원문 보기
hey guys Mike here so boy what a Big Green Day in the market we were ramping up into Nvidia earnings this will be out after that comes out and stuff but you know I'm going to show you some data to me it was like jaw dropping data coming out of China about our housing market about these zombie companies oh good lord and then I'm not gonna go over too many charts because Nvidia is gonna it'll probably just rock the markets either way moving it up moving it down whatever but I'll go over a few and I'll show you some some great data on Tesla as well as Netflix and then I'll talk to you about some retailers because on this channel we discussed the whole truth and let you make your decision not trying to scare people and everything else because you might have saw with some of the earnings down the retailers they were dropping like tech stocks as I was telling the members this morning 20 30 one day now if you look at the news coming out of China oh boy I mean I don't know how they're getting out of this one but look at this construction starts they've Fallen 50 six percent since 2021 and then look over there that's the real estate under construction minus 17 so as you can see this goes back into the early 90s never seen anything like that before I guess this is what happens when you build what they call them ghost cities and stuff like that you know it's crazy I saw pictures last night they even built a city to mimic France they got the Eiffel Tower and everything if I hope those pictures are real but I saw it last night now this is what is really stunning and paid close attention to this 40 second clip right here their Bank house how many loans they have 54 trillion at the end of 2022 they have a smaller economy than the United States and bank loans in this country are 23 trillion roughly half when you have that much debt the question that China faces is how are they going to handle it are they going to have it full on debt crisis or are they going to have a big balance sheet recession like Japan had which means you wait for years and years for people to pay off as they extend and pretend and when people are paying off old loans that aren't that good or getting restructured they don't have money to do other things like buy a car or do whatever they would do with that money so I mean they're there to keep the trouble they're a heap of economic trouble whoa 54 trillion with a t and you know how much we love our debt in this country and we got half of that I mean that is stackering that is when I saw them like oh boy I did not know it was that bad I knew it was bad but the fact we are built on debt and they got twice as much with their Banks oh boy uh yeah I see why everybody's worried about that shadow company over there the shadow banking part of it I mean that that's just staggering again I don't I don't know how you get out of that I really don't because I've already showed you the population issue they have the unemployment with the younger people who they want to allow that data out anymore and so yeah that's oh my goodness let me know if what your guess is on how they're going to get out of that but understand it is extremely important as I went down to Rabbit Hole today that they get out of it because again it's the second largest economy I'm not rooting against them even I don't like a Communist party or anything but they're they're people you know are just normal everyday working people right trying to make a better life for themselves but also understand if they had an economic collapse buddy it's going to be felt around the globe I mean think about Australia one-third of their exports goes to China it's their largest trading partner do you know how much money and hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars at companies in this country have invested in China right now do you know how much money and China has invested around the world which is going on economic anymore so people will feel it on a global scale it's no different than when what happened to 08 here people felt on a global scale it spread okay when you have the number one number two economies getting whatever a cold everybody else gets the flu or whatever I'm telling you and so they better get it fixed so I'm rooting them for it to get fixed uh for the world that is okay so keep that in mind now here we got the opposite problem when it comes to our real estate market I just updated you on this last week right and rates went up again to 7.31 it wore back in 2007 rates now we're back to 2 000 type levels and look at the applications I mean they just keep dropping so we have the opposite problem here and so again because rates are high prices are High I mean you know it's hard to buy people are still buying I mean it's like 700 000 or whatever went out on the last report so people are still buying because they're being told by now and you can refinance when the rates drop okay so keep that in mind now looking at these zombie companies again this will get updated on this every time I get information about it which ain't very often but this will continue to rise this is where you'll see the bankruptcies really pile up if rates stay high for a long time but the U.S Rising Sheriff companies with debt servicing costs that are higher than profits and you can see this didn't just didn't start in 2020 it started in 2002 it just really ramped up through 2010 and 2021 because money was free right and now money's not free and so you can see around 19 right there of these companies that have this problem and so these are where you'll see a lot of bankruptcy come in you're already seeing them you know pile up I keep showing that every time I get the data and guys before we continue if you're getting anything out of this please hit that thumbs up down there I really appreciate it and if you like the material here and the videos think about subscribing which of course is not good and I don't root for it because guess what people lose drives when that happens so that sucks but it's just it's just a new era now right money and when you got to refinance take out debt it's way way higher okay and we all know we've seen it I've sewn it to you I'm sure you across these companies that are unprofitable their stocks are probably up five thousand percent or something and everything but they ain't making no money and so we had to refi debt it's going to be a huge problem for them now today I understand I'll show you I'm gonna show you exactly what caused this rally you know in pi beta and anything to do with tech and crypto for that matter absolutely it was going up by the way look for stocks that are red on days like today which would be Roblox right there a lot of selling pressure on that style you can't buy a bid right now but you keep going down it didn't matter what the sector was didn't matter it was China didn't matter right I mean anything High beta Tech any of that stuff was going up nickel deserves to be in the toilet on a garbage company that is and then when you keep coming down here you know you can see fintech again didn't matter and look at the semiconductor stocks I mean a video just dragging them up today right Netflix will talk about actually because something happened to them that's what made them charge up almost five percent on the day and you can see this is what happened right here I told you I think I did a members video yesterday I told them if the 10-year treasury shoots down which had a big red candle today down three percent you will see how beta stuff