저자: NickTrain · 외국인
요약 보기
영국 주식의 저평가를 근거로 해외자산을 매도하고 영국 성장주로 재배분했다고 설명. 영국 데이터·소프트웨어 기업(RELX, LSEG, Experian, Sage)을 선호하며 Clarkson·Intertek을 신규 편입, Diageo는 하락 후 추가 매수. 음주 소비 감소 우려는 과장이며 GLP-1 약 위협도 제한적이라고 봄. LSEG는 Microsoft 합작 효과로 성장 여력이 크다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Welcome to our next interview with an expert. Our guest today is Nick Train, who manages the Finsbury Growth and Income investment trust and the Lindsell Train UK Equity fund. Nick, thank you very much for visiting the studio. With pleasure, Sam. I think we'll find out. We last saw each other 18 months ago and since then you have almost completely sold the international assets in your UK portfolios.
So why did you do it? I simply felt that I had to respond to the shift in value that was becoming increasingly apparent. Everyone knows that the UK stock market has been disappointing investors for longer than I care to remember. But the fact is that as it showed weak results, and in some places even fell, its value, at least in our opinion, only increased.
And, in particular— and I think this is a key aspect of our thinking— contrary to popular belief, there are truly global growth companies on the London Stock Exchange. And when you can buy great , growing companies at a discount to peers and global markets, we just felt like we had to react to it. And the most logical step to finance this increased stake in these outstanding British companies was to sell the non-British assets that we had.
You're right, it's history. Time will tell. All I know is that the right discipline is to react to price changes when they fall and value increases. So, that's my answer. And where exactly did you redirect these funds? So, you know, there are four or five world- class companies in Britain in data, software, and technological advantages.
Again, people don't know this, or maybe they do but don't admit it . And I would cite as examples of such global companies with technological advantages in the field of data such businesses as Relx, London Stock Exchange Group, Experian, Sage. We are very interested in the opportunities that Sage has now, and it is to such companies that we have reallocated capital.
The two new companies you invested in are Clarkson and Intertek. Can you explain this investment decision ? I will explain this on a general level. Partly, even contradicting myself . These are still two relatively small positions that we plan to gradually build up. So I don't necessarily want to encourage your listeners to rush out and buy shares in these companies.
But speaking generally about Clarkson and Intertek, they are two world-class companies. They have both been very internationally oriented businesses for quite some time now. Let's say for 20 years. This is a significant period of time. Both Clarksons—I'll talk about what they do in a moment. Both Clarkson and Intertek outperformed NASDAQ, the US technology index , in sterling terms.
And that's quite interesting, is n't it? When you can find world- class British companies that have outperformed the NASDAQ over an extended period of time, it's at least interesting. And of course, you hope that over time they will continue to outperform the NASDAQ. Clarkson is, by a wide margin, number one in the world in the shipping brokerage business.
Intertek is one of the four global testing and quality assurance companies and is therefore involved in very strong long-term growth trends in the global industry. As I said, both companies have performed excellently as businesses and have shown good stock growth over a long period. Last year , when we started investing, both had relatively low stock prices, and we thought it was a good opportunity.
Diageo is a company you have owned for a very long time. You once said it was a company that everyone has, but the stock has fallen about 40% from its peak and it still takes up 10% of your fund. So why do you continue to support this alcohol company? Look, let's be completely frank. We bought additional shares of Diageo this morning, and as I said earlier, when world-class companies—like any business— go through a difficult period when the share price falls (we did not expect such a sharp drop), the disciplined move would be to buy new shares if the original investment case remains relevant.
We believe this investment case remains unchanged, so a decline in the share price is a significant opportunity. What phrase did you use? You said something like, "What went wrong with the company?" Let's be clear: the company just posted disappointing half-year results, and the share price fell after that.
The group's revenue or sales fell by 0.6 percent for the half-year . Profits actually increased somewhat. Perhaps this is disappointing compared to the expectations of two years ago. This is indeed disappointing compared to expectations, but it is not a corporate disaster. This does not mean that profits or the business itself have somehow collapsed.
I think the most important thing is...our view at Diageo is that we agree that global per capita alcohol consumption is falling. In fact, it has been declining for 30 years or more. People around the world, as they become wealthier, are consuming less alcohol. But the compensation for this is that , although they drink less, they choose higher quality, premium drinks.
And if you are the number one premium beverage producer in the world by a significant margin, you are in a strong position. Diageo, I repeat, is by far the largest spirits company in the world . Um, also owns Guinness. Um, but Diageo accounts for less than 5% of global alcohol consumption. Um, so there's still 95% of this market that Diageo can capture.
Even if the overall market shrinks a bit, if you have the best brands, the best distribution and marketing, you still have a great opportunity for growth and share gain. One risk for Diageo is that weight loss drugs will reduce demand for alcohol. What is your opinion on this? It seems unlikely to me, to us, that well, it's a drug, you know, but a drug that's so deeply ingrained in socialization and human interaction for millennia, it seems unlikely that a drug with uncertain long-term side effects would displace it.
