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Nick Train: ‘the Americans have discovered Guinness!’

interactive investor · 2025-02-26 · 유튜브 시청 2,797 · Board Views 8 · International

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저자: NickTrain · 외국인

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Nick Train는 최근 단기 수익률 부진에 대해 사과하며, 최근 3~4개월은 성과가 나아졌고 NAV와 주가가 상승했다고 언급. 디아지오(Diageo)는 미국 매출 부진 우려에도 미국 경제 성장, 프리미엄 테킬라·기네스 성장을 근거로 향후 실적 회복 가능성을 강조. 자사주 매입과 할인율 축소 노력은 주주에게 긍정적이라고 평가하며, 본인도 해당 펀드에 개인 자금을 투자하고 있다고 밝힘.

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01. hello and welcome to the latest Insider interview Our Guest today is Nick train who manages the Finsbury growth and income Investment Trust and the lindel train UK Equity Fund Nick thank you very much for coming into the studio it's my pleasure Sam I think let's find out performance over the short run has been dis pointing and that's something that you've apologized for so why have returns lagged The Benchmark and what could be a catalyst for better returns it it's been such a privilege for me over my career to have the responsibility the stewardship of other people's precious savings and I know how precious people's savings are because my savings are also invested um in in these IES that we're we're we're talking about it's both disappointing and almost mortifying for me that the for a period of time we can't keep up with a with an index that we can't make money maybe people disagree with me I don't know but I I just feel that that when you can buy a Tracker fund and get index performance and we don't do as well as a Tracker fund personally I feel disappointed by that and I feel that I should apolog oliz for it I hope in what I've said now and you know what we've written people recognize that the commitment the the energy that we we put into getting it right it it's still there there's no s there's no complacency markets are tough you know markets are tough and they will they will find ways to to to bite you um I mean we said earlier um I I think part of the issue looking at it completely candidly and this is I think is something that all investors should be aware of is that sometimes your greatest successes become the basis for your subsequent disappointments you know I look at um we've talked about diio I look at unil which has been a bit disappointing over the last 2 or three years as well we've owned those for nearly quarter of a Century actually probably longer but but Lino train and actually if you'd held them for a quarter of a century you would be delighted they've done really well um but they haven't done so well over the last five or six years and uh We've needed to Think Through why they've not done so well and decide whether or not we've been willing to stick or add or or exit and that that complex of consum branded Goods companies that had all done so well we've we've had to consider so sticking with these companies what could be a catalyst for a turnaround there at the moment um the the big concern about diio as I understand it is that its biggest profit generator which is North America has been a bit disappointing and there are uncertainties about alcohol consumption in in North America but the fact is that diio derives nearly half of its profits from the United States and the United States is by Common consent the most dynamic technologically advanced strong population growth wealth creating economy on the planet I think that it wouldn't take a great deal I don't know when or quite how I don't know I don't think it would take a great deal for people to suddenly say oh you know at the moment they're saying oh Di's got a problem because half the profits come from the United States well maybe in 18 months time people will say Do You Realize Dio gets half of its profits from the United States the econom is growing people are back in the bars premium tequila is going gang busters oh by the way the Americans have discovered Guinness which they have by the way Guinness is growing very very strongly in the United States as it is elsewhere in the world Guinness is becoming a major brand in the United States we need to buy you know we need to invest in this company so that's that's kind of what I would hope for I don't want to talk about politics I don't want to talk about individual politicians but but conceptualizing what the current president of the United State States wants which is a strong US economy and a strong dollar that is a massive Strategic Benefit for diio over time is this one of the hardest periods of your long investment career and what lessons from your career you're applying now to manage money well in 2025 you know I observe that in different phases of stock market Cycles um experience can the most valuable thing and at other times and this is true experience can be a huge drag on performance and and decision making there are times when you need a Brand New Perspective and that's much better brought to bear by a younger individual do you know what I mean um so I don't know I don't know actually how valuable my my experience or anybody's experience is um what what I do know is that to the extent that I we have a chance of meeting our aspirations um we have to adere to the stated process that we have and you're kind enough to say that the long-term track record is still competitive let's hope we can keep that longer term track record going although that means better performance this year and next year that long-term track record has come from running