저자: HowardMarks인터뷰영상,진행자미상 · 외국인
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결론: 현재 시장은 1999년 인터넷 버블과 유사한 낙관 국면이며, 가치 투자자 관점에서는 신중함이 필요하다는 취지의 인터뷰이다. [시장 국면과 버블 비교] Marks는 2009년 3월 이후 큰 침체가 없어 투자자들이 좋은 시절에 익숙해졌고, 이것이 낙관을 키운다고 진단했다. 현재 시장에 악재보다 호재에 민감한 낙관론이 우세하며, 가치 대비 가격이 높아지는 시점이라 약간의 주의가 필요하다고 했다. 가장 가까운 비교 대상은 1998~2000년 TMT 인터넷 버블이다. 니프티 피프티(1970년대)나 서브프라임(2005~07)과는 성격이 다르다고 설명했다. [AI와 버블 판단] 과거 인터넷은 e-commerce 등 비전이 비교적 명확했으나, 현재 AI가 세상을 어떻게 바꾸고 어떻게 수익이 될지는 명확하지 않다고 했다. AI 순수 기업은 매출·이익이 없는 경우가 많아 이익 기반 내재가치 산정이 어렵고, 이는 이중 베팅(성공 시 대박, 실패 시 0)에 가깝다고 평가했다. 반면 마이크로소프트, 아마존 같은 하이퍼스케일러는 기존 사업이 실적을 뒷받침한다고 했다. 생산성 향상이 있더라도 그 이익이 기업이 아닌 소비자에게 가격 인하로 돌아갈 수 있다고 지적했다. [버블 중 실수 2가지] 첫째, 현재 선도 기업이 미래에도 선도 기업일 것이라 가정하고 전 재산을 거는 것. 둘째, 선도 기업이 비싸니 상대적으로 싼 후발주자를 사는 것(복권 심리). 성공 확률이 낮으면 실패 확률은 매우 높다는 점을 상기해야 한다. [금·비트코인] Marks는 금과 비트코인은 현금흐름이 없어 내재가치 분석이 불가능하며, 가격은 시장이 지불하려는 금액일 뿐이라고 봤다. 최근 금 상승은 과거 수익률 착시일 수 있고, 2010년 말 이후 연환산 수익률은 금 7.7%, S&P500 12.7% 수준이라고 언급했다. [신용자산·기타] 2022년 이후 금리 하락 시대가 끝났다고 보며, 투자적격 채권 수익률이 약 7% 수준이라 고위험 자산 없이도 신용 상품으로 안정적 수익을 기대할 수 있다고 했다. 일반 투자자는 펀드·ETF 등 간접투자를 권했다. AI 부작용(일자리 감소와 세수 문제)에 대한 정책 대응 필요성도 언급했다. [리스크] 미래는 단일 결과가 아닌 확률분포이므로 확신에 기반한 집중 베팅을 경계해야 한다. 장기 투자 유지와 과도한 매매 자제가 핵심이다. [출연자 전망] Howard Marks: 현재 시장은 낙관이 지배적이며 버블 가능성에 주의. AI 기업 가치평가에는 큰 불확실성 존재. 금·비트코인은 내재가치 기반 투자 불가. 신용자산은 매력적.
다듬은 글
A bad, a really bad time since March of '09 when the stock market bottomed during the global financial crisis, and so people get used to good times, and the strongest comparison is to the dot-com bubble of '98-'99 -2000. The Nifty Fifty was different because it was not around one novel technology and it was around established great companies.
To the most there were no technological marvels that down in Let me share an awkward figure here. Among the friends watching this video, about 80%have not subscribed yet. If this content has been insightful for you, just hit subscribe; it's completely free but means a lot to us. The larger the channel grows, the more resources we can invest to create even better content.
Additionally, if you would like to see more in-depth investment research, you are welcome to join as a channel member. Thank you so much. a lot about the dot-com stocks in the last month of my life, things I never knew I needed to know this much about. Well, my personal preference is for a less activist central bank that normally lets the economy do its thing unless it's in danger of going off the rails, too hot or too cold.
