저자: 미상 · 외국인
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StoneCo(STNE) 분석 영상이다. 결론: 주가는 고점 대비 약 85% 하락 상태지만 사업 자체는 고성장·고수익이며 밸류에이션도 매력적이어서 긍정적으로 본다. 주가·배경: 당일 40% 이상 반등했으나 최근 고점 대비 여전히 약 85% 하락. 과거 고점 회복 시 수백% 상승 여력이 있다고 언급. 버크셔 해서웨이와 캐시 우드의 ARK 펀드(ARKF)가 보유 중. 사업 구조: 금융서비스(가맹점 결제 처리, 브라질 중심 merchant acquiring)와 소프트웨어(소상공인용 재고관리·온라인 판매 솔루션) 두 축. 실적: 결제 거래액 4분기 54% 증가, 매출 전년 대비 87% 성장, 과거 조정 순이익률 35.7%. 2021년 2분기 대규모 손실 후 손익분기 근처로 회복. 신용(대출) 상품을 너무 빠르게 확대한 것이 문제였으며 경영진이 이를 인정. 가이던스: 2022년 1분기 매출 성장률 113~119%(링크(Linx) 인수 영향 제외 시 약 70%). 수익성 개선에 집중하겠다고 밝힘. 밸류에이션: 2020말~2021초 PS 40~50배 고점 대비 현재 약 3~4배 매출. 발언자는 이를 매우 매력적인 셋업으로 평가. 목표 시나리오: 2022년 성장률 60~80%, 이후 연 20~30% 성장, 기말 PER 15~20배 가정 시 상승 여력 300% 이상(가정적 밸류에이션). 리스크: 브라질의 높은 인플레이션·실업률·법치 불확실성, 신용·선불(prepayment) 사업의 자본 집약성, 자본시장 경색 시 자금 조달 리스크. 자본시장이 얼어붙으면 리스크가 커질 수 있음. 대안 비교: 다른 후보로 5% 배당수익률, PER 11배의 더 분산된 소비재 안정 기업을 언급하며 기회비용을 고민 중. 최종적으로 STNE 매수 여부는 아직 확정하지 않았으며 두 종목 모두 보유할 수도 있다고 언급.
다듬은 글
round round get around i get around yeah get around round round i get around and that's the question that shareholders are wondering about stoneco stne stock will stonestock get around to its prior high which might suggest several hundred percent upside from here something like a 6x plus from here this is stock owned by both deep value investor warren buffett's berkshire hathaway as well as kathy wood and her innovative arc etfs i believe arkf for fintech etf so the question is where does stoneco go from here what do i think about its valuation what did they even do we'll cover it all in this video and hype mission focus channel trying to find you exceptional tunes exceptional stocks unrivaled investments and if you enjoy this channel and uh in yet own stock in stone stne so stone is having a marvelous day up over 40 percent just today but the reality is that despite today's rally it's still down something like 85 percent from its recent high now that would suggest that if you do see a recovery back to that price you have hundreds of percent upside now part of that price was because it had a very lofty valuation so let's see towards the end of this video where i talk about what do i think stoneco can do in the years ahead but looking at stone right now really the business really comes down to two different segments you have financial services where they're effectively enabling merchants to accept payments so a lot of this business is called merchant acquiring this in brazil another aspect is software where they're providing critical solutions for small merchants to run their business maybe like an inventory management or even just being able to sell something online now historically they've grown at very fast rate this isn't just a flyby you know just a random idea that just suddenly took off or a spack that's unprofitable and you go hey you know how come the stock's down significantly this is a very real business that's grown quite significantly over time with literally millions of active clients using their payment gateway and you can see the payment volume has grown quite significantly up 54 in the fourth quarter and keep in mind that payments as they have more and more payments going through them they get a cut of that and that drives their revenue and as they take let's say a higher cut they're going to see even better revenue growth so you're looking at 87 year-over-year revenue growth which is exceptional now these they've also had historically very very high profitability 35.7 adjusted net profit margins which is quite high now they did have some problems in 2021 you look at a sizeable loss in the second quarter and more recently closer to break even now this did cause some uncertainty for the business now part of this was because of some payment solutions that they have credit solutions but what does management do do they own up or do they just complete completely sort of hide under a stone or just you know ignore it what do they do they call out saying 2021 was an unsatisfying year for stone we executed well in some areas but faced challenges in others we believe our market opportunity is huge and merits an aggressive approach but we tried to do too much last year and did not execute as well as we would have liked our aggressive commercial approach combined with the challenging macro environment impacted our profitability so saying our results weren't as good as they could have been we saw a problem with our profitability we saw a hit to what our profits could have been in credit we ramped up our offering quickly but did not manage it well okay so i got to give management a lot of credit here because they're they're owning up they're showing some real characters here saying we goofed we we want to be aggressive because this is a huge opportunity but we moved too fast with some of our solutions like credit offering i did a whole other video talking about stone in that i talked about some of the the problems with their credit solutions and that's part of the reason why the stock did take a hit but i like seeing the management saying yeah this was unsatisfying and uh we didn't we didn't do great if you're wondering why i'm saying unsatisfying that way it's it's teddy kgb that's that's why i'm a fan of rounders um so while stone's credit solution was a real snafu in 2021 that did partially cause investors to panic sell the stock it seems like management has learned a lot from this experience and they're quickly moving forward and you know look that's the trick in life you got to keep moving forward if you get knocked down and so the reality is this doesn't look like it's going to be a lethal blow they're even talking about how since you know effectively this this legacy credit portfolio has been frozen despite you know sending out several billion reai they are expecting to effectively get all their money back and this was a real problem because you can see their portfolio is valued around 850 million reai of which they're reserving about 500 million in bad debt so this was highly problematic portfolio but if you step back and realize wow this core business is still growing quite significantly you have record high net ads in terms of new micro small and medium merchants and you know this merchant base is growing significantly over time and not only is it growing nicely but you see you know very strong record volumes across their business and they're getting a higher take rate because of the value that they they add now management part of the reason why the stock's doing so well is management is guiding to really strong continued growth in 2022 you're looking at 113 to 119 percent growth year over year