go up this is exactly what happened and make sure you pay attention to that trend line because it just keeps coming down as a double tie but make sure you pay attention to the ascending trend line that's what you're doing to see if it breaks that then you're going to see how beta stuff go through the roof and again this is like a stock when it gets overbought on the RSI it always rolls over right and so that's what's been happening so I've been telling you to watch out for again what else happened the dollar is just stuck it was a slightly red on the day stuck right here it kind of looks like it wants to roll over right here and if it does roll over even short term I'm talking about even for a week or two and the 10-year deal goes with it that is jet fuel for anything to do with tech okay so just keep that in mind right there because that is big okay not saying it's going to happen it could break out finally break out do a retest and keep going but that stuff is just jet fuel for it and the one thing we got to keep aware of and I'll keep you updated on this is the breath right and you can see what I'm talking about obviously you can see the NASDAQ price skyrocketing you can see the NASDAQ cumulative advances and declines as far as like setting new highs new lows and stuff I mean not doing much right and but you see the NASDAQ is up a mile because of the Magnificent Seven as usual right Nvidia and stuff like that being the hard charges they are but this has to start improving for a longer term move up will this happen I don't know but again because the tech stocks have ignored the 10-year yield stuff as it's been charging up because they're doing this this pause rallying everything else that's what's caused this and we'll see if you know because you can see they go hand in hand right so we'll see if gravity takes effect eventually and something happens or you just start seeing instead of NASDAQ coming down a while you see the breath increase quite a bit now you see the cues huge move up today just absolutely enormous move up and so again I was able to stay out of this downward channel right here break above a key so a resistance level right there but what stopped it was the 50 moving average is like a brick wall and it hit it that's usually the case if you see something start selling off pull if you're moving average on your daily and you'll see that's what happened today now obviously this will move if Nvidia or fourth grade earnings and it moves up for tomorrow now Tesla again pretty big day I started off red and I'll show you why it started off red but as you can see on this you got your 8 and 21 curling up still another Green Day right there for it needs to get above this high right here so instead of new higher high come back down set a new higher low obviously uh that would be a nice little Trend change to see the key though I think if I zoom out here you can see if it can get above this trend line which would basically be between like 248 and 252 somewhere in that area depending on when it hits it then that would be super bullish for Tesla and start setting those new higher highs new higher and lows obviously we got we'll have a trend change there and plus the 821 will have crossed by them which is usually bullish for Tesla you can see right here that volume though lines up around right around 250ish right there which would be where it needs to break when it comes across that line so I think you'll see fuel absolutely injected if that happens right there and what's actually got it red and pre-market was they had announce they're going to lower the production Targets in Germany and you can see right here I mean the lower the production Target of this German plant to 43.50 a week in July and August after hitting 5000 a week in March and plans reduce it further According to some documents they got a hold of it and everything so just you know pay attention to that right there take it for what you will but the other thing is long term if you're looking at this this kind of shows you the Head Start Tesla's got on everybody right I mean all EVS in the first half of the Year sold 63.5 were Tesla all these other auto companies 36.5 and to show you what I'm talking about other auto companies there's another way to look at this look at them poster Volvo Nissan Audi Kia rivion Volkswagen Mercedes BMW Hyundai four Chevrolet so all those combined didn't really even come close to Tesla but half of what they sold so you know they just have such a huge Runway and all the infrastructure they've built out over these years now when you look at this this is something I found today too this this looks at the first seven quarters of lucid rivion and Tesla how many they produce and stuff and it's kind of funny when I look at it and we scroll down here you'll see you can see the numbers there too they're like loosen a Riviera are producing more than Tesla over those first seven quarters and you know give it time they're going to ramp up and stuff well the problem with that is and I'll try to find this video for you is remember when Tesla started ramping in 2011 how many Tesla did you see on the road what did the EV sector even exist no not really it exists in China especially not really here at all right and so they had to go build the infrastructure but I'll I'll put a video then I did two years ago showing you the magic sauce of actually what happened to allow Tesla especially the United States really is what I'm focused on that to actually expand the brand here and grow it like they did because they tried for many years uh with no success and I'll show you in a video exactly why they were able to blow it up like they did but they just you know at this point in time the infrastructure they have in place the technology all that stuff they're just so far ahead of somebody and literally I mean they kind of in the United States invented the sector right and so because byd over in China was I'm pretty sure they were doing it before uh Tesla got there and stuff and that's another big company and successful company but um in fact I know they work because Warren Buffett was buying into them uh back in the day so but I'll put that video at the end if you want to know about that stuff so of course you know I expect new EV makers to be pumping out more than Tesla did back in 2011 because the runaway is basically set for you right the business model set for you the um economic environment the way people accept EVS now is set for you so you know anyway watch that video let me know what you think about it now Netflix huge day up almost five percent on the day right here ran into that volume node obviously which is resistance that's what stopped is but the only thing that stopped it 8 and 21 are trying to curl up and cross right there I have to mark that Gap off because it actually did fill that Gap now and when you look I mean look if it can break above that volume node right there that resistance obviously you got a gap within a gap right there if it can't and it drops you can see I mean there's not a whole lot of support there for it but if it does you know then the sky is gonna be the limit what pumped this today was this right here open higher comes out and gives it a 515 dollar price Target now did they pull that out of their butt or did some technician tell them to pick it some technician told them to pick it look who's right here here's your resistance here's the top of that Gap the top of that Gap right there all the resistance is is right around 515.