a highly concentrated portfolio focused on investments in what are clearly substantive world-class companies and I think when you look at Finsbury portfolio today I I actually don't think anybody would disagree that what we're invested in it's definitely concentrated and it's definitely concentrated on what are clearly worldclass companies and in the past that's been a very rewarding thing for my investors let's pray for everybody's sake you know that it it proves to be the case in 2025 and Beyond the trust fins growth and income is on a 6% discount and it's traded premium in the past one of the big themes in the Investment Trust world at the moment is sber capital a US activist hedge fund looking to close discounts on a number of investment trusts so has this changed how you approach the discount and what is the board doing to narrow that discount I don't think specifically the Advent of the hedge fund that you've mentioned I don't want to say the name really I don't think that affects um the board's thinking um that Finsbury has been a dedicated and committed buyb backer of of shares what's the right terminology for that the company has bought back a lot of shares and buys back shares regularly and I think that the board deserved tremendous credit for their willingness to retire Equity every time they buy back shares they increase the value of the remaining shares for those shareholders who haven't sold um we've been talking about disappointing performance actually actually I think I'm allowed to say this over the last three or four months performance has been rather better and as a result both the nav and the share price have gone up and what it means is that the board has retired a lot of shares at a lower share price than today that's hugely ACC creative for shareholders who don't sell and I encourage the board I know the board will continue to behave in that shareholder friendly shareholder friendly way um listen I I I it it's been quite an extreme instance over the last year of activists on Investment Trust share registers but it's not new um for as long as I can remember remember underperforming Investment Trust I'm not saying any or all of these were underperforming but underperforming investment trusts have always attracted um potentially hostile stake building and what I would say as a as a an investor in an investment trust is that's one of the major competitive advantages that investment trusts offer you that there is of often a market sanctioned discipline for disappointing performance which is that if it goes on for too long somebody's going to step in and make make boards um create value for for owners so I I think that that's a that's a feature of Investment Trust and it's one that investors should be grateful for on the topic of governance there is a continuation vote scheduled for early 2026 on FS growth and income so why is there a vote and how would you urge shareholders to vote I would say read the report and accounts and see what the chairman has said it's it's his and the board's decision okay and I would urge shareholders to vote in a way that they think maximizes the long-term value of their Investments you run two UK portfolios vsby growth and income is the Investment Trust Lind will train UK Equity is the ended fund and that's a member of our Super 60 Best Buy list so what are the differences between these two vehicles they're both my babies I love them both it's a matter of public record that my own personal investment is in the shares of the Investment Trust um that is in no way disparaging the investment opportunity presented by the open-ended fund but what I would say is that the open-ended fund of course off offers instant liquidity at nav and if that is of importance to an investor then the open-ended vehicle is superior I'm not proposing ever to sell my shares in Finsbury growth and income trust therefore I don't need the liquidity and therefore for me to access the shares at a at a modest discount to to to net asset value it just enhances the long-term return that I'm hoping to earn for for me and my my family and finally although it's something we've touched on already in this interview do you personally invest in your portfolios I do I do yes yes I I guess I have been talking about that a moment or so ago you know I mentioned earlier that it's such a privilege such a privilege um to to have this stewardship responsibility for other people's savings um I one of the ways I hope that I've responded to and thanked investors for that privilege is by committing my Capital alongside uh th th those other investors and I've no doubt that proportionately speaking I personally have more of my net worth invested in this UK Equity strategy than anybody else and I bought a few shares actually yesterday I told my wife and she said well why have you done that and I said well because I think really that it's a great investment opportunity I mean the poor performance the fact that the nav has gone sideways for three or four years that's a bit in my mind that's a big opportunity it's an investment opportunity but that it's my way of saying to fellow investors how grateful I am for the privilege they've given me to look after this Capital Nick thanks very much for coming into our studio video it's been delightful thank you and that's all we've got time for today you can check out more inside of interviews on our YouTube channel where you can like comment and subscribe see you next time

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