저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라는 10년 내 시총 10조달러(약 10배) 가능성이 있다고 주장. 기가팩토리 복제(copy-paste) 단계 진입 시 생산량이 급증해 펀더멘털이 바뀐다고 봄. 공급망 영향력, 옵티머스 로봇 잠재력, FSD·로보택시는 후순위. 본인은 테슬라 주식 약 50%(금융자산 기준) 보유 중이며 이후 추가 매수했다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
foreign here all right so yesterday was at the Cyber Rodeo today I am at the Tesla con event over here the Texas owners called absolutely amazing people here's the thing we got to talk about what I think about Tesla I'm about 50 in on Tesla in terms of my stock portfolio not considering my real estate portfolio and let me just say not just because there was an event yesterday but over the last two to three months I've been thinking this I gotta get these thoughts out so I'm gonna get some thoughts out some excitement out up front and then I'm going to talk to you about what Elon said yesterday and how that relates to some of the excitement as well as other things that have been researching studying and coming to understand so let's get started so we're going to talk about past present and future first of all I quite frankly think that Tesla is probably going to break 10 trillion dollars of market cap within 10 years that's a 10x within 10 years which is absolutely remarkable I know it sounds crazy but I'm going to tell you why I believe that Giga Austin and Giga Berlin were actually the opportunity for Elon to say you know what let's see how quickly we can build the perfect Factory and so they did Berlin and a giga Texas why because they've got the 4680 cell line for the structural battery packs they make their Motors in-house they're not shipping Parts in they're shipping raw materials and and they're putting the rest together in the factory it's really incredible I saw these assembly lines in person yesterday it's absolutely phenomenal not only this Tesla is a robotics manufacturer they bought a robotics company in 2016 in Germany and that's still where they make a lot of their robots now I know they also Outsource some of their robots but I'll tell you the tech technology Tesla has in robotics makes them probably the number one robotics play in stocks but it's not so much that we care about investing in the machines within the gigafactories even though Elon Musk says the factories are the product Elon Musk saying that the factories of the product reminded me about what's really next for Tesla it's not so much new exciting product announcement announcements like Ford coming out with a different car you know every six months and they yay or whatever right or oh it's the new 2022 model or whatever and I don't mean to back and forth actually I kind of do but anyway here's what is so exciting me is now that we went through Giga Berlin and we went through Giga Austin I think the next phase of Tesla is announcing not one or two more gigafactories like I had been pricing into my valuation I actually think it's time Tesla goes and I won't be surprised if this happens Tesla says you know what now we're announcing five to ten new gigafactories within the next two years and then building them out in the following two years thereafter that to me is a game changer because every single fundamental analysis we have says maybe tesl just focus on scaling these factories and maybe we'll get another Factory announcement in two years or so the essay is written and what I mean by that is you can now take your work and copy and paste it everywhere and I think that's what's happening is that Tesla has perfected its essay their writing project or whatever for their English class is perfected it's the Factory The Factory is perfected and so I was just on Yahoo finance for an interview and I wore this shirt Lauren got me which is going to make Lauren hopefully very happy this is a Beer by the way but anyway uh I believe now we go into copy and paste mode for the factories and when Tesla announces that they're in copy and paste mode everybody's fundamental analyzes will change almost overnight because the amount of vehicles that Tesla can produce will explode and this is regardless of whether or not we have a blip of a recession in the next year or two who cares we're talking 10 years out here in in the grand scheme of things for Tesla getting to this market cap right and that's what we're excited about of course I'm still going to talk about what Elon Musk says but look copy and pasting the factories is what we need right now why think about it when you've got hurts who can't even buy any more Teslas and they're having to go to pole stars because Tesla don't have enough Teslas and there's so much demand for Tesla it's just like there's so much freaking wind out here today hopefully y'all don't hear this Tesla needs to build more factories so this is fundamentally changing my thesis for Tesla substantially for the better now I know it might seem a little weird to come out of two Tesla events and feel this way I would say that my consideration for this Factory Direction has been growing over the last three months especially over the last few weeks I thought this is probably the next direction for Tesla we're not so worried yet about a robo taxi though that will come and I'll touch on that as well I think it's copy and pasting the factories and when Elon told us yesterday that now they're ready for moving into the next big phase which is massive scale it just reiterated my beliefs and so I'm very excited I don't know how many factories I don't know anything that that's like you know secret info or whatever this is just my pure speculation and I'm very excited about that but we've got to understand supply chains and then talk about what Elon talked about especially that Optimus robot so one of the beautiful things that I've also been studying about Tesla is their clout in the supply chain markets see when companies work with Tesla they can get paid early they know they're going to get paid Tesla's not going to go Bank up like potentially another company but not only that not only is Tesla going to fulfill their contracts and pay but Tesla also provides two things to other companies who are supplying things to Tesla one hey we work with Tesla that's good but also when Tesla wants a special product like how amazing the heat pump is at Tesla when Tesla wants an amazing product the supply chains have to provide that amazing product they get the skills and education to make that product and now they can tell all their other customers hey not only do we work with Tesla but we also learn from Tesla so in terms of Supply chains and we know we got some limiting factors potentially with raw materials right that's always going to be an issue and I think locations for the next gigafactories will come into play for exactly sourcing those raw materials but uh in terms of as many Supply chains as we can get control of if I had to make a bet on a company that could do it best it would be Tesla Tesla has the supply chain clout and I'm not certain that other companies do uh Apple does Apple is another company that has the supply chain clout that doesn't mean it's not a problem they still have issues getting iPads right there's still out of stock on