that's why they picked that number because it gets up there it is going to hit a lot of resistance okay but look what happens when it gets over the resistance I just talked to you about huge volume Gap boom so it has a free Runway to that number if it can get going and the market actually starts to pick up again so keep that in mind now when it comes to earnings obviously tomorrow we have a lot more retailers uh which I'll talk about in a minute I mean you have Dollar Tree Burlington you got a Petco come out after that you'll have Marvel which is another semiconductor a firm Ulta which makes makeup and two it's going to come out as well you have Gap another retailer Nordstrom come out and then when you look at economic data you're going to have your job there to come out tomorrow you're going to Chicago fed National activity come out tomorrow which people probably look at the job that is really all people are going to care about tomorrow you'll have Kansas fed manufacturing data and I understand I've never put this much time on a Morning News brief into retail but I want you to get the full story here when we're talking about this because I mean it was horrendous with the reports we got this morning I mean stocks were dropping 25 30 we're talking about retailers and I put in here you know these stocks are dropping like freaking tech stocks they report about earnings right but understand you know it's obvious Amazon and Walmart who make up 45 of e-commerce and God knows how much Walmart makes up of in-store sales or crushing their competition and also it's obvious that we the consumer are looking for discounts on high quality merchandise and we like e-commerce and if you don't have that we probably ain't shopping with you because Kohl's disastrous profits were down 53 percent football longer disasters the stock dropped 30 percent pre-market Nike end up getting knocked down because the bad news in China Dick's Sporting Goods which carries Nike's also was bad their profit dropped 23 percent uh Macy's sales tank 36 in the fryer year which was a disaster but the truth is you know and a lot of these stores won't blame it on theft and everything which I mean who knows if that's true then yeah Peloton share dropped 26 percent well deserved but the good news is you have Urban Outfitters they're reported really good earnings and then you go on you saw what happened last week right Ross stores Walmart tgx which owns TG Maxx and Marshalls raise their full year outlooks right and so that's a good thing and they saw good sales come in the second quarter and so these retailers which live in the off price and discount sector benefited from a value focused Trend pushing consumers to save where they can during the uncertain economic environment and so it's really about who's running the stores correctly who's offering the disc channels and can offer the discounts and who does e-commerce and I'll be honest with I don't know if you're guilty of this but this is happening multiple times just the other day I was pulling out of my garage to go buy something and I hate shopping by the way I hate going into stores nowadays and I said wait a minute what am I doing I want to order off Amazon so I literally roll back up in the garage on the computer ordered it it was here at 10 o'clock next morning I was good to go you know and so I don't know if you've done that before but I mean it's just the way it is a lot of these companies are way behind the times on that didn't make the switch in time and so now they're losing a lot of customers and supposedly people are walking out with baseball bats out of Dick's Sporting Goods and Macy's I mean maybe they're doing that I don't know I mean I don't go shop there anyway but you know so yeah that's where it is in the retail it's bad on one side but again we're still shopping we like e-commerce we're still running up the credit cards okay and so it's not as dire as what they're trying to really make out to be it's just a lot of these companies especially they're in malls and malls are just dying like crazy anyway uh they're not doing any good so it's really not where you want to be so anyway so we'll see what Nvidia reports I put a lot more charts out tomorrow we'll talk a lot more about that because I think that's what's going to steer us in one direction or the other I'll be shocked if Jackson Hole is is anything but nothing better because we kind of know what the man's gonna say pretty much and so that's where we're on the Master's let me know your predictions what do you think the Mark's going and we'll go from there all right so please hit the like subscribe button if you got anything out of it really appreciate all your support and I'll see you tomorrow foreign
Comments 0