저자: NickTrain · 외국인
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영국 주식은 오랜 기간 저평가되어 있으며 거대한 기회를 제공한다는 결론. 영국 주식 시장은 장기간 실망스러운 수익률을 보였지만, 글로벌 경쟁력 있는 기업들이 역사적·글로벌 동종 대비 낮은 밸류에이션에 거래되고 있어 기회라고 주장. 버버리는 6~7년간 주가가 횡보했으나 2022년 9월 이후 약 45% 상승. 추가 상승 여지가 크다고 봄. 스탠다드차타드도 1996~97년 수준과 비슷해 가치 해방 가능성 언급. 영국 주식의 장기 성과: 1952~2022년 총수익 약 2,500배, 인플레이션 약 20배로 자산 보호·부 형성에 기여했다고 강조. 런던증권거래소(LSE)는 포트폴리오 최대 보유 종목 중 하나(9%)이며, 마이크로소프트와 합작 및 지분 4% 인수로 전략적 가치가 입증됐다고 평가. 액티브 vs 패시브: 둘 다 필요하다는 입장. 디아지오는 2000년 이후 약 7배 상승해 액티브 투자 근거로 제시. 개인 투자자도 기업 이해도가 높으면 좋은 투자 결정을 내릴 수 있다고 봄. 리스크: 영국 시장은 정치적 혼란 등으로 장기 부진. 다만 밸류에이션 회귀 가능성이 있다고 봄. 출연자 전망: 영국 우량 기업들이 향후 수년~수십 년간 부를 보호할 가능성이 높다고 강조.
다듬은 글
foreign Hunter interview where I sit down with guests who know the city best to talk about the trends triumphs and turmoil that affect your Investments to kick things off I'm joined by the first and still most popular guest from our podcast days who has kindly agreed to speak with us again Nick train co-founded literal train Limited in 2000 and is the manager for its UK Equity portfolios including the Finsbury growth and income Trust Nick has over 40 years experience in investment management and his approach is based on out of Warren Buffett's involving building a concentrated portfolio of quality companies that have strong Brands and or powerful Market franchises the bulk of these are UK companies and this leads to a very different portfolio when compared to the Benchmark Futsal share index so welcome once again Nick thank you for joining us and thank you for hosting us that is my pleasure of course as you say for someone of my vintage 40 years plus in the industry it's it's it's nice to feel that people still think that maybe there's something relevant I've got to say but um let's explore that proposition now when when we spoke last year you had said that unloved UK shares were offering cheap exposure to Mega Trends providing a volume of opportunities in fact you went further than that saying that uh you'd barely seen such opportunities in four Decades of investing your latest follow-up observation is as follows but it is virtually the definition of financial markets that they deliver returns that confound consensus why is that do you think well um because once everybody has bought or everybody has sold the next movement in a price is likely to go against the majority and you know one of the most notable features I think I've witnessed over my career is the extraordinary disinvestment out of UK equities by British savings institutions particularly Pension funds I I think the statistic I saw today said that only two percent of a typical Pension funds assets are now exposed to the UK Equity market and when something has gone against an index or a market for so long probably the next thing is a is is a reversal and a and a surprise there's really important wealth at stake here there's no question two things one that there are some truly substantive important businesses quoted on the London Stock Market that's for sure the other thing for sure is that the UK stock market has delivered grievously disappointing returns now for longer than I care to I I care to to consider and the combination of the two means that as you've suggested I don't think it's difficult to demonstrate that there are many globally significant businesses listed on the London Stock Market whose share prices and valuations are low relative to history and low relative to Global peers and all other things being equal that ought to amount to an opportunity it ought to I've got to hope so because I'm a died in the wool uh UK guy can I just mention in one sure um just because it's cheered my mood up a bit so far in um the tail end of last year and into into 2023 for longer again I say this than I care to consider I've been trying to encourage and persuade investors to look upon Burberry as a Great British brand one of the only in fact are going to be the only luxury British brand that exists and for six or seven years my words have fallen on Stony ground and the share price has flatlined for a long time um but and I'm not even sure I can explain to you why since the end of September berberus share price is up something like 45 and I'm so delighted um but that's the way of things you don't know when value might be released all you know is for the longer that it isn't released the potential is greater and just because Burberry has had a 40 share price pop doesn't mean that it's all over yet and I think by extrapolation let's hope there are lots of other instances both in the UK stock market more particularly the portfolios that I'm responsible for well absolutely and that um kind of makes me wonder whether there are other factors that play for the fact that the UK Market has been effectively held back your investment approach for example says that your valuation work generates price targets very different from those of other investors and that you think that investors often use inappropriate Equity risk premiums evaluation models too high for exceptional businesses too low for the mediocre that's a complicated set of propositions there listen it's not difficult to account for the disappointing performance of the UK stock market um particularly over the last half decade I mean it's had a whole