If it's not too hot or too cold, leave it alone. So , you know, in alignment on that, we call it natural rates. Those are the rates that I think this is free market doing its thing. I'm a tough negotiator . Anything get that rate down, you and I go at it. How, Marks, what is this environment like for a value investor like yourself?
It occurs to me that we have been obsessing so much over the Fed that maybe to have taken maybe not more of a back, less front and center, that opened the door to relying once again much more on the fundamentals than we have in the past. inv our appro value it, if it's a fair price to that value, by all means, in my opinion, and the challenge is in my opinion, you ought I believe you more than doubled in that, it's been a very strong period , and I think that you know you have to recognize that when the optimism rules, prices tend to be high relative to intrinsic value, which means that it's a time for a little bit of caution.
It's not, it's not the worst thing I've ever seen. Why do you think that someone who comes more from a tactical side, we talk about all the time watching these markets respond positively to any trace of "Oh, I've got a deal coming out of Washington or Europe or the Middle East"? I mean, those of us who covered this know it's not going to happen, but there's this indefatigable optimism that the markets at the moment just can't shake.
Why is that? Well, that's a great question. But, uh, I think there are certain, uh, underlying truths which are positive, which are in the ascendancy. Uh, our economy is doing pretty well in the aggregate. Yeah. It is, in my opinion, the best performing developed world economy. So, you know, the old TINA trade, 'There Is No Alternative'.
And there is the excitement over AI, and so the optimism coming from that. And the other thing is that, you know, we haven't really had a bad, a really bad time since March of '09 when the stock market bottomed during the global financial crisis. And so, people get used to good times, and they extrapolate good times, and that contributes to the optimism.
So, I mean , certainly there is no rampant pessimism today. And when people but the point is, when the optimists are in charge, they kind of slough off the bad news. And, you know, they get excited when there's a settlement, they don't get depressed when it falls through. That's so, you have to look at that, and you have to say, "Well, there's a positive..." maybe a little defense to take care of before it.
And I think back that you wrote was engagement with potential societal ramifications of AI. You expressed very clearly acute concern about what AI promised you would...larger existential by-products. how processing those, how that builds upon what you know months ago, the fears that you have, have they gotten worse, have they compounded as a result of the conversations that you have been having?
Well, I think that...I think that a human being has to think about things. Nothing about that point I let it go, because, you know, my wife is worrying...bleeding before. And in this case, there is nothing we can do about it, nothing, certainly nothing I can do about it personally, so you roll with it.
That's all you acknowledge it. People, people thinking about...well, people are, on the other hand, I don't see anything out of government. You know, I think there should be a task force on the effect, of the coming effect of AI, and there isn't now. When they form the task force, I don't know what they can do about it.
But it might be nice to think about. And you know, if you want one little task to work on, how about this? "If people are put out of work they won't pay taxes. If AI takes their place as workers, will it take their place as taxpayers and how? So what will happen to government revenues when and if people lose their jobs?
Do you use it in your daily life? Do you ChatGPT things? Have you integrated, you know? Well, Oaktree certainly has integrated it into business. You know, we use it to martial data and do early analysis and, uh, you know, tests that used to take a long time. Uh, we don't, we certainly haven't turned business decisions over to it, investment decisions.
And, and I think that to the extent you want to be an exceptional investor, exception I don't think AI yet. You see, when you have younger people outsourcing more and more of that critical thinking to AI, we come across, we don't encourage there is a work to. Number one, if you stop doing critical thinking, you lose the muscle, I think.
And number two, I continue to say that the exceptional is human. And I think kind of like in writing, it puts a lot of active investors out of business, but not the best. It would be great if we could spot a bubble in real time, but you can't. It's something you do in hindsight. But I'm curious how bubblicious this environment looks to you right now.
You know, you've written before when you're assessing a bubble, you're looking at company behavior, investor behavior as well. There is such a swirl of handing about circular financing and the like are things that give concern. Well, look, the main thing is, as I wrote in '97, I think it was" irrational exuberance, "and that is the definition of a bubble.
