저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
Vijay Kedia는 선물옵션 트레이딩 실수를 10여년간 지속했다고 회고하며 장기투자 원칙을 강조한다. 인도 시장은 장기 보유에 유리하며, 10년간 시총 10억달러 이상 기업이 175개에서 550개로 늘었다고 언급한다. Dixon Technologies는 고평가 논란 속에서도 주가가 4000원대에서 18000원대로 올랐다고 설명한다. 고평가 종목이라도 성장성이 있으면 보유할 가치가 있다고 본다. 발언자들은 실수에서 배우는 것의 중요성을 강조한다. 예측 발언은 장기 보유 관점에 한정된다.
다듬은 글
No so typically if you go to any of the business schools as well they have case studies unfortunately which is live right those case studies are in the past and hindsight vision is 2020 the beauty about this book is this is an evolving case study like he said that you know people are learning while they are making their mistakes and these guys are legend investors but they are also still investing in the market and may you all continue to do so as well so this live nature of this book makes it a lot more fun and the second part is they have been fairly candid and let's start with Mr.
Kedia himself you know everybody speaks about how they learn from successes can you give us an idea of what some of your early failures were and you know what mistakes did you learn from and what did you learn from them so let me tell you of course later I have been many mistakes but what I have understood in my life is that mistakes also you know it has two words miss and take so ultimately what you miss but it depends on what you take from what you miss so that is why it is called mistakes so coming to my life there have been of course there have been many mistakes and one more thing I have believed I did some how give you some lesson ok so if you learn the lesson from the mistake then it is not a mistake so this is still going on so I can't you know pin point and I can't elaborate but the biggest mistake what I did in my life was one that I started my career into stock market from trading from trading in anno future and option but later on in my life I realise that you know that in trading I can run only may be 10 meters 50 meters may be 100 meters.
Beyond that, it is not in my capacity to run a marathon. By adopting futures and options trading in my life, this I had realized, but I realized it after 10 years of my career. When I started investing, I didn't come into this market. It took me 10 years to learn this thing that I'm not cut out for this futures, options, and trading, and all, but it took me another 10 years to come to this conclusion and to win over my my you call habits and what ever you call it.
It took me another 10 years to stop trading. You know in the market. Basically, it took you 20 years to stop trading in the market. And the biggest mistake was this. After realizing this thing, what happens, you don't realize your mistakes until you lose some times. That is why we say that the biggest learning from Others' mistake is the best thing in life because if you will, if you will learn everything from your own mistakes then your one life will be very short right away so I realize this thing after 10 years that it is not for me even than it took me 10 years to win over it but sometimes they say that to go to heaven you have to die yourself you can't go by someone else's death but you know a lot of people entered the markets after Covid it's been just five years a lot of them open their accounts every morning and they want to trade it took him 20 years to realize that that is not for them so if you want to save 15 years of your life just learn it from him right away gautam a your biggest mistake if you can get a little more specific what did you learn from it and what would you you know what should everybody Here's the takeaway from that, or I think just to do with what Vijay said, with all due respect to him, I think India is probably one of the best long-only markets in the world, and I don't know if you agree with me, Vijay, but the fact is, if you pick the right stocks and hold them for the next 5, 10 years, and as I tell certain investors by the right stocks, and you know, go take a five-year vacation, and come back, you would have made you know anywhere from 5x to 10x depending on the stock.
