저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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Pershing Square Holdings는 10개 상장사에 집중 투자하는 영구자본 투자지주회사로, 2020년 상반기 주가 62% 상승을 기록했다. 운용 철학은 단순하고 예측 가능한 잉여현금흐름을 창출하는 초장기 성장 기업(스타벅스, 칩틀, 힐튼, 로우스, 애질런트 등)에 장기 집중 투자하는 것이다. 이번 팬데믹에서도 이들 기업은 버텨낼 것으로 봤다. 2020년 2월 말 신용스프레드 확대에 베팅한 대규모 헤지를 약 2,700만 달러에 구매해 3월 중순 약 26억 달러로 실현했고, 이 자금으로 기존 보유 종목을 저가에 추가 매수했다. 회사는 영국 상장 펀드 구조로 미국 법인세를 피하고 있으며, 직원들이 지분의 약 25%를 보유해 개인 투자 수단 성격이 강하다. 현재 NAV 대비 약 30% 할인에 거래 중이며, 자사주 5,000만 주를 할인가에 매입했다. 할인 축소의 핵심 촉매로 FTSE 100 편입을 꼽았고, 12월 1일 편입 발표를 앞두고 있다고 강조했다. 2015~2016년 핵심 전략에서 벗어난 실수로 약 30% 하락을 겪었으나, 이후 원칙 재정비와 최근 3년간의 강한 성과로 회복했다고 설명했다. 핵심 보유 종목 성과로 애질런트 연초 대비 +35%, 칩틀 +52%, 로우스 +28~29%, 스타벅스 +12%가 언급됐고, 하워드휴즈는 -40%였다. 전반적으로 투자 논리와 실적에 대한 자신감을 보이며, FTSE 편입과 할인 축소를 장기 가치 실현의 열쇠로 제시했다.
다듬은 글
hello today i have with me bill ackman one of the world's best-known investors and the man behind hedge fund pershing square holdings hello bill thanks for joining me thanks for having me um first of all could you please tell us a little bit about your uk listed fund pershing square holdings and what it actually does sure so we actually think of pershing square holdings as a investment holding company that is structured as a closed end fund and you know my mentor in the business uh i would say my informal or unofficial mentors warren buffett and warren buffett for 15 years ran out activist hedge fund that started in 1956 and then in 1969 he merged it with what he called a crappy textile company called berkshire hathaway and i've learned a lot from mr buffett um reading everything he's written watching as many speeches as he's given um and uh you know persian square started out as an activist hedge fund in 2000 january 2004 and then over time uh our ambition was to get to uh manage a public company which had effectively permanent capital and that's what persian square holdings ambitions had been we took the entity public october of 2014 at that time it represented only about a third of our capital and now it's our principal vehicle by which we invest capital so it's uh entity today has uh equity value of about 9.2 billion we've got 2.2 billion dollars over 2.1 billion of unsecured uh bonds elongated bonds uh that we have outstanding a portion will refinance in about two years and we own 10 companies uh so think of this as an investment holding company we have 10 companies and we are a meaningful and influential investor in each of them by virtue of being typically one of the large shareholders uh often with representation on the board of directors and you know fairly large concentrated positions and our goal is to compound our nav at a high rate over a very long period of time through this entity the employees of persian square the manager own a little more than 25 of the outstanding shares of the entity so it we do view it as our personal investment vehicle in the sense that we we have a very large stake uh individually and our goal uh in the benefit of this structure why are we a u.s manager based in europe the benefit here is we can operate like an investment holding company without having to pay entity level taxation so if this entity were in the u.s we'd have to pay 35 or now 21 corporate tax and here we can operate much more efficiently but the ambition is to own the greatest businesses in the world own businesses we can own for a decade or more and help them uh operate and improve their uh businesses over time i mean investors clearly like the business i mean the share price is up around 62 in 2020 so far and that's despite it having no tech investments so obviously tech stocks have grabbed all the headlines this year i mean with with that stunning games and how has your fund done it so the answer is we've owned uh some remarkable businesses uh our strategy is to buy what we call simple predictable free cash flow of generative businesses uh businesses that warren buffett would describe as having a moat around them you know with very high barriers to entry uh what we call super durable growth companies and these kind with strong balance sheets and if you own super durable growth companies with strong balance sheets and you buy them at the right price uh regardless of the economic environment you can do very very well and um so one the assets uh the companies that we've owned uh you know starbucks uh even businesses like hilton uh lowe's agilent um you know the chipotle uh restaurant brands these companies uh can survive the great flood and and they were prepared for and in fact we think our long-term beneficiaries if i have to say of of the pandemic the other way we uh made money this year which was uh unusual although this is sort of the second time we face this kind of environment is we were very early to be concerned about the pandemic as a a both a health threat and also an economic a global economic threat and the way we and rather than sell our portfolio which we thought would be impacted in the short term we built a very large notional hedge in late february so we bet that if you will that credit spreads on bonds would widen substantially and it was a very asymmetric bet because at the time we put the it really was a trade it's the time about the trade on um or bought insurance against uh the credit markets the credit markets were at all pretty close to the all-time