So, yes, I tend to see this more as an opportunity to buy a business than as an existential threat. I mean, a company can only talk about what it sees, of course. Um, but I think it's worth noting that in the United States, where people are most focused on weight loss drugs, Diageo reports that Gen Z consumers , I know, it's not exactly about weight loss, but they're more likely to drink hard drinks than millennials in the previous cohort.
So the idea that people are drinking less beer and wine but more tequila seems to remain a very strong trend. And this is very beneficial for Diageo in the long run. Consumer brands now make up about a third of the portfolio. Five years ago they were about half. So was it a conscious decision to pull funds out of consumer stocks, or is it a result of lower stock prices?
Yes, I think that's a great question, and no, it was a deliberate reduction in the influence of consumer brands. One of the reasons they made up almost half of the portfolio was because they had shown great results for so long. Hmm , sometimes it's hard to respond to change after you've been so well rewarded for your long-term commitment to an idea.
And don't twist anything I say here. The outlook for premium luxury brands with heritage around the world today is as good, if not better, than at any time in history. Yes. I... the prospects for Guinness, Johnny Walker, Burberry or Fever-Tree , which we also... the prospects are as good, if not better, than ever.
So that doesn't mean I'm turning away from this idea. But I really think that, as I mentioned earlier, these are London-based data and software companies. I believe that over the course of the 21st century, it has become very apparent that the monetary return that enterprises of this type can receive on their capital is structurally higher than that of major industries of the 20th century.
Yes. Gradually, and perhaps more significantly, we are trying to increase our share in these digital businesses that do not require a lot of capital, that have truly extraordinary economics and still significant growth opportunities. You own four or five of these leading British companies, but you can also invest internationally .
I know you just reduced this part of the portfolio to zero, but would you consider international data companies ? Would you look at the United States? The UK stock market's underperformance has led to a generational opportunity to gain access to growing and undervalued British companies. And I believe that at this stage it deserves our exclusive attention.
Of course, we do other things at Lindsell Train Limited, but ultimately, we are talking about a strategy for the UK. There is such a huge opportunity here, not only in the companies we own but also in those we could own, that I see this as the best leverage for our clients. Of the four or five large UK data and technology companies, can you provide an investment case for one of them and explain why it is attractively valued compared to international stocks ?
I always find it ironic that, um... despite the disappointing performance of the UK stock market , we agreed to this. Um, one of the standout investments in the British stock market over the last 20 years or more has been the London Stock Exchange Group itself. So, owning the London Stock Exchange was a fantastic investment, even though the market itself was n't doing well.
By the way, the explanation for this paradox is that the income the company receives from managing the London Stock Exchange is only 3% of the group's total income. I'm not saying that makes it irrelevant. This is a very important asset for the company, but it is not the main driver of the London Stock Exchange Group's success.
London Stock Exchange Group shares have risen more than 30-fold since going public in 2001. And the reason, by the way, is that it outperforms everything, even the NASDAQ, and very significantly, since 2001. The reason why LSEG, as we should call it, has been so successful as an investment and a business is because it has acquired and developed data assets and technology services that it offers to global market participants.
This is a long-term growth opportunity and London Stock Exchange Group is a systemically important global player in providing these services. There is a long way to go in developing such data and technology services. I think what's actually most attractive about LSEG today is that this opportunity, which the company undoubtedly has, was recognized by Microsoft two years ago.
Microsoft, as I'm sure our viewers know, is a partner of the London Stock Exchange Group in a joint venture. Microsoft has a director on the LSEG board and is among the six largest shareholders of the London Stock Exchange Group. So this is a very important joint venture, and Microsoft has made this commitment to LSEG because it believes that together they can accelerate the growth of both companies in selling these services and products to global financial institutions.
This is a very powerful combination. In our opinion, this will most likely lead to accelerated revenue growth for London Stock Exchange Group, which, in turn, will lead to even more rapid growth in their profits. And today, you can take advantage of this opportunity to participate in a joint venture that Microsoft's CEO says could change the way global financial services are delivered; you can access this opportunity at a significant discount compared to valuations of similar global companies, especially compared to US exchanges or data groups.
So yes, I still think there's an element of global bias, maybe I'm being unfair, but I still think there's a proportion of people who say, "Oh, it's called the London Stock Exchange Group. I don't like the London Stock Exchange. It deserves to be traded at a discount." And if there's still a little bit of bias left in this towards the company because of the asset it owns and the name it has, then that 's a huge opportunity because it's not irrelevant, but it's not a central aspect of the investment case .
And who knows, maybe the UK stock market will perform better in the next few years. And this is another positive factor. Nick, thank you very much for visiting our studio. It was very nice. Thank you. That's all we've managed to discuss for today. You can watch more expert interviews on our YouTube channel, where you can like, comment, and subscribe. See you next time.
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