저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏의 버크셔해서웨이가 옥시덴털 페트롤리엄(OXY)에 대한 투자를 확대했다는 점을 근거로, 고유가가 상당 기간 유지될 것이라는 진행자의 판단이 이어진다. 버크셔는 최근 약 3천만 주를 추가 매수했고, 13G 보고상 지분은 약 1억 1,400만 주(지분율 약 11.2%)로 제시된다. 우선주 100억 달러와 워런트 관련 옵션(약 50억 달러 규모)을 합하면 명목 투자액은 약 150억 달러다. 주가 상승 이전에도 옥시덴털은 2021년 약 80억 달러의 잉여현금흐름을 창출했으며, 경영진 발언을 단순 적용하면 WTI 1달러 변동당 연 약 2억 500만 달러의 현금흐름 변화가 있다고 설명된다. 유가가 배럴당 76달러에서 124달러로 오른 점을 반영하면 잉여현금흐름이 150~200억 달러 수준까지 늘 수 있다는 추정이다. 발행주식과 워런트를 감안한 시가총액은 약 630억 달러(주당 약 60달러)로 제시되며, 이를 잉여현금흐름 기준 3~4배로 보고 있다. 부채 상환과 자사주 매입이 이뤄지면 주주 수익률이 약 20%, 나아가 자사주 매입 비중 확대 가능성까지 언급된다. 다만 진행자는 자신이 옥시덴털 전문가가 아니며 투자 자문이 아니라고 명시했고, 2021년 실적을 백미러로 보는 것이라며 전제(고유가 지속)의 불확실성을 인정했다. 전반적으로 고유가 지속 시 옥시덴털의 현금창출력이 크게 늘어 밸류에이션 매력이 있다는 낙관적 논조다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 버핏의 매수를 근거로 옥시덴털 주가에 긍정적 입장이며, 고유가가 유지되면 현금흐름이 더 늘 수 있다고 봤다.
다듬은 글
As oil prices have soared this year, what is Berkshire Hathaway's deep value investor Warren Buffett doing? It is buying more, betting more on consistently high energy prices. What exactly are you buying ? We are talking about the shares of Occidental Petroleum (OXY), where it already has a considerable stake with preferred shares and guarantees of more than 10 billion dollars, approaching 15 billion.
He is increasing this bet, suggesting that not only have oil prices risen, but he suspects that at current prices, Occidental Petroleum is an interesting, potentially even compelling, stock, and that by buying more at these prices, he suggests that high oil prices are here to stay. So, if are watching Unrivaled Investing.
This is a no- nonsense channel focused on the mission of finding exceptional companies and unparalleled investments. To be transparent, this is not financial advice, and at the time of posting this video, I did not own shares in Berkshire Hathaway or Occidental Petroleum. Well, just a few days ago, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway revealed that they had bought almost 30 million additional shares of Occidental Petroleum.
OXY is the stock market symbol. So, with Occidental's stock soaring, this likely represents an additional bet, say, of one billion to one and a half billion dollars for Berkshire. Now, you might think that's not much, but you must understand that there's a story here. Previously, Buffett invested $10 billion in Occidental Petroleum to help them finance their acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum in 2019.
And in typical Buffett business fashion, he got an excellent deal. Berkshire invested around $10 billion in these new preferred shares, which Berkshire obtained exclusively, which paid 8 % interest and included warrants with the right to buy up to 80 million shares of Occidental at an exercise price of about $62.50.
This price was later adjusted in favor of Berkshire Hathaway to 84 million shares that they can obtain with the guarantees at $59.62 per share. This is due to an anti-dilution clause in the preferred shares. I could talk about that for those interested, perhaps I'll share it on the exclusive Unrivaled Investing server, but this option alone, this guarantee, represents a $5 billion investment option in addition to the $10 billion in preferred stock.
So , while Buffett's original bet on Occidental Petroleum didn't look so good, OXY and virtually all oil stocks took a big hit when oil prices fell significantly due to the COVID collapse. And keep in mind that he's been betting on Occidental Petroleum, thinking that oil prices were going to rise. He practically predicted it, he literally said it, but it didn't happen at first because of the impact of COVID.
At one point, we even saw negative oil prices, but now Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway's bet on Occidental Petroleum is taking a firm turn as energy prices soar due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So far this year, oil prices have risen more than 60%, which brings us to last week, when Buffett and Occidental Petroleum filed a Form 13G.
The 13Gs are for large investors who own between 5 and 10% of a company with the SEC, and Berkshire Hathaway claims ownership of about 114 million shares. This includes the 84 million unexercised warrant shares he obtained with that $10 billion preferred investment . In total, this represents an ownership stake of around 11.2%.
