저자: RayDalio/BoHines—영상진행자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Dalio는 부채·내부정치 분열·세계질서 재편·기술변화가 겹쳐 통화질서 붕괴 위험이 있으며 1930년대와 유사하다고 주장. 진행자는 비트코인이 이 전환의 핵심 수혜 자산이라고 주장하며, 미국 전략적 비트코인 비축(SBR) 정책과 금 재평가(Bitcoin Act 2025) 아이디어를 근거로 제시. Hines는 미국이 가능한 한 많은 비트코인을 확보하길 원한다고 발언. Galaxy 데이터상 암호화폐 레버리지가 2024년 말 기준 저점 수준이라 사이클 초기라고 주장.
다듬은 글
Legendary investor Ray Dalio warns of something coming that is far more profound than a recession. He lays out his thesis of five cyclical forces converging right now that stand to change the world as we know it. And we hear from Trump's executive director of digital assets, Bo Hines, as he expands on the plans to make America the Bitcoin superpower of the world.
How are these two linked? Could Bitcoin be the wild card that shapes this new emerging global monetary order? Plus, we look at brand new data that reveals we may be much earlier in this Bitcoin cycle than we previously thought. Mounting debt, internal and external political and geopolitical conflict, and massive technological advancements are all converging today and stand to completely change the world as we know it.
Bitcoiners have been talking about this kind of forth turning style event for quite a while now. But as tariffs lead to an all-out trade war, these realities are becoming impossible to ignore. Someone else who has been talking about this changing world order for a long time is legendary investor Ray Dalio.
Dalio was on NBC News this week talking about why fears of a recession are massively underplaying what we're really on the verge of today. I think it's important to note you consider yourself to be apolitical and you say that the tariff problem is a symptom of a much greater problem. What do you mean by that?
There are basically five big forces through history that drive everything. First, there's the money, credit, debt, economic cycle in which there's a building up of debt in a cyclical way that becomes too large and we're going to have problems. We're going to have a government debt problem. Maybe we can get into this.
The second big force through time is the internal conflict force. The left and the right, differences in wealth and values causing a conflict that we're seeing changing our political order. So, the first is changing our monetary order. The second is changing our political order internally. And then the third is the great world order.
The how countries deal with each other when there's a rising power challenging existing power. And now we are going from multilateralism which is largely an American world order type of thing to unilateral world order in which there's great conflict. And the other two factors all through history have been acts of nature, droughts, floods and pandemics.
And number four is technology. technology changing and how they are coming together are the main forces behind this. Right now we are at a decisionmaking point and very close to a recession and I'm worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't handled well. A recession is two negative quarters of GDP and whether it goes slightly there we always have those things.
We have something that's much more profound. We have a breaking down of the monetary order. we are going to change the monetary order because we can spend the amounts of money. So we have that problem and when we talk about the dollar and we talk about tariffs we have that we are having a profound changes in our domestic order how ruling is existing and we're having profound changes in the world order.
Such times are very much like the 1930s. I've studied history and this repeats over and over again. So if you take tariffs, if you take debt, if you take the rising power challenging existing power, if you take those factors and look at the factors that those changes in the orders, the systems are very disruptive.
How that's handled could produce something that is much worse than a recession. Dio's framework lays out the historic inflection point we find ourselves in today. A convergence of five forces. unsustainable debt cycles, internal political fragmentation, a shifting world order, acts of nature, and exponential technological change.
At the center of this convergence is the breakdown of the monetary order, a theme both Dallio and Bitcoiners have emphasized repeatedly over the years. But I think what many people aren't particularly seeing is how Bitcoin fits into this thesis like a perfectly designed puzzle piece. In many ways, it represents the technological leap that Dallio emphasized as his final converging force.
Bitcoin represents a monetary innovation born out of necessity. In a world where fiat currencies are strained under mounting debt and trust in central banks erode, Bitcoin offers an apolitical, decentralized, and digitally native alternative, one that's resistant to debasement and censorship. If the old monetary order is indeed unraveling, then Bitcoin is much more than just a hedge.
It stands to become the base layer of a new system. As trust and legacy institution continue to fade, and nations scramble for leverage in this changing order, Bitcoin's fixed supply and open architecture make it a serious contender for individuals, companies, corporations, and nation states seeking sovereignty in a time of monetary chaos and uncertainty.
If all of this was happening and we didn't have the strongest economic power in the world taking a serious look at Bitcoin, it would still be incredibly bullish. But as we all know, the Trump administration is looking very deeply at Bitcoin as a means to gain a global economic advantage. The White House has repeatedly said that they want to be the Bitcoin superpower of the world.
When you add all of this together, it becomes crystal clear that we're on the verge of something incredible. Bo Hines, who serves as the executive director of the President's Council of Adviserss on Digital Assets, was on the Pomp podcast yesterday, and he talked about this bold strategy. The president has made it very clear that we're going to be the Bitcoin superpower of the globe.
He said that repeatedly. Sounds great. It does. It's amazing. And David and I worked diligently with many others inside of the White House to craft what we thought was the best solution for the strategic Bitcoin reserve. And look, we wanted to recognize Bitcoin for being unique because it is. It's a commodity, not a security.