certain things but let's just say they're the best in a situation that sucks right it's like it's like the worst because everyone sucks with Supply chains right now okay good so bullish phase well part of this video one done part two that Optimus robot and then part three what Elon said so the Optimus robot look I wrote down some things for this first I'm going to start with things that seem a little wild uh but I want this to relate to you about how big this Optimus robot could be even just for simple things in your home imagine you spend I don't know what it's gonna cost five grand on a robot 10 grand on a robot whatever you spend on that once and it just lasts you it gets over the air software updates or whatever and it just lasts you for years without maintenance right plugs itself in right here are some things that in theory an Optimus robot could do for you at home and this is just my pure speculation security which again Terminator is scary uh but even dumb things like dishes folding laundry emptying the dishwasher vacuuming preparing baby food like bottles cleaning toilets stocking groceries raking watering plants all this stupid kind of stuff right now I'm just saying that to try to relate to our households but the bigger purpose here is going to be what's it going to be like in the factories well think about it semi trucks come to deliver products to factory somebody's got a forklift unload these one Optimus robot could do this somebody's got to open the boxes robot can do this somebody's got to collapse the boxes robot can do this they stop it all day freaking long unboxing y'all know you order from Amazon unboxing box it takes forever and then when you gotta collapse them and you got to bring them to the trash and all this all this stuff costs a lot of money for companies because you're paying employees to do it uh and then of course you're paying payroll taxes on top of that and so on and so forth right problem uh sorting inventory I mean you could even have Optimus robots running around a grocery store stocking shelves and doing stuff and I know there's always this concern of like oh my gosh we're going to be replacing people people will find ways to provide value we always do we provide creativity we provide value with with our skill our communication uh it it so in the near-term future I'm not worried about Humanity like losing out on jobs like we need help and more efficiency at companies this is a good thing and it's good for us to be able to hopefully bring the costs down to these robots great profit potentials for Tesla obviously but to make them accessible to people so that way they're not doing mundane stuff and instead they can learn to get you know become a real estate agent become a CPA you know provide value to the the world and actually make more money because look if you're stocking shelves at a grocery store uh you know it's fine maybe if you're 18 for a little bit but you better be thinking to yourself crap what am I going to do I'm not going to do this forever you got to get to that next level it doesn't even matter how old you are I mean you could be 50 you can become a real estate agent in three months you know hop to it so anyways okay now let's touch a little bit uh so oh yeah so Optimus this is another huge game changer I wouldn't actually be surprised if we had Optimus gigafactories in the future kind of wild but makes sense you've got car factories I don't think there's gonna be like an Optimus line yeah no no you're going to have gigafactories made for the freaking robot awesome very exciting now let's talk about what Elon said yesterday so uh Elon yesterday told us a few things that are very very exciting uh so he's obviously he talks a lot about how advanced their factories are how the 4680 line is starting this is good I saw the 4680 they're streamlining the manufacturingness of this even more than what we saw during battery day absolutely incredible they're using I saw this uh another Tesla researcher posted on Twitter about how the top and bottom of the canister that holds the 4680 is now using the same cap with only three laser etches and this is just a other way of saying Elon Musk and the team at Tesla are so brilliant to always think about how can we make it better how can we do this with less waste I love that so very very excited about that but when we look at the future about what Elon gave us he didn't give us product announcements here's what he told us massive scale is next that's all he said they didn't say we're going to make a bunch of new gigafactories but let's just translate it it makes sense and it's a game changer that nobody's pricing it next we know full self-driving is coming it's so underappreciated right now you've got maybe 60 000 beta testers I'm still complaining I still don't have my Beta thing at this point I don't even care anymore it's probably because I don't drive enough that's what I've concluded and it's true I probably wouldn't be the best beta tester because honestly I don't drive enough but anyway uh a dedicated Robo taxi coming this was pretty remarkable so there have actually been rumors that Tesla's manufacturing a vehicle without a steering wheel without a yoke and this will probably I mean it has to be uh the driverless version uh the robo taxi vehicle I'm not too super excited about that I still think that's a 20 25 2026 thing I know Elon wants to get FSD done this year 2022.
I don't think we're getting full self-driving without humans and Yokes for at least another three four five years something like that I'm actually more excited about just get more Vehicles printing get those gigafactories up in this next decade let's get that Optimus robot gigafactory going that has me much more excited than FSD FSD is like icing on the cake and and I'm not even going to begin to try to speculate in terms of how to value that because it's so underappreciated it's actually invaluable it's so it's it's so valuable it's invaluable somebody says I don't know who cares anyway I think you get the point so uh then of course uh we know the Cyber truck begins development next year at Giga Texas uh we do expect the semi truck to start production as well and uh and Elon kind of sense that the audience wasn't super happy that there weren't too many new product announcements so he's like don't worry we're going to focus on scaling this year and next year we'll focus on new products that's you know semi-cyber and then of course the robot so I think the the road map is already laid for new products we don't really need new products right now we need to fulfill the pipeline and I think that's exactly what Tesla's going to do uh and uh I bought a bunch more Tesla stock this morning that's all I have to say okay there you go so uh anyway if you want to get every single move I make in stocks program linked down below there is a coupon code I think it's cyber Kevin check that out it's a special coupon code for this excitement over Tesla oh and then throw this at the beginning this video is brought to you by cyber Kevin a coupon code in honor of the Cyber Rodeo let's go
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