저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
제이미 다이먼이 연준이 스태그플레이션 시나리오에서 금리를 7%까지 올릴 가능성을 언급했다는 점이 시장 공포의 핵심이라는 결론. 진행자는 다이먼 발언을 근거로 금리 인상이 단순 기술적 쉼이 아니라 더 올라갈 수 있다고 주장한다. 낮은 확률의 시나리오지만 시장이 이를 반영하는 중이라고 본다. 미 국채 10년물 금리가 4.5%를 넘는 이유로 인플레이션보다 워싱턴의 정치적 혼란과 고부채 문제가 부각된다고 설명한다. 부채 부담이 추가 금리 상승으로 이어질 수 있다는 주장이다. 독일이 국채 발행 일부를 중단했다는 사례를 들며 부채 조달이 점점 어려워진다고 말한다. 각국 정부의 재정 지출 확대와 에너지 가격 상승이 물가를 자극한다고 본다. 유럽 금리 인하 효과에 대해서도 언급하며, 미국 금리가 높게 유지되면 달러 강세와 유럽 인플레이션을 자극해 유럽 경제도 끌어내릴 수 있다고 주장한다. 금리가 3~5%에서 오르는 것과 5~7%에서 오르는 것은 피해 규모가 다르다는 Bloomberg 차트를 인용하며, 7% 부근이 핵심 분기점이라고 강조한다. 진행자는 현재 시장을 공포 국면으로 규정하며, 대형 기술주는 2023년 강세였지만 중소기업과 주택담보대출자는 고금리 부담을 받는다고 본다. 전반적으로 경기침체 및 부분적 디플레이션 우려를 제기하며 '안전벨트를 매라'는 경고로 마무리한다.
다듬은 글
It's eight o'clock, two hours until the close of Wall Street, and the market is gripped by fear—fear of the Federal Reserve, fear that interest rates in the United States, and therefore in the rest of the world, still have not just a pause, but a pause along the way. That is to say, that this isn't a pause before the beginning of interest rate cuts, but that we still have a long way to go.
Doesn't that seem strange after having seen them rise a little bit more in the last year and a half? Just a little bit more. Now, it seems, says Jamie Diamond, that he's looking at an option on the horizon, still with a low probability, called 7% in a stagflationary environment. Notice that these five key factors that are currently moving the market and businesses around the world begin with that snapshot taken by Jamie Diamond in The Times of India this morning in an interview where he made his position very clear: that the Federal Reserve might be considering, in a complicated scenario—that is, in a stagflationary scenario, economic stagnation, high inflation— taking interest rates to 7%, one point and Half above where they are now, but it further supports the option that this pause is simply a technical pause, a refueling pause, as is being said in the United States at this time.
It is not only a long pause, but a pause to gather strength to see and finish making an upward move that avoids the 80s in the economic situation, in such a way that Cascari, who spoke today about interest rates, said 25 basis points more, that is right now, peanuts when watching TV, watching the next meeting of the Royal Spanish Football Federation, pretty peanuts, as the market currently understands that movement of its interest rates, that upward movement of Jills, that movement of US Bond spreads, that upward movement of the dollar, all that movement is in step with the complicated moment of debt in the United States, which would be a fundamental element.
It no longer seems that the 10-year US Bond is breaking 4.5% because of inflation, but because of the chaos in Washington and above all because of that feeling that right now in Washington, at the Federal Reserve, there is a problem called high Debt not only the political chaos in Washington but the high debt that could lead not only to a further increase in interest rates, as Cascarri said today, and today, today, today, Cascarri said, 25 more basis points, but Jaime Diamond just pointed out what the path to the Apocalypse is, listen, there is an apocalypse here, of course, it's called 7%.
Mark my words: 7%. The 7% that the Federal Reserve is currently proposing in a scenario with practically no other options, but Jamie Diamond is putting it on the table. And look, Buller had already talked about all this. James Buller had already spoken about the inflationary surge due to energy; we're experiencing it now.
And that feeling that spendthrift governments are allowing themselves to continue spending more, even reducing their gross domestic product, to pass the buck to the average citizen. Let's go back a day. Cristina, at 3 PM European time, Madrid time, yesterday was talking about the 8% that interest rates have fallen in Europe.
At least 2% of that directly affects us. And what about the other 6%? The rate cuts until 2025 are supposed to lower inflation. The current rate cuts have been at least 2%, from 10% to 2%, from 2022 to 2025, as is projected. And the other 8% is due to conditions that the European Central Bank cannot control, conditions that the Federal Reserve cannot control, among others: spendthrift governments, energy prices, the fiscal situation, and...
With elections looming, the current picture is tinged with fear. Fear is the key at this hour, the fear of whether the Federal Reserve has simply lost its economic grip, trying to crush the taxpayer, the citizen, the mortgage holder, the small and medium-sized business, at the expense of those big tech companies that have already made 2023 one of the most glorious years of their stock market performance.
And in exchange, they're also allowing the Bidens, Sánchez, and so on, to open their checkbooks as if there were no tomorrow, because what comes out of one place, the Central Bank takes away from another. 7%, mark my words, because right now, today is seatbelt day. Today is a day to fasten your seatbelt tight, because if that message from Demond remains silent, and not until seven, but until 6:25, 6:50, the picture is that we are heading towards an economic recession with hints of depression, and above all, we are heading towards a situation where debt will be very difficult.
We'll see later. Germany has decided to stop issuing part of what it was going to issue. Why? Because it can no longer be done. To maintain that level, keep going to the market to ask, keep going to the market to ask, keep going to the market to ask. Look at this chart about how federal funds and the S&P 500 are evolving.
Look at the key fundamental point of this chart: the gap between 3% and 5% interest rates is not the same as the damage that has been done. The damage that can be done between 5% and 7% is not the same. Yes, it's 200 basis points. But it's not the same, firstly because mortgages go to 10% in that environment in the United States, and watch out for the ripple effect in Europe.
Looking at Europe, saying, "I can't, I can't," but if I don't raise the interest rate differential between what I'm paying in the United States and what I'm paying in Europe also drags Europe down, with a strong dollar that generates inflation. So pay attention because this Bloomberg chart points to the key fundamental level around 7% .
200 basis points between the 3rd and 5th percentiles is not the same as 200 basis points between the 5th and 7th percentiles. Although it may seem so, it isn't. They are still 200 basis points, but that's the only similarity. The other 7% is the apocalypse, the financial apocalypse. Watch out for the movement Jamie is starting to anticipate, and he thinks I'm not just another market player.
When he's starting to give us an idea of where this situation might lead, he's doing it for a reason. The reason is clear: 25 basis points. I'm already taking it for granted, which is why the market has become so scared, so scared, and so scared. The other fundamental point comes from this madness.
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