should we invest during a period of high interest rates? To answer this million-dollar question, we'll turn to the investment icon, Warren Buffett. Having bought his first stock at the tender age of 11, Buffett has been investing in the stock market for over 80 years.
He invested during periods when interest rates hovered around 0%, up to times when they were above 15%. So, it's safe to say he's been through many periods of high interest rates and , let's say, he understands quite a bit about investing. But first, we need to understand why interest rates are important.
Let's listen to Buffett's explanation, and don't forget have n't already, because all the support motivates me to keep working to make these videos for you. You guys are great, and now, here's Buffett. And if you buy a 30-year government bond, it comes with a bunch of coupons attached. It used to be like that, now it's all electronic, but there were a lot of coupons, and the coupon says 3% or whatever it says, and you know that's what you'll get back in 30 years, and then they'll give you your money back.
What is a stock? A stock is the same kind of thing. She has a lot of coupons. The problem is that they haven't printed the numbers on them yet, and it's your job as an investor to print those numbers. If these figures say 10%, and most American companies earn more than 10% on tangible assets. If they say 10%, that bond is worth much more money than a bond that says 3%.
But if that government bond goes to 10%, that changes the value of that participation certificate that you are actually buying. You were buying it when you acquired it. Whether it's at General Motors or Berkshire Hathaway or any other company, you're buying something that, over time, will pay you back.
It might take a long time in Berkshire's case, but the numbers will be bigger. And these are the coupons, and it's up to you, as the investor, to decide which ones you think those coupons will be, because that's what you're buying. And you 're buying the discounted value of that, which, uh, and the higher the standard goes, and the standard is government bonds, the less attractive these other bonds seem.
That's it, and that's just basic economics. So, Buffett did a great job explaining the theory behind how interest rates impact the value of a stock. However, I want to complement his explanation with a tangible example to really demonstrate how changes in interest rates affect stock prices. As Buffett said, the real value of any stock is how much money it will generate over its lifetime, discounted to the present day using an interest rate.
Now, this explanation might seem super complicated, but believe me, the math behind it is actually super simple. So, let's say we have a stock and we want to calculate its intrinsic value. Based on our analysis , we believe the stock can generate $10 per share in cash flow in the first year and grow at a rate of 15 % per year for 10 years.
Therefore, in this example, we could also sell this stock for $150 at the end of the 10th year. This means that, at the end of the 10th year we own the stock, we will have received the $35.18 in cash flow generated by the stock, plus the $150 from the sale. Therefore, this means that in the 10th year we received a total of US$185.18.
Okay, now that we have the future cash flows that the stock will generate, we only have one last step to calculate the stock's value. We need to discount these future cash flows using an interest rate. And this is where we really see how interest rates move stock prices. So, let's assume we have an interest rate of 6%.
Using the net present value function in Excel, we found that our stock is worth $224. Now, let's see what happens as we change the interest rate used to discount the cash flows. During 2020 and 2021, interest rates plummeted to historic lows. The stock market soared, and we'll see why. See what happens when we lower our interest rate from 6% to 4%.
Our stock price soars to $259. Notice how all cash flows remain the same. The company is neither growing faster nor making more money. The only difference is that we lowered the interest rate from 6% to 4%. Let's take it a step further and lower the interest rate to 1%. This causes the value of our stock to skyrocket to $326.
Interest rates are extremely powerful in impacting stock values. Notice how our stock increased almost 50% in value just from the drop in fees from 6% to 1%. However, interest rates have the opposite effect when they increase, and this impact can be just as dramatic , but this time in a negative way.
Let's see what happens as we increase the interest rate in our example. Let's go from 6% to 9% and see what happens. At 9%, the stock price drops to $182. And if the interest rate increases to 12%, that value falls even further, to $149. And just to be safe, let's see what happens if we raise the interest rate to 15% .
Raising interest rates to 15% brings the stock price down to $124. That's what Buffett means when he says interest rates are like gravity for stocks. As interest rates rise, they pull the value of stocks down. And that brings us to the billion-dollar question. Now that we know the enormous impact that rising interest rates can have on stock prices, how should we invest?
Let's hear what Buffett said when asked how he considers interest rates or foreign currencies in his investment strategy. We are always trying to figure out what to focus on in terms of what is knowable and what is important. Well, currency may be important, but we don't think it's very knowable. Other things are not important, but they are knowable.
But what really matters is what is knowable and important. What is known and important about Coca-Cola is the fact that more and more people are consuming soft drinks around the world, as they have been doing year after year, and that Coca-Cola is gaining market share, and that the product is extraordinarily inexpensive in relation to the pleasure it provides to people.
Back in the 1930s, when I was a kid, I used to buy, you know, six Coca-Cola bottles for a quarter of a dollar and sell each one for a nickel. It was a 6.5-ounce bottle for a nickel at Coca-Cola. And you can buy a 12-ounce can now on sale at the supermarket for not much more than double the price per ounce compared to the 1930s.
You won't find many products where this kind of value proposition has developed over the years. So, that's the kind of thing we focus on, and interest rates and exchange rates, however important they may be in the short term, won't really determine whether we get rich over time. The best time to buy stocks was actually in recent years, you know, when interest rates were sky- high and it seemed very safe to put your money in treasury bonds at four...
well, actually, the base rate reached 21.5%. But you could invest money at enormous rates in the early 1980s. And as attractive as that seemed, it was exactly the wrong thing to do. It was better to buy stocks back then because, when interest rates changed, their values changed even more. So, I was able to identify three major lessons from studying Buffett and how we should invest during this period of rising interest rates.
The biggest lesson is that, according to Buffett, rising interest rates shouldn't really impact how you invest. Buffett still buys large companies that are run by excellent management teams and that are being sold at a discount to their intrinsic value. The only thing that really changes is the price Buffett expects to pay for those shares.
This brings us back to the previous example, where we saw how different interest rates impact the value of a stock. Remember Buffett's phrase: "Interest rates act like gravity on stocks." As interest rates rise or fall, you should adjust what you consider a fair price for any given stock. And the second piece of advice is that you need to be comfortable with short-term volatility in stock prices.
Volatility is just a fancy word to describe how much a stock's price fluctuates from one day to the next. During periods of increasing uncertainty about interest rates and the economy in general, these movements in stock prices become even more dramatic. Just look at a chart of the S&P 500 index over the last year.
See how much the stock market fluctuated. I agree with Buffett that it's impossible to predict daily stock price movements . A stock you own could drop 3% tomorrow for no apparent reason . Stocks can fall 10, 20, or even 30% for reasons that don't make sense to those who focus on the fundamentals of the business.
A practical tip for dealing well with short-term volatility is to check your stock portfolio only once a week or every two weeks. This helps you ignore some of the short-term volatility in stock prices. And that brings us to lesson number three, and wow, this one is very important. Invest for the long term .
Buffett said that periods of high interest rates can be some of the best times to buy stocks. In the early 1980s, interest rates were at their highest levels in United States history. The actions were being massacred as a result. People would say you'd be crazy to buy stocks during that period. However, this turned out to be one of the best periods in the last 100 years to buy stocks.
An investment of $1,000 in the S&P 500 in 1980 would have turned into more than $100,000 by the beginning of this year. This simply demonstrates the power of long-term investing. So, that's it. Be sure to like this video and subscribe to the Investor Center, because my goal is . We'll talk again soon.
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