저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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차마스는 비트코인이 2024년 현물 ETF 승인을 계기로 주류 편입되는 해가 될 것이라 주장하며, 10만 달러 이상(장기적으로 100만 달러)까지 갈 수 있다고 전망한다. 연준의 과잉 통화 발행과 재정 적자 우려를 근거로 비트코인을 신뢰 상실에 대한 헤지 자산으로 본다. 한편 M2 축소와 인플레이션 둔화, 연내 금리 인하 전망을 근거로 주식시장(특히 기술주)에도 긍정적 견해를 보인다.
다듬은 글
I think this is the most important year for Bitcoin that has ever existed we are probably days away from a series of ETFs being approved and so this is the moment for Bitcoin to to use that old term cross the chasm and really see mainstream adoption where our parents and our grandparents understand what it is can buy it and then do buy it and I think that if all of this comes to pass Bitcoin will be a part of the traditional Financial lexicon by the end of 2024 so that is my most anticipated trend of the Year welcome back to money 101 in today's discussion chamoth from the all-in podcast shares his insights on the future of Bitcoin prices and the significant influx of institutional Capital into the crypto Market according to chamoth the upcoming bu Bull Run is poised to surpass recent historical Trends the imminent approval of black Rock's Bitcoin ETF by the SEC is a crucial signal for a massive Capital surge into the crypto space recent weeks have witnessed rapid increases in cryptocurrency prices heightening investor anticipation for ETF approvals that could unleash substantial Capital into the crypto sphere shth highlights that a mere 1% allocation of black rocks portfolio could result in hundreds of billions of institutional dollars entering the market anticipating a 400% surge in Bitcoin prices reaching a minimum of $100,000 chamath points out that this projection aligns with the Bitcoin having timeline suggesting a potential record-breaking crypto surge in the coming months join us for the full interview with shth where he delves into crypto price predictions bitcoin's timeline and the outlook for the days and weeks ahead if you find this content valuable don't forget to subscribe be to the channel to show your support where is it going it's probably going to 100 than 150 than 200,000 in what period I don't know 5 years 10 years but it's going there and the reason is because every time you see all of this stuff happening it just reminds you that wow our leaders are not as trustworthy and reliable as they used to be and so just in case we really do need to have some kind of you know insurance we can keep under our pillow that gives us some access to an uncorrelated hedge this is now the beginning of the new fiscal year for the entire mutual fund complex so that's trillions of dollars that have to get deployed because even though you pay them a very small fee per year you're not paying them to hold cash you're paying them to make decisions and own assets and then as you said freedberg the last part of this is now you introduce rate cuts and that's a real accelerate now more than likely I think what that means is that markets are set up to to do pretty well Equity markets specifically what is all of this saying I think what what it's kind of saying is inflation is very much in the rearview mirror rates are going to get cut by the middle part of the year the economy looks like it's going to be a soft Landing when we were doing a lot of forecasting going into this cycle here's like a couple of really interesting observations so the first one is when you look at this M2 money supply look how much it's actually shrunk now why that's interesting to me is that you have these two forces that are opposing each other one is we have these huge deficits so we're technically still frankly issuing a lot of money right but then on the other side we we have QT so when debt rolls off we're not reissuing it and the balance of that is still a really constructive thing where now you can see that you know M2 has materially started to shrink and I think that that's a really positive thing because now what that does it it combats inflation in a good way unfortunately for all of us it hurts Financial assets which is not so good I think we've all felt that pain but the reality is that that's been working so then Nick if you go to the second chart so what you see now is like we are in a really decent place with inflation and if you think about what's going to happen over the next 6 months it's mostly in the bag and meaning we talked about this before but there's a lag effect on a handful of components specifically rents with which when you roll them into this inflation rate you're going to see it really really turn over very quickly right so we know that inflation is falling it's going to fall even more the second thing Nick the third chart here is you can see that now validated in these 10-year break events remember this was the chart we used to look at when we were like holy ma well something's going to break in November of 21 I think we probably should have just sold everything we had in November 21 we didn't do it but but the point is now we know and what you see here is the 10-year break evens are also telling us okay guys we're going to be in a pretty decent place and so I think the setup is basically the following there's less money in the system that's a positive Nick if you show the last chart there's more money on the sidelines and this is just a picture of I mean look at the amount of money in Money Market funds 6 trillion and growing so that's a really positive sign which which is that money will need to find a home once uh no even just now because you're going to you're going to be in a situation where and I'll get to this in a second but companies are now starting to perform because they've been able to rebaseline against very very lower expectations right and and money managers have to do their job and deploy capital and that's something we mentioned I think last week but this is now the beginning of the new fiscal year for the entire mutual fund complex so that's trillions of that have to get deployed because even though you pay them a very small fee per year you're not paying them to hold cash