My Nvidia Stock Price Prediction for 2024 | NVDA Stock Analysis

요약 보기

엔비디아 실적이 기대를 상회해 2025~2026 EPS 전망이 상향됐다. 현재 포워드 EPS 약 36달러, 포워드 PE 38.1배, 주가 약 131달러 기준으로 연말 목표가를 산출. 기본 시나리오 PE 40~45배 가정 시 주가 145~155달러 전망. 포워드 PE 25배면 90달러, 48배면 173달러 등 시나리오 제시. 추정치와 가정에 기반한 분석이라 부정확할 수 있다고 명시.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. all right everyone so much has changed since I made my last Nvidia stock price prediction for 2024 the company has released earnings that beat expectations meaningfully earnings per share look like they're going to be much better than we thought this year and next year and the growth in the AI Market is much better than we anticipated even though the expectations were already robust for AI build outs of data centers so I'll review the latest factors that have changed and update my buy recommendation the stock price recommendation for Nvidia stock by the end of 2024 at Mumu it wi for using my link one of my favorite features of the mumu app is the stock screener let me show you how it works so you all know I like to look for companies with a high operating profit margin so in the mumu app I can search for stocks that have an operating profit margin I'm looking for so in the screener I add a filter and I could type in here operating profit margin and I I prefer the trailing 12-month operating margin I click add and then it gives me a box here to show me what percent I'm looking for let's say I'm looking for companies that have a specifically 20 to 21% operating profit margin I type that in and you can see the list of companies that come up including some popular companies like Caterpillar and AT&T now let's get back to this important financial analysis okay so one of the factors I look at when I'm mak the fiscal year ahead now I'll make a note that nvidia's fiscal year is one year ahead of the calendar year that means its current year is 2025 and its next fiscal year is 2026 I know it's confusing but companies are allowed to have fiscal years that are different from calendar years so since I'm using the forward to earnings ratio ne year ahead so I'm going to use the 2026 expectations for nvidia's earnings per share and you'll notice that its earnings per share expectations for 2026 have been steadily increasing over the last 90 days it started out that investorought its earnings per share would be $30.1 then they slightly revised it lower to $28.88 for 60 days ago I should say 84 then it was back up again to $ 3210 3 32 days ago and 7 days ago it increased to $35.90 before now being at $36 per share in Split adjusted split adjusted earnings per share expectations for next year so that's one of the factors I'm going to use the next Factor I'm going to use is its forward price to earnings ratio currently it's trading at a forward PE of 38.1 that's up meaningfully from where it started the year closer to a forward PE of 20 or 25 now I'm also going to need Nvidia stock price which is currently at $131 per share this too is up meaningfully from where it started the year at closer to $45 per share this is on the split adjusted basis now following the company's 10 for one stock split okay so now that we have all the major factors we can begin our analysis and stock price prediction for the end of 2024 so my 2024 price Target as you see here so if everything else stays the same meaning its earnings per share expectations for the next fiscal year for eps4 fiscal year for NVIDIA fiscal year 2026 calendar year 2025 again it's confusing so I'll say that multiple times $360 and the forward PE 38.1 as we saw from the charts if all else stays the same then nvidia's stock price could end the year at $137 per share which would be only a roughly 4% increase from the $132 per share it's currently trading at clearly I think nvidia's performance is going to be better than that given that I have Nvidia placed on my list of top 24 stocks to buy right now so one of the factors I expect will increase is the forward price to earnings ratio if that forward PE increases to 45 then nvidia's stock price could be $162 per share by the end of the year if the forward price to earnings Rises to 48 the stock price could rise to 173 per share admittedly this is a scenario I don't think is very likely it's not my base case scenario for the forward price the earnings to increase to 48 I think if the stock price were to increase to $173 per share I think the majority of that increase will come as a result of increased earnings per share expectations but it's not all great news things could things could get worse and the forward PE could fall to 25 and and in that case nvidia's stock price could fall to $90 per share so in my scenarios I've considered here the four scenarios the stock price could range from $90 per share to $173 per share that's a wide range of outcomes to be sure where do I think is the most likely outcome for NVIDIA share price I think it's a forward price to earnings ratio between 40 and 45 and so I think the stock price by the end of the year would be somewhere in the range of 145 to 155 by the end of the year which would be a nice increase from the current share price of $131 188 now things could be much better than I'm predicting and things could be much worse than I'm predicting as you noticed I used a lot of estimates and assumptions in this calculation and estimates and assumptions are bound to be inaccurate that's why they're called estimates and assumptions we use our best case we use our best financial analysis to determine our base case and our base case forecasts so all that being said my price target for Nvidia stock for 2024 could end up in the range of $145 per share to $155 per share