저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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2021년 미국 주식시장은 코로나 회복과 저금리·풍부한 저축 덕에 강세가 이어질 것이라는 낙관론이다. 팬데믹으로 취약 기업이 도태되며 대형 우량 기업의 시장 지배력이 강화됐고, 백신 보급으로 2021년 하반기에는 팬데믹이 대부분 종식될 것으로 본다. 거시 환경: 바이든 행정부는 법인세·소득세 인상에 나서지 않을 것이고, 옐런 연준 체제에서 저금리와 고용 지원이 예상된다. 은행은 자본이 충분하며, 소비가 억눌려 저축이 크게 쌓여 있어 보복 소비와 기업 투자가 살아날 것이라 본다. 기업 전략: 힐튼은 브랜드·로열티 프로그램 덕에 소형 독립 호텔에서 점유율을 빼앗을 것으로 본다. 스타벅스 역시 경쟁사(루이싱커피 등) 퇴출로 수혜가 예상된다. 힐튼은 팬데믹 중 간접비를 25~30% 줄였다. 포트폴리오 철학: 분산은 무지에 대한 보호막이라는 버핏식 관점을 따르며, 소수 종목(약 10개)을 수년간 보유한다. 대부분 투자등급 우량 기업이며 재무 위험이 낮다고 강조한다. 펀드 자산의 87%가 퍼싱스퀘어 보유 종목에 투입되어 있다. 영국: 자신은 영국 전문가가 아니라고 전제하면서도, 브렉시트 불확실성이 해소되면 영국에도 경제 회복과 주식 호재가 있을 것이라 본다. 대안 자산: 채권은 30년물 국채 수익률 1.3% 수준이라 매력이 없고, 로우스 주식의 이익수익률(약 5.5%)이 더 낫다고 본다. 비트코인은 복잡한 자산으로 언급만 하며 선호를 밝히지 않았다. 금리는 제로 아래로 가는 것은 단기 베팅일 뿐이라 본다. 리스크: 바이러스가 향후 90~120일간 큰 위협이 될 것이라 단기 부정 요인을 인정한다.
다듬은 글
hello today i have with me bill ackman one of the world's best known investors and the man behind hedge fund pershing square holdings hello bill thanks for joining me thanks for having me the kovid 19 pandemic i mean it's hit the glow over the economy hard it still is and stocks have recovered sharply though um so the level of recovery has been quite astonishing in some quarters so is this sustainable do you think stocks will keep moving higher in 2021 so i'll give you a kind of a u.s centric uh perspective and uh and some of it i think applies globally um you know the stock market as i like to say does not is not a fair representation of the global economy it's an important reflection of global economy but it doesn't represent the smaller less well-capitalized uh less well technologically enabled companies think private family-owned you know smaller up-and-coming businesses the s p 500 for example represents probably the the 500 most dominant companies uh in the us in some cases in the world what covett has done what the pandemic has done is it's really disrupted uh you know the less you know companies with bad balance sheets uh without being technologically enabled have been impaired many of them unfortunately the smaller ones have gone out of business whereas the well-capitalized dominant companies have actually improved their market position so um you know surviving a pandemic or having the ability to provide pandemic puts you in a strong competitive position coming out of it and so you think simple example starbucks is a significant holding think about how many fewer coffee shops they're going to be competing against you know one of their principal competitors in china a company called loken that was building you know very large number of stores every year turned out to have been a fraud and the tide rolls out you see who's swimming naked so to speak um so same thing's really true for hilton uh hilton is a really a not a hotel company as much of it as a brand where they where they sell their ip and their brand and their marketing and their uh you know their their millions of customers in the loyalty program to hotels around the world well it's probably more important today for a hotel to have an affiliation with the top brand so the customer feel can feel comfortable about their for example their cleanliness standards you know the smaller independent hotel is going to be more challenged so we think you know the hiltons of the world are going to take more market share um and so i do think you know we are set up for a very strong recovery in 2021 i think the virus is going to be frightening and a disaster for the next call it 90 120 days so that's the big negative news in the short term but we have you know multiple successful vaccines and probably more coming we're going to have fairly wide distribution of those vaccines beginning you know as early as 30 days from now um and i think by the second half of next year will be you know probably out of the pandemic for the most part uh in the first you know kind of what you might call first world and i think um you'll be you know you have a new president coming in uh who's going to be very concerned about the economic recovery so i don't think biden's going to take any steps to increase corporate taxes for example or even personal income taxes uh you're going to have you have janet yellen now running the fed who's going to be you know i think quite supportive of employment and the economy so you can expect low interest rates you have you know well capitalized banks and then you have a large buildup of savings on the part of uh you know americans and really globally as people haven't spent haven't gone out to eat they haven't gone out to the theater they haven't gone to a movie they haven't gotten on a plane uh and and i would say animal spirits are building up i don't know about you but i am the moment i can't first can actually travel and go places so i think you're going to see a huge recovery um even in business you know if you're any kind of business you haven't been to see your clients or customers one of the first things you should be doing is getting on a plane and going to see all your you know your relationships because if you know your competitor is going to be doing and uh so i think you're going to see a fairly rapid recovery beginning sometime late q2 q3 q4 low interest rate environment a ton of savings to be deployed it could be pretty you know favorable and then you have a lot of companies that use the crisis to kind of tighten up their cost structure you know hilton cut i think something like 25 to 30 percent of their corporate overhead costs and i and you know success does breed a certain looseness with