It has intrinsic stored value. It has the immaculate conception as David likes to say. And the way that we set this up, we recognized it for what it is, which is being unique. And then we also had the digital assets national stockpile because really we we wanted to encourage the innovation that's happening across other ecosystems in the space as well.
But we wanted to harness Bitcoin for the American people. We view it as being in our long-term interest to hold on to this asset. We obviously have made it very clear that we want to acquire as much as we can get. I've said that repeatedly throughout my time on the speaking circuit over the circuit over the course of the last few months.
And look, at the end of the day, it stipulates that we have to acquire Bitcoin in budgetneutral ways that don't cost a taxpayer a dime. With that being said, I think that we have, as the president likes to say, many high IQ people working on these solutions and we're going to have countless ideas on how we can accomplish this.
And look, we have Secretary Lutnik at Commerce. We have Secretary Besson at the Treasury, uh, many other great actors inside the inter agency working group and we'll come together and flesh out some of these ideas and really get to the best solution. But we're very confident that we can do and we'll start doing that in short order.
So again, the Trump administration has repeatedly said publicly that they are looking at ways to accumulate Bitcoin. I think this is maybe the third or fourth time someone from the administration has said this, but for some reason the market is not taking them at their word. It seems it's waiting for them to put their money where their mouth is and actually execute the buy.
So what are some ways that they are currently looking at in order to accumulate Bitcoin? Bohines names a few. I think that Senator Lemus has really an interesting idea with the Bitcoin Act of 2025, which I know has taken the community by storm. But here, what you would do is you'd revalue the gold certificates that we currently have at Treasury.
Most of which are valued, I think, around like $43 an ounce, which is a lot lower than what it's really worth. Correct. Yeah. So, now we're sitting at what $3,100 an ounce with being the price of gold. And if you took that value, what you could do is use that extra funding in order to buy more Bitcoin that could be used for the reserve.
But that's just one idea. And that's currently circulating. its way through Capitol Hill and we'll see how many co-sponsors she can get and how she can pull her colleagues on board. But we're looking at at many creative ways, whether it be from tariffs, whether it be from something else. There's literally countless ways in which you can do this.
And I'll defer to some of our members inside of the inter agency working group to see what ideas they come up with inside of their own shops. But we'll we'll look at everything. Everything's on the table. And like we've said, we want as much as we can get. So we're going to make sure that no stone is unturned as we start fleshing out some of these processes.
Do you have a personal goal for the number of Bitcoin that the United States could have? I've heard 1 million thrown out there as a nice big round number. Yeah, I've heard a lot of different senators and other folks on the Hill talk about specific numbers, but I'd like it to be infinite. I want as much as we can possibly accumulate.
And the reality is I've told many people this and especially journalists is they say, "Is there an exact number?" No, not really. Because that's like saying, "How much gold do you want as a country?" Anything else with intrinsic stored value, you want as much as you can possibly accumulate. And that's no different with Bitcoin.
anything with intrinsic stored value, you want as much as you can possibly accumulate. You really can't get much more definitive as to how the US government is thinking about their Bitcoin strategy than that. So, I think Dalio's thesis and the current administration's plans for a strategic Bitcoin reserve together are the signal here.
And the fact that the market hasn't pieced all of this together yet is astounding. Bitcoin is the wild card almost no one in power is prepared for. It solves precisely the problems Dalio describes. monetary debasement, loss of trust, geopolitical uncertainty, and the need for digital native settlement in a fragmented world.
The monetary order is changing, but it won't be restructured by policy. It will be outflanked by code. So, in a world where the monetary order is unraveling, and Bitcoin is emerging as a strategic asset, BTC and DC provides a forum for open discussion about Bitcoin's role on the global financial stage and how public policy could help us shepherd in the Bitcoin era.
Join influential figures like Michael Sailor and Adam Back this September in Washington DC to help shape the future of finance. Get your tickets today at btcand.com and be a part of the conversation that could redefine the global economic landscape. And a quick shout out to MEA, the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner for supporting this show and for helping make Bitcoin the world's most decentralized and secure monetary network.
Now, before I leave you, I want to show you some new data that has just come out from Galaxy Digital that provides even more evidence that we may be much earlier in this Bitcoin bull cycle than we thought. This chart shows the buildup of leverage in the entire crypto industry. And since the FDX BlockFi Genesis crash in late 2022, you can see the Bitcoin market has massively deleveraged.
Current Bitcoin collateralized debt only stands at $10 billion, less than 1% of Bitcoin's entire market cap. A great way to see where you are in the cycle is the buildup of leverage. As when hype and euphoria begin to spike, leverage follows. So, as of the end of 2024, you can see leverage is incredibly low compared to the peak of last cycle.
Just some additional food for thought, but I'd love to hear what you think of all this. So, let me know in the comments below. Like this video, share it with friends, subscribe to the channel, and hit that notification bell so you don't miss the next video. Thanks for watching and remember tick tock next
Comments 0