저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 CNBC의 Tom Lee 발언을 중심으로 비트코인 단기 저점 테스트 후 연준 금리인하·QT 종료·관세 이슈 해소 기대로 연말까지 상승 가능성을 제시. 목표가 150k 이상을 언급. 이어 Larry Fink(블랙록) 서한의 미국 부채 확대와 달러 기축 지위 약화 위험, 비트코인 대안 가능성을 다루며, 스테이블코인 입법이 달러 지위를 보호한다는 Tom Lee 주장을 소개. 진행자들은 Bessent 발언(새로운 브레턴우즈 체제)과 CBO 장기 부채 전망을 함께 언급.
다듬은 글
This is Tom Lee on CNBC. It's also got some price and price prediction and price action stuff in there. I actually meant to play it earlier in the show, but Bitcoin's testing near-term lows, I guess again. It's been under 80. It's not quite there yet. It definitely is a risk-off trade and when the Nasdaq goes down, Bitcoin seems to go down.
But it also really likes the idea of more Fed rate cuts or the Fed being more more lenient. So if we get that on Friday, is this a decent time to to be stacking? I think so. You do? At 80? Yeah, I think part of this was Bitcoin seasonally was just not going to be attractive until after March ends. And now we're finally exiting March, and so I think not only is the calendar looking better, but as you're saying, Fed and central banks are easing, QT's ending.
I think that with positive Washington tailwinds means I think Bitcoin can do well to the end of the year. People love it when I ask you what your end target is on Bitcoin. Yeah. Makes people very excited. Yes. And What crazy high again? I think it's still 150 or higher is possible. I know it doesn't feel like it, but once we get through this tariff and that agenda around tariffs, markets can look forward to things that could be positive.
agree with what Larry thinks to say just about the idea that the dollar could suffer as a result? And it would affect Bitcoin. Yeah. Yes, I'd say that Washington understands that too. That's why stablecoin really getting the right sort of legislation for stablecoins important because in crypto, when it comes to stablecoins, the dollar is way more dominant there than it is in traditional markets.
So I think you actually protect the dollar with stablecoin legislation. Yeah, several good ideas there. We obviously talked about Joe Kernan started out saying obviously Bitcoin's correlated to stocks and so blah blah blah. The next day, I think it was the next day from this clip, we saw what we talked about at the top of the show, that sort of decoupling.
So I don't think it's so obvious, but it is certainly mostly been the case. He then also got we got into price action. He's bullish still. We're going to go to 150. That's in coming into like late like spring and early summer and stuff, we'll start seeing some action. Then it finished up talking about Larry Fink's comments and we actually we can actually dive into that now, John.
You want to take it from here? Yeah, perfect. Thank you, Becky Quick for the segue at the end of the clip. So, this is Larry Fink writing I believe he they call it like an annual letter to BlackRock shareholders or some sort of annual investment letter type of thing. And as many people like myself did, pulled it up and control F for Bitcoin.
So, that this is the main Bitcoin section here. All the other references to Bitcoin in this particular BlackRock letter were about their IBIT like their launch saying this the IBIT launched at this, it was one of the best of all time, blah blah blah. That's all interesting, but um what I found more interesting is people like Larry Fink and BlackRock talking about the macroeconomic implications of Bitcoin rather than their particular product.
So, as you can see at the top here, it's can Bitcoin eat away at the US dollar's reserve status. There's some text here. I will just read the last line of that section. And it says, "If the US doesn't get its debt under control, if deficits keep ballooning, America risks losing that position to digital assets like Bitcoin." And then the chart shows US federal debt held by the public.
Case anyone's wondering what by the public means, this strips out debt that an intra-governmental agency might hold like Social Security for example. And it does make sense to strip that out cuz that's literally like one pocket of the government owing debt to the other pocket, you can just cancel those out.
So, that's why you'll see different numbers quoted for debt to GDP. Sometimes you'll see something like one in the 120s, other times you'll see this number that is more like 100. This strips out the debt that social security owns. Either way, it's a very high number. We always want to make sure you're comparing apples to apples there, but basically takeaway is federal debt as a percentage of GDP is the highest it's been since World War II.
There's a bunch of things we did after World War II to get that debt down. They're pretty all pretty draconian measures, and I think the next few years is going to be policy makers realizing that it's really hard to get that debt down. And some policy makers, some parts of the government have real have forecasted that they're not even forecasting that we will get the debt down.
There's the US CBO Congressional Budget Office. They actually released their 30-year budget outlook. Did you guys see this? It made like zero waves on Twitter. I've been meaning to do a thread on it. This is the thing with the pink line chart where they forecast 30 years in the future what debt to GDP is going to do.
And they just put out the latest 30-year forecast. And I'll I'll do a thread on it soon, but the punchline is that it's still a line that goes up into the right. They're not really forecasting for it to come down anytime soon. Was that north of 50 trillion or something crazy? So, funny you asked that, Matt.
They don't make the total debt number readily available. Personally, I believe that's by design. They don't cuz that's such a big headline number. They make you calculate it. It's It's just simple math, but they make you They'll give you the GDP number on one page. They'll give you debt to GDP, and you have to calculate what that implies for the debt.
But, I don't I think they don't want a big headline that says, "We forecast the US will have 150 trillion of debt by the year 2055." I think to build on Fink's comments and then go into CBO and some of the other things like Scott Bessent talked about and this is a quote. I'll just read it real quick.
In the next few years, we're going to have some sort of a grand economic reordering, something equivalent to a new Bretton Woods. There's a very good chance that it happens in the next 4 years. I want to be a part of it. And so, talking about this restructuring, talking about this debt, the amount that's held, think talking about Bitcoin.
I like how he has to hedge it a little bit so he can like still support broader crypto issues and projects and stuff. So, he opens the door for BlackRock to do that. He can't just say it's Bitcoin and and other digital assets. To me, they're telling you like this is where it's going to go. There There's got to be something that's got to be changing.
I think that's like a big theme of the a lot of this conversation, whether it's the tariffs, whether it's the debt situation, how to increase the dollar. Tom Lee talked about that. Hey, stablecoins are going to be part of keeping the dollar relevant and making sure we get dollars around the globe. And that is all coming to a head.
I also think the other thing interesting in that clip from from Tom Lee was actually at the beginning with Joe Kernan. Can we appreciate him talking about stacking? Like using that term on CNBC of just saying stack He's orange-pilled me. Incredible. I love that. Joe's based. I love it, too. The fact you have a a CNBC host saying stacking.
And I know he's pro-Bitcoin and it's always fun to see him push back on guests that are anti-Bitcoin. But, again, people talk about the Overton window, the Overton window. Stacking on on the financial media like that is is pretty cool. Yeah, Joe hangs out on Bitcoin Twitter. He's probably watching the show, actually. Hey, Joe. We appreciate you, man. He's a consumer of Bitcoin media. Yep.
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