expenses and a crisis does the opposite you can have some lean leaned up companies coming out into a very strong environment so i think there's a a pretty good chance for a very strong uh stock market next year okay well that's that's good news um your fund particularly is very concentrated as you've already mentioned i mean how do you reconcile the extra risk of having so few holdings with the potential reward sure so so buffett describes uh he says diversif you should diversification is protection against ignorance so if you don't know what you own you want to own a lot of things uh our business is different you know we own 10 things we tend to own them for years we have some holdings we've owned for a dozen years some eight years four years six years we're looking for businesses we can own for the whole goal behind getting permanent capital was we never wanted to be forced to sell something because of investor capital flows we're now in that position as 87 of our assets are in purchasing square holdings so um uh so one we have the time to do our homework we might identify one or possibly two new investments a year uh you know second of course we these are businesses we've gotten to know quite well over time but most importantly we've selected businesses for their inherent robustness right so almost all of our companies are strong investment grade companies so there's not a balance sheet threat to the businesses we own uh they tend to be very dominant whether it's hilton or starbucks in their respective uh industries so they're an important dominant large cap business they're in businesses that we can understand and they're businesses that we think are not at great risk of disruption and that we spend a lot of our big part of our job is saying how we're looking for the highest quality businesses in the world and so if you own a you know 10 stocks that were sensitive to energy prices or interest rates or regulatory risks were they you know highly levered then you've got enormous risk if you own 10 incredible businesses with strong balance sheets and excellent management teams and you're a large influence of shareholders you can you know encourage them to do smart things and you can discourage them or prevent them from doing things that would be destructive you're actually better off owning a concentrated portfolio and owning the 10 best things you can find and even owning 20 things where we're not going to i ideas 11 through 20 are not going to be as good as ideas 1 through 10.
and that's really the strategy just i mean you your fund is u.s focus but i'm really interested to hear what you've got to say about the uk as an investment destination um what do you think is it investable now or when we have more information on brexit um it's clearly having an impact on the on the currencies at the moment what's your view on the uk you know i would say i'm uh not a domain expert on the on the uk i i certainly enjoy uh uh coming to the uk as a tourist and uh you know obviously uh occasionally on business um but i i'm not sure i could give you a a particularly keen insight all of that being said all the same things i said about the us are really true in the uk and and you know what you didn't have the same election uncertainty we did with the president i think the brexit uncertainty is kind of the same thing so i think brexit being resolved frankly one way or another will lift a cloud of uncertainty and then you have the same you know i assume the brits have the same animal spirits we do in terms of getting out and and uh going to the pub and going for dinner and getting on a plane and traveling and so i think you're going to see a global economic recovery uh and a reduction in uncertainty and the combination of those things should be good for stocks and are you a believer in the sort of the tina effect there is no alternative to equities clearly with you know interest rates at next to nothing um where else do you put your money yeah i agree i i don't i'm not a fan of buying you know bonds of any kind at this at current interest rate levels um you know when you you think about a a long term instrument you know today the 30-year treasury is at 1.3 percent right it's you know when we think about a company uh you know so for example lowe's is trading at something like 18 times earnings if you flip over the pe multiple you know that's you know something north of a five percent you know it's called a five and a half percent earnings yield which would you rather own lows at a five and a half percent earnings yield where that yield is going to grow at a pretty high rate we think mid teens are higher rate for the foreseeable future then by a company that's generating an earnings yield of 1.3 and stuck there for 30 years and there's no potential for upside and that that's the the bond equivalent and so i think equities are by far the superior alternative um you know what are people looking at they're investing in bitcoin um which is a much more complicated you know question um but i feel you know i feel very comfortable owning 10 phenomenal businesses if the stock market shut for 10 years and we woke up 10 years from now those companies would be a lot more valuable and uh you can't say the same thing about bonds you know i do i do think interest rates are largely bounded by zero uh not entirely bounded by zero but uh you know betting on rates going negative is not is a short-term trade not a long-term one bill ackman pershing square holdings thanks very much for joining me today thank you so much appreciate it you
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