We certainly have exuberance, the question is whether it's irrational. And since nobody, in my opinion, can speck out exactly what it is that AI...I don't think anybody can. That's irrational, but you have to...the possibility. And so, you know, when you tackle AI from an investment point of view, you have to think about how confident you are that that, in your judgment, have how important made by AI give people.
And are willing to take on the uncertainty which is associated with that. Is it difficult for a value investor to warm to AI companies? Number of them haven't done public, of course. Well, I think it's challenging. And when you think about, you know, the hyperscalers, Microsoft and Amazon and the like, they have other businesses which will support, for example, earnings estimates.
But if you're looking at somebody who's just in the business of AI, and they're all in on AI, their entire business is AI, may have nuanced . AI, to you know, I just think that there is an unusual degree of uncertainty in coming up with any quantification of earnings potential and of what we call intrinsic value.
I think it's, you know, it's going to be hard, and you know Warren Buffett always said we put for challenging with small. But given everything you just, all those unknowns, doesn't that make the exuberance kind of irrational? Why have you not reached that threshold? Not necessarily, because maybe it's innate, but you don't know that.
To me, you don't know, it doesn't mean that something is true. Comp tech company, you can only have done that? Yes, you. AI company, you and what are they making years? You have to say," Well, there's an unusual amount of uncertainty. "The fact that there's uncertainty present doesn't mean you don't do something, but you acknowledge it.
Next," Investing with Compound Interest "has organized Howard Marks ' October 23rd interview on the William Green podcast into eight fascinating themes, covering current markets, AI, gold, and Bitcoin. Together with his investment philosophy, it is worth sitting down to savor. First, which bubble does the current market resemble most?
Question: In August, you wrote" The Crisis of Value, "stating the market has moved from high to worrying. Compared to 1973-74, 1999-2000, and 2007-08, where are we on the scale of greed and fear? Howard Marks: The closest comparison is not in degree, but in nature—the 1998-99 and 2000 TMT internet bubble.
The" Nifty Fifty " was different because it wasn't built around a new technology, but around already mature, great companies. The 2005-07 subprime mortgage crisis was also different, as that was a financial invention, not a technological innovation. Nobody thought subprime loans would change housing; the houses themselves didn't change.
But this time , like the internet, it is a technological innovation that I believe will change the world. Most bubbles revolve around something new: 1969 was growth stocks, 2006 was subprime loans, 1999 was the internet, 1720 was the South Sea Company, and 1630 was Dutch tulip bulbs. Bubbles around new things are very real because imagination is unconstrained; you can imagine growth reaching for the sky.
Value stocks and boring stocks will never have bubbles; they are too plain. Question: So what is different this time compared to 1999 ? Howard Marks: The difference lies in clarity. I remember back then, we saw more clearly how the internet would change the world. In 1999 and 2000, many people's visions mostly came true later, especially e-commerce, which became a major force.
Today, I am not an expert, but I have never heard anyone clearly explain how AI will change the world. We know it's powerful , can think, process data, and access all information, but what does it actually do? How it becomes a business, how people will make money from it, and how it will impact our lives are not so clear.
Second, changing the world vs. investors making money. Question: In your talk with Edward Chancellor, you made two bold claims: First, AI will change the world. Second, most companies people are investing in today —those trying to make money from AI —will eventually become worthless. Why? Howard Marks: Changing the world and investors making money are not the same thing.
Buffett said back at the 2000 annual meeting regarding the internet:" There's no question that the internet will bring huge productivity gains, but whether it will have a positive impact on profitability remains unclear. "AI is the same way. While traveling, I saw CNN International airing a show where the host told a guest," You say AI has the power to eliminate half of all entry-level jobs.
"That was the only line from the whole conversation, and it might actually be true. If you could produce the entire U.S. GDP while eliminating half of those entry-level jobs, productivity would certainly be higher, but the question is: who gets the savings? If different companies compete to provide AI services, they might drive prices down to the point of unprofitability.