load of political turmoil thrown at it as well as other exogenous uncertainties i i i i as I say I'm just falling back on the proposition that okay so in the first week of um this New Year there was a rumored bid for standard and Chartered bank now the potential bidder which I think was Abu Dhabi bank or something has subsequently said no no we're not gonna make a bid um but nonetheless and I don't know that much about standard and chartered banker man obviously I've followed it for a long time but I'm not an investor but you look at standard and Chartered Bank that is a substantive business with an important franchise in Asia you look at the share price and actually the shares are not much higher today than they were in 1997 1996 that's a quarter of a century ago the share price hasn't made anybody any money and it's not the only substantive British company of which that's true I'm just saying that creates an environment where things can happen or value can get released quickly perhaps as as it's happened recently with Burberry and I just don't want people to to give up on that yeah I'm also going to say this if if I may over the 70-year reign of our dear departed Monarch according to Bloomberg okay this is a Bloomberg stat over the 70 years of Queen Elizabeth II's reign the total return on UK equities was something like positive two and a half thousand fold right over that same 70-year period inflation was up in inverted commas only 20 times in other words for the bulk of the 20th century and into the 21st century actually UK Equity as an asset class did British Savers a wonderful service it protected it against inflation and what's more it helped build wealth as well and I see no structural conceptual reason why that shouldn't continue in years and decades to come and okay I'm a career-long UK Equity guy of course I'm going to say this but it bothers me and worries me that people might think that that somehow we've given up on the UK corporate sector or that you should give up on the UK corporate sector please don't because there are substantive globally significant companies quoted here that are very very likely to help protect your wealth in years to come well on the basis you have now gone past my next question I'm going to think of another one which is that I was given a brief speech last night and a question from the floor was from an old time broker who said that what's the stock exchange playing out we're not seeing very many IPOs at the moment and part of the reply obviously who'd want to float in 2022 amidst that kind of turmoil I said however I think if Nick train was here as a shareholder with the stock exchange he would point you rather more towards what they're getting right in terms of their digital capabilities their recent acquisitions and so on and you have remained a fairly vocal fan of the stock exchange and its prospects well no no absolutely it's it's it's one of our biggest Holdings um in my UK strategy it's it's a nine percent holding so it's a very very significant commitment that we've made of our clients savings the London Stock Exchange actually actually over the years partly by acquisition partly by organic growth has turned into a systemically important provider of financial services and data to the whole Global Financial community and yes I think that some of your your viewers may recall last month it seems a long time ago but but as recently as December the London Stock Exchange announced it was entering into a joint venture with Microsoft as part of that joint venture Microsoft has voluntarily and presumably because Microsoft thinks it's going to make a lot of money out of it bought or announced is going to buy four percent of the shares of the London Stock Exchange and to me that joint venture with one of the world's most respected companies Microsoft of course it it's another indication of the Strategic value that's present in the London Stock Market itself as represented by the owner of the uh of of the London Stock Exchange and I do think Brits have a propensity to put ourselves down and look too much to the downside and not recognize what this corporate sector and what this economy has got going for it would be my view just moving slightly to one side I wondered if you had any views on on primary research you know going out to meet the management face to face and whether you might have found any barriers in doing so as um so notably quoted in recent weeks by Terry Smith well I I I'm sure like like Terry because he has a similar very very strategic multi-year perspective on the Investments that he makes in companies we've always had in our opinion very open and and cordial access to the boards of the businesses that that we've invested in and there is a a very regular exchange of strategic views about how businesses might best create value for for their owners I I wouldn't expect for a moment I wouldn't want to be in receipt of information that made us an Insider or gave us any advantage over all other investors um and actually I've always said and I still stick to the view that a private individual with a with a deep understanding of a company's product or service is just as likely to make a Sound Investment decision as someone like me who can sit down with the chief executive