저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 대장주 팔란티어와 Arm 홀딩스를 매출 성장률, 영업이익률, 영업현금흐름, 밸류에이션 기준으로 비교. 매출 성장은 두 기업 비슷하고 영업이익률은 팔란티어(8.4%)가 Arm(3.6%)보다 높으며 개선 추세도 뚜렷. 현금흐름은 주식보상 영향으로 두 기업 모두 영업이익률보다 높음. 선행 PER은 팔란티어 63배, Arm 79배로 팔란티어가 더 저렴하다고 평가해 장기 투자자에게 팔란티어를 더 나은 AI주로 제시.
다듬은 글
all right if you've been following the stock market in 2023 and 2024 you probably know that AI stocks have been on a tear and so investors are trying to get in on the next hottest AI stock because Nvidia has already exploded they're looking for that other AI stock well arm Holdings and paler Technologies are two excellent AI stocks that are benefiting from the increasing effectiveness of AI but which one of these two is the better AI stock to buy that's what I'll answer in this video here I'll compare paler Technologies and arm holding stocks on revenue o and finally I'll look at the valuation and look at how expensive they are on a forward price to earnings basis to determine which one is the better AI stock to buy today so let's start with Revenue we have a longer history of revenue for paler Technologies than we do for arm Holdings given that arm Holdings has been a more recent IPO compared to palen here what we do notice with both of them is solid Revenue growth arm Holdings has increased its trailing 12 month Revenue to 3.23 three billion and it's growing faster than paler which has grown its Revenue to 2.33 billion up from around 800 million in 2020 paler Technologies recent strategy of going in and having boot camps for the Enterprise segment demonstrating its capability has been working well to secure new deals with commercial Enterprises of course palen's history has been with strong traction with domestic North American US Government primarily business that part of its business has been doing really well what palente needed for that next driver of growth was commercial business enterprises given that paler arguably well not even arguably it's the best inclass in the AI software space and so of course every business would love to have palente service the question has been on price can they afford it and when paler comes into your business and demonstrates how good they are demonstrates their return on investment it convinces businesses that they can afford paler because of what they're going to get in return so that's working really well that could draw growth for paler arm Holdings meanwhile has been growing its Revenue nicely somewhere around the 20% range depending on the quarter next year it's forecasting roughly 20% and then for several years ahead it's forecasting that it can grow Revenue at roughly 20% per year as more and more businesses are utilizing arm Holdings patented technology to create the products in their Tech category arm Holdings holding these patents can generate licensing and royalty Revenue that comes with lucrative profitability longer term so they both have excellent prospects in terms of Revenue growth going forward I would say very very similar it would be hard to pick a winner between these two on Revenue growth over the next 5 years I would say they're going to be neck and neck on Revenue growth over the next 5 years the next metric I wanted to compare is on operating profit margin and paler holds the lead here and has the better Trend you'll notice here paler is operating profit margin at 8.3 8.43% is better than arm Holdings at 3.62% but also paler has been improving its operating profit margin rapidly over the last several years the company undertook a solid cost control measure that has kept its cost under control while Revenue has grown although in the near term I'm watching closely because paler said they're going to hire more folks in order to fulfill this strategy with going into businesses and operating the boot camps it's gaining traction and paler feels it needs more people to fulfill on this opportunity so I'm watching to make sure they continue this trend of higher operating profit margin as Revenue grows I'm relatively confident that they will be able to achieve this because they've demonstrated skill in this regard over the last several years so I'm relatively confident that they can achieve this metric arm Holdings meanwhile will also likely improve s its investments in research and development offer economies of scale Revenue grows its cost stay relatively flat and will expand its profit margin longer term although in the near term they may remain relatively low in their operating profitability now cash flow from operations to sales is much higher for both of these companies because they use significant sums of stock-based compensation which is a non-cash expense this goes in your cash flow statement as a non-cash expense because you have to account for stock options and stock grants Etc on your income statement as an expense you have to account for the value the fair value of that option that you're granting your employee but since it's an option and since it's a in the form of stocks or Equity ownership in the business it's not actual cash going out from your company so it doesn't show up in your cash flow statement and so that makes cash flow from operations for paler and arm much higher than profitability look at the numbers here 33% for arm 28% for paler much higher than their operating profit margins which are are still in the single digits and relatively low you could see that much higher but also they're both demonstrating solid upward Trends here in this metric paler has moved up to 28% up from - 25% arm has moved up to 34% up from around 28% so they're both moving up and to the right which is the direction you want to see when you're considering an investment in a business especially a growth business and these are not cheap stocks they are on the expensive side of stocks in the market today but they are also growth stocks and when you're investing in growth stocks they for the most part will trade more expensively than non-growth businesses palen here trading at a forward priced to earnings of 63 cheaper than the forward pric earnings of 79 for arm Holdings so given the metrics we looked at they were similar in Revenue remember we highlighted Revenue growth is likely to be similar over the next 5 years paler had the better operating profit margin and the better Trend in the metric paler was close in the cash flow from operations and had the better Trend in the metric while arm Holdings was better in terms of cash flow from operations but the trend was not that distinguishable from paler here so given those primary metrics we considered and given the competitive advantages and the industries that they Opera in respectively I don't feel arm Holdings has earned a premium valuation over paler I don't feel it should be a more expensive stock and so in this comparison paler being the cheaper one if I was to pick between these two AI businesses today I would say paler is the better AI stock to buy







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