저자: GarrettNelson · 외국인
요약 보기
CFRA가 테슬라 투자의견을 Hold에서 Sell로 하향. 주가가 4월 저점 대비 85% 이상 올라 밸류에이션이 과열됐고, 7월 법안으로 배출권 수익(약 28억 달러, 전년 대비 54%) 소멸이 컨센서스 실적 추정에 충분히 반영되지 않았다고 주장. 내년 예상이익 대비 PER 200배 이상, 12개월 목표주가 300달러. 장기(5~10년)로는 자율주행·로봇 기대감 긍정적이나 완전자율주행은 아직 대규모 상용화 준비 미흡, 머스크 보상안은 주가가 현재보다 크게 오른 뒤에야 첫 지급되는 구조라 긍정 평가.
다듬은 글
CFRA downgrades Tesla from "hold" to " sell." The analyst states that stock valuation has become disconnected from fundamentals. I am connected with the author of this report, CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson. Garrett, good to see you. So, you recommend selling Tesla, Garrett. You are betting against Elon Musk.
Explain to us why. Of course, thank you for inviting me. You know, this is due to the widening gap in stock performance since they hit their lows in April. Tesla shares are up more than 85% . If you look at Wall Street's forecasts for the next few quarters, we think they are still overstated, and we don't think analysts are fully factoring in the negative effects of that big, important bill that was signed into law in early July.
In particular, the impact on Tesla's profits from the elimination of emissions quotas, which has been a huge driver of Tesla's revenue growth in recent years. That was about $2.8 billion in revenue. This was 54% more than the previous year. And, in fact, there are no expenses associated with this income .
So, all of this was fully reflected in net profit. Therefore, looking at the forecasts for the third quarter and until the end of next year, we believe that the estimates are still overstated and subject to downward revision. That's a problem, Garrett . I mean, it's been discussed a lot, including on this program.
You just don't believe that this is reflected in the consensus forecasts. No, according to our research, this is not the case. So you have inflated valuations and a valuation that seems very overheated. The stock is trading at a price that exceeds our earnings forecast for next year by more than 200 times.
So, based on these multiples, these are stocks that have had several pullbacks of 40% or more from peak to trough over the past few years. And we think this is another such situation. When Tesla bulls come to my show , Garrett, I ask them why they're positive about the company. They are talking about the core business of electric vehicles, which still provides the main profit.
Also about a new affordable model being prepared for release, and they are clearly confident that this will be a growth driver. I'm interested in your opinion on this . We are still optimistic about the company in the long term. So, to be clear, this is a 12- month forecast. This is what we base our target prices on.
So, our 12-month price target is $300. And I think we see all the alarming signals that indicate a correction is ahead. But in the long term, we like that they are working in the industries of the future: autonomous driving, robotics. There are many reasons to be optimistic about stocks with a 5–10 year outlook.
It's just that in the near term, in my opinion, analysts have overestimated earnings , and they are underestimating how negatively this loss will affect Tesla's financial results starting in the third quarter. Can I ask about the autonomous systems and AI you mentioned? Dan Ives from Wedbush, who is of course the main bull on this company, right?
He told his clients, Garrett: “Tesla is well positioned to become the leader in the autonomous robotaxi market .” He says the plan is to expand to 30–35 cities in the US next year. According to him , “we believe Tesla’s future in AI is worth $1 trillion just in the company’s valuation over the next few years.” What is your answer to Mr.
Ives? Do you agree with this? No, look, there are many reasons for optimism. However, in our opinion, their full autopilot system is not yet ready for widespread implementation. They only operate in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area. You can go online and find a bunch of videos uploaded in recent weeks where software steers a car the wrong way, pulling into the oncoming lane.
It's just not ready for the mass market yet. Therefore, I believe Tesla will be cautious about rolling out this system to other markets until it is proven safe and ready for mass use. But I would also add that during the last earnings report in July, Elon Musk acknowledged the possibility of several difficult quarters for the company.
We believe investors should take his word for it. What about Mr. Musk's compensation package ? A $1 trillion man , potentially. I'm curious, as an analyst who follows him, what you think about this . Did that eliminate one of the key risks, Garrett, that people were talking about, that Mr. Musk might leave Tesla?
Yes, that's right. And we expect, and we believe, that shareholders will approve this pay package at the annual meeting in November. We constantly see shareholders showing support for Musk. Apparently, he lived up to their expectations over time. If you were a long-term shareholder, you made a good profit.
And so we also like the fact that this really aligns Musk's interests with the interests of shareholders. He won't even receive the first tranche of this new payment proposal until the stock essentially doubles in price from where it is today. So, the goals for this pay package are very ambitious, as they were in 2018, and in fact, he successfully met every one of those metrics.
Indeed so. Garrett, thank you very much for your time today. I appreciate it. Thank you.
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