of a company twice a year I really think that private investors are better provided with the information and the Insight they need them sometimes they think themselves I've just I've just had an interesting conversation and perhaps I won't say the company but I've just been talking to the chairman of a of an important public company in the UK and it's an important holding in our strategy and I observed one or two developments that the company had announced that we thought were encouraging and he said but that's amazing he said you're the first shareholder who's actually mentioned those developments and it just seems as though most of our shareholders don't really care about how the business is developing or they're more like a hedge fund who's looking whether how to trade the stock on the next you know month's view so from that perspective yes I think our as you put it primary research of actually looking to see how companies are developing on a quarter by quarter basis can still add some value while you're here I wondered what your views might be on the current debate around active versus passive fund management um and whether perhaps there's room for both it's a truism to say that there is room for both I do find myself conflicted by by this um okay can I let me just share a statistic with you okay since January the 1st 2000 so the start of this Century Millennium whatever you would have called it since January the first two thousand the all share the capital value of the Ft or share NX UK is only up about 30 percent I mean desperately disappointing desperately disappointing in the meantime the msci World Equity index in Sterling is up about two and a half times so much much much better but the biggest holding in our UK strategy give or take Diageo is up Sevenfold over the last 22 23 years so absolutely done so much better than not only the UK Market but the global index as well and to me I don't find that difficult to understand do you know I mean if if you are the world's if you own the world's best Spirits Brands and consumption of spirits and premium alcohol has been rising and will continue I don't find that difficult to say why wouldn't you want a big investment in diagio so so to me that's a really powerful argument for active investment that you can recognize a real obvious winner but then again it's only obvious in hindsight you'll tell me and I understand the power of of of trackers and passive strategies as well of course your answer is right there's there's room for both I do think that there's an emotional aspect to it and one that shouldn't be underestimated I'm so lucky that in my career I've been effectively been able to pursue a hobby you you could call it a hobby you know I'm I'm fascinated by it I want to fake Mojo what's that whatever the gambling you know I want to have a bet on a company I don't think that's a bad thing and you don't get that if you're just buying a Tracker and I I just I think self-knowledge is really important if you have no interest in companies no interest in markets then you need to be in the market own a Tracker but if you've got any speculative instinct or you think you've got a perspective on why Guinness and Johnny Walker you know why they're such wonderful brands that have take an active position in a in a magnificent company like that is that a good answer it's a great answer and leads into our final question which you probably half answered already we mentioned at the top that you've been there in the city certainly investing for 40 years as far as I know you've got no intention of retiring just yet so what I was going to ask you is that after such a stint what continues to bounce you out of bed in the morning kicking the bum from the white that's normally that's normally the first thing um to be grubby grubby with you I've got quite a lot of skin in the game I mean I I you know I I this is my I hesitate to say wealth It Is wealth by many people it's right it's important that I get this right and that that's a powerful motivation I listen I'm sure it's like like you it's it's just the Curiosity isn't it it's the Curiosity to find out what's going to happen next you know I I've not had a fantastic time over the last couple of years in terms of performance and even when it isn't working out necessarily I still want to know what's going to happen next or at least why am I wrong you know if prices are telling me I'm wrong okay demonstrate to me what I've got wrong and somehow that that's kept me going I won't say it's kept me young guys kept me going joined the club I've been in the uh City 40 years myself this year and it's that idea of a never Having learned or knowing everything and B simply not knowing what today is going to bring which uh is just that that motivation that you need I agree anyway marvelous to chat with you as ever Nick thank you very much indeed for your time and of course for Nick's valuable insights and thank you for watching I'll be back soon with another Richard Hunter interview but in the meantime you can subscribe to the interactive investor YouTube channel for free by by selecting the Subscribe button and of course find more investment insight and ideas at II dot Co dot UK bye for now
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