Going back to this, seeing that he disclosed his 113 million shares is a step forward, because it means that he was buying about 30 million shares on the market very recently. This has investors wondering whether they should buy now that Buffett is not only maintaining his bet, but increasing it to his already considerable nominal position of $15 billion, adding the $10 billion in preferred shares.
Management will have the right to repurchase them, I believe, around 2029. That will still pay Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway 8% annually, but now he 's buying more common stock. He has that option, that $ 5 billion option at $60 per share to invest $5 billion at that price. But now he's buying even more.
Let's say, adding an additional one billion dollars. And so, when considering the valuation of Occidental Petroleum ( OXY) shares, let's first understand that before energy prices skyrocketed, they were doing quite well. They generated around $8 billion in free cash flow . They were primarily using it to pay off the debt from these acquisitions.
And although most of its profits come from international oil and gas production, it can be seen that most of it is domestic, some is international, but most of its profits come from production; They have about 30% of their 2021 profits coming from chemical and midstream segments. From this, you can see that oil and gas account for about 4 billion of their profits, while these other segments accounted for the other, let's say, 1.5 to 2 billion.
So, overall, we see a gain per segment of about 6 billion in 2021. But the reality is that looking at the 2021 results is like looking in the rearview mirror. This is looking back, and we live in a completely new world. Now, I keep repeating this point. I just made a full video on this very point and one of the main conclusions is that investors must adapt to this new reality.
And this reality, as you can probably see Buffett doing here, is to say: "Yes, I believe that higher oil prices are here to stay. I'm going to bet more heavily on my investment in Occidental Petroleum." So why is it doing that? Does that mean it's cheap even after Occidental has gone up? So, you look at Occidental and see what management is pointing out here, and they're saying, "Look, for every $1 change in the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, that's another $205 million in annualized cash flow they could potentially get." So, you look at the price change so far this year, from $76 to $124 per barrel; This could imply, by making a basic calculation, that this change multiplied by 205, could mean about 10 billion additional in cash flows.
Now, keep in mind that I'm not an expert on Occidental Petroleum, but this is a very simplified approach to saying, " Wow, this might suggest, based on what management is saying, that even though they made, you know, let's say $8 billion in free cash flow in 2021 , you could be looking at a business generating, maybe $15, or even close to $ 20 billion in free cash flow next year, just based on current oil prices that have gone parabolic." So, that raises the question of: well, wait a second.
If this is perhaps a systemic or larger problem , could oil prices rise even further? Could they generate even more free cash flow? So that's something to think about. I don't consider myself an expert on Occidental Petroleum at all, you know, I 'm just starting to understand the situation because, well, I'm interested in following what Warren Buffett does, but I find it extremely interesting.
Based on the diluted shares outstanding plus the 84 million in Berkshire warrants, you're looking at around 1.042 billion shares outstanding. Let's say that currently, you know, the price of Occidental Petroleum's stock is around $60. That's a capitalization of $63 billion . Well, management will likely use this free cash flow boom, say $15 to $20 billion, to pay down debt.
Their goal, at least in the short term, was to reduce net debt to $20 billion. That's, let's say, another six or seven billion from where they are now. So, if Oxy generates $15 to $20 billion in free cash flow under the current economic realities of energy prices under this new reality, even with the stock significantly rising, say with a market capitalization of $60 billion , it is still a multiple of three to four times free cash flow .
So it's no surprise that Warren Buffett is interested and excited about this. You know, he's clearly watching this. Let's think about this for a second. A company at three or four times free cash flow, if they say: "Yes, we're going to increase, you know, we're going to allocate more of our free cash flow to expanding our production and our reserves." So that's a possibility.
Perhaps that three to four isn't entirely accurate, but still , if it says it's four to five times free cash flow because they're really going to reinvest some of that in the business, that implies they might be returning that cash to shareholders. And then, if you start thinking of it like, you know, yes, they have to invest in the business and yes, they might be paying off some debt, but then it could be, from the shareholder's perspective, five times the free cash flow.
And that starts to get interesting because then you say, well, wait a second. From the shareholder's perspective, that effectively means a 20% return. 1/5, a 20% potential return for shareholders. Could they buy back, say, 20% of the shares next year based on this current economic reality? And the reality is, what happens if oil prices continue to go parabolic?
Could we see Occidental Petroleum's free cash flows become even higher, in which case perhaps this would trade at, say, two to three times free cash flow ? Could they buy back, say, 30% of the outstanding shares if prices stay where they are? So, this is, I believe, the dynamic that Warren Buffett is relying on.
After all, he's that deep, traditional value investor who says, "Hey, let's buy with real cash flows." So it's no surprise that Warren Buffett is buying more. It's no wonder he's smiling here. You know, I love watching it. You know, if you enjoyed this video talking about Warren Buffett's latest purchase, with Occidental Petroleum making a big bet, possibly relying on the new economic realities of oil prices, please be sure to give it a thumbs up and hit the subscribe button.
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