you're paying them to make decisions and own assets and then as you said freedberg the last part of this is now you introduce rate cuts and that's a real accelerate now more than likely I think what that means is that markets are set up to to do pretty well Equity markets specifically and so I went and I said well how can we see some data that proves that this is happening and what's amazing is if you look at the performance of what I would call the most risk adjusted seeking companies so those are Tech businesses that have been absolutely hammered so what is all of this saying I think what what it's kind of saying is inflation is very much in the rearview mirror rates are going to get cut by the middle part of the year the economy looks like it's going to be a soft Landing it's also good for equities it's good for us so it's really interesting actually I think we've had a fundamental kind of now Chang I mean can you play the clip in 2012 and 13 when it was at 200 and everybody was laughing at me on CPC every time I would talk about Bitcoin um where is it going it's probably going to 100 then 150 then 200,000 and the reason is because every time you see all of this stuff happening it just reminds you that wow our leaders are not as trustworthy and reliable as they used to be and so just in case we really do need to have some kind of you know insurance we can keep under our pillow that gives us some access to an uncorrelated hedge and it's going to eventually transition to something much more important but for right now you're just getting all these data points that prove this thing it's just the fabric of society is frayed and until we figure out how to make it better it's time to just have a little uh schmuck insurance on the side and everybody's running in it's just an incredible thing I could never have imagined it it is out of control like look let's Bitcoin let's talk Bitcoin 200 2012 I was introduced to it I started to accumulate accumulate 2013 I wrote an article and hold on just so we just so we know we can feel bad about ourselves you're accumulating it at what price uh well my dollar cost average is around hundred and something and and you've held it everything You' bought well at one point myself and you know two so I was introduced to it by a person I asked him if I could disclose his name he said no but he myself and another person all of us relatively well known in the valley we went we started at one point we owned almost 5% of the entire Flo in 2013 uh We've sold they've sold etc etc I wish we had kept it all we didn't uh it's fine um but then I wrote an article and I said you know what there's so much asymmetric upside here this is a thing that either goes to you know at the time I said roughly the value of gold and at the time it was about $100 a coin and so there's very little downside there's all this asymmetric upside I said said take 1% of your net worth and buy this schmuck insurance and it's a schmuck Insurance in this kind of very elegant beautiful wind I missed it I missed theu insurance that was at $100 though what would you I mean I I I actually started hearing from people that I know very well who don't often invest who are now asking me if this is the time to buy SM insurance now here's here's the thing this is now a confidence game right there is no real utility in this this is a fantastic fundamental hedge and store of value against Auto ratic regimes and banking infrastructure that we know is corrosive to how the world needs to work properly you cannot have central banks infinitely printing currency you cannot have folks with you know misguided and misdirected monetary and fiscal Poli no um so here's what I would say the same way that I said in 2013 put 1% of your net worth into Bitcoin I will put myself out there today I think this thing is a $100,000 a coin probably in the next 3 to 4 years and I think it is in the next 20 years a million dollars a CO so there you have it what I'm saying is you could buy the S&P 500 Index buy 99% of that so if you have $100 to invest what I'm saying is but $1 but $1 and and the reason that $1 is so valuable is that it is fundamentally not correlated to the other 99 and just on the off chance that all the people that manage the 99 may not totally know what they're doing the $1 may actually save us the cryptocurrency market is on the verge of experiencing a substantial surge in prices according to chamoth he emphasizes bitcoin's current undervaluation attracting investors and enticing speculators eager to capitalize on the price fluctuations observed in September for potential profits chat's optimistic Outlook is driven by the anticipated wave of mass adoption which he views as an unprecedented opportunity to participate in the Market's growth he foresees a race toward a six-figure price Target unfolding in less less than a year additionally he points to the historical pattern of bitcoin's value surging 10 times with each having event suggesting a potential jump from $10,000 to an astonishing $100,000 in 2024 chamath criticizes the Federal Reserve and central banks for hollow promises resulting in excessive money Printing and a proliferation of poor investments in the aftermath of the recent inflation surge he contends that a return to the status quo is unlikely asserting that the economy is spiraling out of control leading to a mounting US debt crisis shth presents two Grim possibilities hyperinflation or a deflationary depression both of which would significantly deteriorate overall quality of life despite the severity of the crisis he notes a lack of viable Solutions notably chamath highlights how political figures are now discussing Bitcoin as a potential solution indicating a shift toward a Bitcoin Centric Financial framework work share your thoughts on sheth's bitcoin prediction the crypto market cap and the influx of institutional Capital by commenting below thank you for watching don't forget to hit the like button and subscribe for more content like this stay tuned for our next video
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