in their next in their first quarter 2022 now it's around 70 if you exclude the the impact from their links acquisition which was in software but overall very strong growth they're talking about prof strong profitability and they're saying look we're going to be focusing on improving margins this is what management you know this is what shareholders like to see especially given the fact that if you just look at their most recent results and you annualize it you're looking at very strong growth so how should we think about stone's valuation normally i do a quick plug about unrivaled investing and how if you're looking for a community of investors looking for potential multibaggers you might want to check it out click join the journey i'll skip that full plug and let's dive right in because i think you've heard it before and so looking at stoneco stone's valuation is down so significantly over time now it arguably did get too frothy in you know 20 the end of 2020 the beginning of 2021 around 40 50 time sales that is just really frothy territory and generally stocks in that territory have a rough go of it now however it's trading in arguably half the valuation that it was during the covet panic uh you know coveted pandemic in in march subsequently things were recovered during you know the response to covet but really when things really you know started going south you saw the stock prices just dropped so significantly it was trading around high single digits now it's half of that and so looking at their business i love their software and merchant acquirer business that said they have been leaning more into sort of banking type solutions financial services that are much more capital intensive and require access to the capital markets and occasionally their own balance sheet and so this does make me a little less comfortable because hey if you're in the business you're saying hey we are a merchant acquirer enabling merchants to accept credit card payment or accepting payments of different sorts that is can be a very lucrative business and they've shown that already and that's been a hyper growth business but they're layering on banking services effectively to sort of round out their offering and to grow even faster and those banking services can result in them saying hey we'll provide cash to all these merchants maybe some prepayment maybe for their credit card portfolio and that has been a source of problem in 2021 and it's a huge capital use for their business and so that's what i look at you know with this business where they're saying hey you know our adjusted free cash flow was nearly break even for the year now they did do some you know smart investments that management talks about management talks about hey we sort of went heavy on buying inventory in the fourth quarter because we're not so sure what the supply chain looks like in 2022 we want to make sure we're able to continue to grow really well and we want to make sure our physical point of sale units we have plenty of them for merchants so i think that's a smart move in terms of seeing a loss in the fourth quarter but you know broadly what you're looking at in 2021 was a huge investment in prepayment cash needs continued huge investment in the fourth quarter 2021 and so that is you know this makes the business trickier because then you have to find other counterparties to effectively sell receivables or issue debt and you know whenever you're sort of relying on others with a business model it makes me a little bit more uncomfortable because you're effectively saying yes as long as the capital markets are working and as long as we can sell receivables or as long as we can issue debt it won't be a problem but someday if the capital markets really tighten up you might be stuck holding the bag and do you want to have that credit risk and that does sort of increase the risk with stonecode that i am mindful of but overall looking at the situation i really like the setup here you have a collapsed stock price hyper growth profitable business and a very very reasonable valuation at around three to four time sales i argue i would love to hear you comment below about companies that are profitable growing at their rate at three to four time sales you won't find very many i think this is a great setup for potentially huge returns in the coming years in one this is my upside potential framework that i'm looking at and in one upside scenario you could see over 300 upside now this is a hypothetical valuation so of course the stock price can go higher and lower as it depends on the execution and sentiment you could see what a huge impact execution had on the company this past year another key aspect investors need to consider is around country specific risks specifically brazil you have uncertainty around inflation unemployment and rule of law but broadly looking at this this company did report much higher margins in the past so i think i'm being conservative here seeing 20 saying 20 to 25 growth if you annualize their for their fourth quarter or their first quarter results you are looking at somewhere between you know 60 60 percent growth maybe higher you know they're they're guiding to like 115 growth for the first quarter so i'm penciling at 60 to 80 i'm saying in ensuing years maybe 20 to 30 percent and an end multiple 15 times to 20 times partly to account for the the very specific you know geo you know aspect the geography of being in brazil and you know you do have this uncertainty around high inflation high unemployment and potentially even the rule of law but broadly i look at this i like what i'm seeing i have i have not yet pulled the trigger unrivaled investing journey subscribers will find out if i do pull the trigger but i'm very very tempted to partly the reason what's holding me back is i'm looking at another company i'm tempted to call it out as my potential multibagger this month that has broader geographic diversification is much more of a consumer stable type business five percent dividend yield trading at 11 times you know earnings so that does look really compelling to me because i'm i'm thinking oh man this business can re-rate maybe 15 times and maybe get that five percent plus five percent growth so i like you know thinking about the different setups it really just comes down to opportunity cost you know what do you think but maybe i'll ultimately own both we'll see um if this video has been helpful for you talking about stoneco a little beach boys introduction if you enjoyed this video please make and thank you so much for tuning in
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