tightest level so it was hard to envision a scenario in which a global pandemic's spreading widely and what we believe would be a series of economic shutdowns perhaps a global economic shutdown would cause credit spreads to widen so we we spent really pennies on premium ultimately 27 million dollars buying the insurance and we realized that 2.6 2.6 billion of proceeds uh in the middle of march and then we redeployed those proceeds buying equities and so we bought more of our existing holdings and so if you were a shareholder of persian square holdings from the beginning of the year you had the benefit of our protecting you from the declines uh the realization of those profits and then the reinvestment of those profits and pretty much the same portfolio but at very much more attractive prices one way to think about it it's if we had an investor show up and put two billion dollars into purging square holdings at nav and uh not take any shares it was like a gift and we took the gift and we redeployed it in the existing assets and then as markets have recovered which was our expectation um you know that our companies have recovered and some have done quite well just looking at the screen uh you know agilent's up 35 year-to-date chipotle is up 52 year-to-date lows is up 28 29 year-to-date starbucks is up 12 here today uh those are really a number of our largest uh holdings and the others are not in with a few exceptions howard hughes is down 40 here today it's a real estate development company in the u.s but overall the our investments have done well and we have the benefit of this large hedge in the deployment of the capital now bill the fund is trading at a discount and asset value about 30 what do you plan to do about it sure so we find that to be first of all an extraordinary discount you know we own 10 liquid new york stock exchange listed companies and you can actually calculate our nav every day uh so it's not a question of transparency uh we've bought in 50 million of the 250 million shares that are outstanding uh at a discount to nav so it's not about uh the board's interest in taking advantage uh of a discount but i think it's largely due to the fact that you have a u.s manager a u.s domiciled collection of companies and a uk listed entity that gets ignored because because it people think of it as a us company they don't realize even that it's available to be purchased in the uk but what's interesting is on december 1st uh the listing uh i guess panel uh decides on which companies should join the ftse 100 if that decision were determined today we would be the next company admitted uh to the index so uh that's a week away and so my view is ftse 100 inclusion is probably the most significant potential catalyst for pershing square holdings i can't say whether it's going to happen or not obviously depends on our market cap but uh you know at nav we'd be actually you know pretty high up on the list of ftse 100 companies it's a remarkable discount at 30 percent um and uh you know we'll see what happens on on december 1st but i think that's an important catalyst if we become part of the ftse 100 there's only one other closed end fund in the ftse 100 which trades at or around uh nav uh and as far as i know there are really no other companies in the ftse 100 that trade a discount to book value we don't really think of pershing square holdings as a fund i think of it as a business that over the last 17 years has generated a 16 percent return on equity and if you look at companies over the last 16 17 years generated 16 returns on equity they traded at least two times book value and you know often two and a half to three times book value here you have a company that's earned 16 return on equity for the last 17 years you know trading at it at a 30 you know whatever 70 of book value uh considering that we've earned north you know north of almost 58 are we last year 62 percent this year um i just think that uh at some point people are going to notice and if we're included in the index then the index funds need to buy us and then the active managers that track the the uh ftse 100 will have to at least take a look at us and i think that increased visibility and that just the demand from index funds will be a catalyst and hopefully materially reducing the discount when we launched the entity in october 2014 we traded at a you know two to five percent discount over time we went through one of the most challenging periods in the 17-year history of the firm in circa 15 and 16 we lost some people's confidence we had a 30 decline due to uh i would say veering from our core strategy you put your hand in the fire at burns you don't make that mistake again we kind of regrouped uh employees myself purchased uh 25 of the company uh or increased our stake to 25 by buying stock in the open market uh i put little uh tombstones on everyone's desk with our core principles a bit like moses 10 commandments and ever since we did that we've made really a remarkable recovery we've had three extraordinary years um and uh looking forward to closing this one out on great terms but at some point we're gonna get noticed and i think that ftse inclusion is gonna be the catalyst bill ackman pershing square holdings thanks very much for joining me today thank you so much appreciate it you
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