If those using AI are fighting for market share, all the savings might just flow to the consumer in the form of lower prices. So, how exactly this labor-saving tool called AI turns into profit is something no one can clearly explain. Third, the two easiest mistakes to make during a mania . Question: At a time like this, what mistakes should both naive investors and" captured "smart investors avoid?
Howard Marks: I see two things in a mania. First, you shouldn't assume today's leaders will necessarily be tomorrow's leaders. They likely will be , but you shouldn't bet your life savings on it. Second, you shouldn't think that buying laggards is a good idea just because the leaders are expensive and they happen to be cheap.
People will say their probability of success is low, but if they do succeed, the returns will be massive, so I should buy. That’s what I call a lottery ticket mentality. If the probability of success is low, you have to accept that it also means the possibility of failure is very high. Question: So how do you choose?
Howard Marks: You can make a binary bet, wagering on companies that have nothing but AI, with no revenue or profit today . If it works, it’s a moonshot; if it doesn't, it goes to zero. Or, you can invest in a great tech company that already exists and is already making a lot of money—where AI is an incremental benefit, not a total transformation.
It's a choice that depends on your style. If you want to make a binary bet on a new company, you must understand how high the risk is. Fourth, can you invest in gold and Bitcoin? Question: Gold recently rose to over $ 4,000 an ounce, and Bitcoin has fallen about a third from its October high to $ 90,000.
You previously said in a memo that believing in gold is like believing in God—you either believe or you don't; there is no way to analyze it. You and your son Andrew have debated this many times. What is your view now? Howard Marks: What a value investor does— whether it's for a company, a bond, or a building—is first calculate its intrinsic value, then see how today's price compares to that intrinsic value.
Intrinsic value, without exception, comes from its ability to earn money, make a profit, and generate cash flow. If a building earns $ 1 million a year and I want to sell it for $ 12 million, but you want an 8%return and offer $ 8 million for a 12%return, we can negotiate a range. But oil has no intrinsic value.
In 2007, oil was $ 67, then it hit $ 140, and later $ 35; the oil itself didn't change—it's still black and still flammable. Gold and Bitcoin are the same; their value is just what the market is willing to pay. Ask a gold or Bitcoin fan," What do you think the price will be in a year? "How do they reach that conclusion?
What is the basis for it? There is no cash flow to serve as a foundation. Q: So is your stance that of Howard Marks? You can buy gold out of superstition, because you think it will rise, or because it's a store of value, but you cannot invest in it analytically based on intrinsic value. I still think so today.
Those who bought gold a year ago made a fortune, but don't be blinded by the gains of the last month. I checked the numbers at noon: if you bought gold at the end of 2010, the annualized return is 7.7%, while the S&P 500 during the same period is 12.7%. It's not a disaster, but it has always been a mediocre investment.
Opportunities in credit assets after the sea change. Q: You wrote" Sea Change "in December 2022 , saying an era has ended and we can no longer rely on the falling interest rates seen since 1980. You said investors can now get steady returns from credit instruments without relying so much on high-risk investments.
How can average investors take advantage of opportunities like high-yield bonds? Howard Marks: High-yield bonds belong to a category I call lending assets, which others call debt, fixed income, bonds, notes, or loans. You give money to someone, they rent it from you, promise to pay interest semi-annually, and repay the principal at maturity; you can calculate the rate of return.
It's called fixed income because the outcome is fixed; it's a contractual relationship. Once you buy it, the interest rate is set, the maturity price is set, and you've paid a fixed price, leaving only one variable in the equation. Will they fulfill their promise of interest and principal payments? Evaluating that probability is the job of a credit analyst.
Q: What about amateur investors? Howard Marks: Credit analysis is very mysterious; you can't say" I like their burgers, so I'll buy their bonds. "Those are two different things. Remember Charlie Munger's words: investing is not easy, and those who think it is are foolish. So in most fields, amateurs should buy funds, ETFs, or managed products.