So, my view is that India is a great long-only market. Let me give you another bit of evidence of what I am saying over the last 10 years. 10 years ago, we had 175 companies with a market cap of over a billion dollars. Today, there are 550 companies with a market cap of over a billion dollars. But of course, within these two 10 years, A lot of these companies did not exist in terms of being listed and got listed but even after that you know it's been a grand success so that I think is lesson number one lesson number two is I think in terms of valuation and I found this from time to time and I'm going to give an example of the one I've written in the book is Dixon Technologies so Dixon I think we did a lot of work on it we met the management and then the stock was about 4 a share we said it's too expensive great business great management too expensive stock went to 8000 we said oh my god this is out of control you know all the best to the people are looking at buying it finally the stock to cut a long story short went to 18000 and we missed one of the biggest bull run 10 big stocks in recent history in the Indian equity market now what Where did we go into this and let's understand and appreciate what the lesson from this I think the key lesson is there are stocks that are going to be expensive in India whether you like it or not do not use western metrics to value stocks in India and I told this to foreign fund managers as well if you want to invest in India be ready to pay more for good quality companies again there is at one at one and there a Varun Beverages which is at 45 times 12 year forward earnings okay very expensive why don't you just go and buy Pepsi Co so it's the bottler for those who don't know Varun Beverages is the bottler and distributor of Pepsi Co's products they have a 92% market share in India so people would say 45 times oh my god I would go by Pepsi but you know what This stock is going to keep multiplying because it is a best way to play the electrification of India and what I mean by that is over the last 10 years of the Modi government to give them credit they have done a phenomenal job of electrifying our small towns our cities and villages so what does that mean for the sale of soft drinks you can now serve a soft drink cold i.e.
now you can people can buy a cold drink earlier there was no electricity and the electricity was for very few hours of the day Varun has deployed 1 million viz coolers small refrigerators which actually cool there the pepsi pepsi cola mountain dew tropicana juicex water xt all of these products that they make so there are stocks in India that are going to be expensive whether you like it or not and will remain so for the next 10 to 20 years a late that should not be a reason not to buy the stock alright so if it is expensive the underlying size of the opportunity is good the company is growing very fast and with the benefit of the underlying growth in India it itself would be a multibagger matter the current valuation but that is exactly you know the opposite to what someone like Ravi thinks his company value quest and that is the beauty of the market you know divergence of opinion is what makes the market Ravi what have you learned you know you have learned about not investing in companies which are trading at high multiples by burning your fingers once thanks mangalam and first of all thanks to safar and congratulations on the fantastic book I must say that you know we have all grown up reading waran buffett books peter lynch books and jack swagger wizards of wall street and there is a dirt of good content on Indian Market Wizards and I mean of course I am honored to be part of it I don't think I've made enough mistakes in my life to be part of this but there are a lot more mistakes that I still have to make but thank you so much for having such a wonderful book out there coming to your question yes there we all make mistakes so first of all I think people miss on the basic thing that investing is a probabilistic exercise what you mean by probabilistic there is a probability you will be right but there is also a probability that you will be right so by definition you are going to make mistakes but what I believe the biggest mistake would be is to not learn from the mistake you really mean you know I have had the good fortune of working under the late Mr.
Rakesh Junjun wala and one thing he encourages all of us was to make mistakes and He literally did that. He gave us a in back 20 years back. He gave us a 10 crore fund. You go make your mistakes and you know. I have never heard anyone say that I am giving you money and making sure you lose it all. It was a big dotting thing.
I didn't understand at that point of time. I was naive. But essentially, what he was doing is, he was actually making sure that we make those mistakes because mistakes are your opportunity to learn. And if you don't learn from it, that is the biggest mistake. Otherwise, all these textbook mistakes of yours are overpaying and buying a wrong kind of company.
All those mistakes you will quickly learn from it, but if you understand the main concept behind why you make mistakes and why you learn from them. Because investing is an ultimate liberal. Art Where You Actually Keep Learning Life Long And You Actually Get Better With Age And Experience After The Age Of 60 Also You Can Continue Pursuing It There Are Very Few Things In Life That You Can Pass On So It Is Very Important To Remember That Is Teachable Curious Learning What Ever You Call It And Thanks A To Anand For Bringing This Book Out Because You Learn Most From Your Mistakes Yes We All Would Want Success But Success Is A Poor Teacher Failure And Mistakes Are A Great Teacher Thank You For Giving Us The Headline For Jaipur Lit Fest You Know For All Of Them Wondering Why Is There A Stock Market Discussion Here He Said Investing Is The Ultimate Liberal Art
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