In the investment business, achieving average returns is easy, while exceeding them is hard. But if you're satisfied with average returns, you can buy managed products at a relatively low cost and have a high probability of attaining them. Investment-grade bond yields are currently around 7%, with other credit forms slightly higher, and there are many products that can provide this for you.
6. How do you deal with uncertainty and maintain composure? As Elroy Dimson famously said," Risk means more things can happen than will happen. "The range of what might happen today is wider than in the past. As an investor—and as an ordinary person talking to your children and grandchildren—how do you stay calm during such times?
Howard Marks: The hardest questions to answer are the ones that begin with" how. "I can tell you that you should stay calm, and I can tell you that if you want safety, you should use a more defensive portfolio, but the" how "of making that decision is difficult. Naturally, if you let your emotions lead you, buying when things are exciting usually means high prices, and selling when things are depressing usually means low prices ; it will be very counterproductive.
Therefore, maintaining composure is essential. This brings us back to not being overly active, not trading constantly, and not just" doing something. "Einstein once said," I never think of the future—it comes soon enough. "Is he serious? Howard Marks: I am no futurist, and I don't believe my view of the future is necessarily more accurate than anyone else's.
The future is not a single thing; it’s not something you can figure out just by being smart enough, and then it happens to prove you right. It is a probability distribution—a range of possibilities. Next year's GDP , inflation, election winners, and geopolitical peace are all the same: only one thing will happen, but many things could happen.
You have to accept that this introduces uncertainty into the equation. You shouldn't form a certainty around a single outcome and bet heavily on it, unless you possess professional expertise, which very few people have. So, humility is a great way to stay out of trouble. Question: What is truly the most important thing in investing?
Howard Marks: Investing works over the long term not by accident; it is not a pinball machine or a game of roulette. It is because the economy grows and companies improve their profitability over time. The most important thing for an investor is to get on this train and stay on it. Invest early, don't fuss over market timing, buying and selling at the right moment, or trying to pick the stocks that will rise the most—those are just decorations on the periphery.
The most important thing is to be a long-term investor. 7. Cautious people cannot write great poems. You have quoted that cautious people rarely make mistakes, but they also don't write great poems. How do you choose? Howard Marks: Everyone has to decide for themselves: do I want to try to make a great bet and get rich if I’m right, or do I want to avoid mistakes and ensure I’m still okay if I’m wrong?
It’s a choice; you can’t have it both ways. You can try to do both, but you must focus your weight on one side. Life is uncertain, the future is uncertain, and investing is uncertain. Are you going to chase winners, or are you going to try to avoid losers? Eight : Live life on your own terms. You spoke with Elton Ston back in 1983 about the importance of a balanced life .
You’ve played tennis, and for over 40 years, you’ve played chess with Bruce Newberg, spending thousands of hours playing cards, buying property, renovating, and being with your grandchildren. For those who have to work incredibly hard to compete, and don’t want to look back and say," I made a lot of money, but I never spent time with my family, "what advice do you have?
Howard Marks: We all have to choose what is important to us. Charlie Munger often said," That guy is a maniac. "A maniac is someone who only cares about working hard and making money. You have to decide if that’s your cup of tea; it’s not mine. The ultimate saying is that no one on their deathbed says," I wish I had worked more.
"I think that’s true. The quote I use most often when advising young people is from author Christopher Morley:" There is only one success: to be able to spend your life in your own way. "The hard part is figuring out what your way is. When you’re 22 and planning your career, what will make you happy at 70?
It’s not easy to know, as we change, but our goal should be that when we reach the finish line, we are satisfied with the choices we made. It should be a conscious choice, not just because everyone else is chasing it, the media hypes it up, or you want to be the richest person in the world—unless it truly suits you.
I don’t think it suits most people. Question: What is your current state? Howard Marks: My idol, Warren Buffett, always says he" tap-dances to work "in the morning, and I feel the same way. I am very happy to go to work, I love what I do, and I hope to keep doing it for a long time. That’s it for this episode.
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